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Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 749. (Read 3917635 times)

legendary
Activity: 2072
Merit: 1006
this space intentionally left blank
With all the scam talk revolving around activeminer and labcoin, I think that people will come to realize that there is substantial value in knowing for sure that ASICminer is a legitimate business with a solid history, prices should rise after this mess over at those stocks.

Its obvious now that there are liquidity problems. AM saw a bump after BTCGarden failed and will see further bumps as other competitors fail, just as the simple announcements for AMC / Activeminer and labcoin caused AM prices to drop.

Now what I don't understand is the now very obvious inverse correlation between BTC / fiat exchange rate and AM shares. If anything, an increase in BTC / fiat exchange rate should bolster AM share prices because fixed expenses (data centers, bandwidth, manufacturing) are paid in fiat, not in BTC. An increase in BTC / fiat exchange subsequently decreases the percentage of BTC that needs to be exchanged to cover those costs and increases the percentage of BTC that can either be retained or paid in dividends. Therefore an increase in BTC / fiat should increase the value (in BTC) of AM shares, but instead the opposite has happened consistently for several months.

This makes absolutely no sense to me. If anyone has any theories for this, I'm all ears.



That's because in some peoples' minds the BTC/USD is inversely tied to difficulty.

Increased difficulty means either
- lower dividend expectation at constant fixed costs
- stable dividend expectation at higher fixed costs (new hardware necessary).

Both have negative effect on expected revenue, thus prompting to sell.

Also, the BTC/USD spike is biggest on mtgox and should thus be disregarded / discounted.

legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1094
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
I have collected some management pieces from The Business Cat song:
and linked them all together. Check it out Smiley

http://youtu.be/qNhycX0XCJ0

That should shed some soundful light onto how things are being run by cats Smiley

I don't know why but this amused me
Make your lyrics into a youtube video perhaps to challenge the best bitcoin song so far
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WdrSP0V-KLg

Therefore an increase in BTC / fiat should increase the value (in BTC) of AM shares, but instead the opposite has happened consistently for several months.

This makes absolutely no sense to me. If anyone has any theories for this, I'm all ears.

As the value of each bitcoin increases in value, the share value of AM which is measured in bitcoin decreases relative to other prices meaning that as we see higher prices it cost less bitcoin per share of AM.
Lower prices mean it cost more bitcoin per share of AM.

(edit other posts above are also correct)
donator
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1080
Gerald Davis
With all the scam talk revolving around activeminer and labcoin, I think that people will come to realize that there is substantial value in knowing for sure that ASICminer is a legitimate business with a solid history, prices should rise after this mess over at those stocks.

Its obvious now that there are liquidity problems. AM saw a bump after BTCGarden failed and will see further bumps as other competitors fail, just as the simple announcements for AMC / Activeminer and labcoin caused AM prices to drop.

Now what I don't understand is the now very obvious inverse correlation between BTC / fiat exchange rate and AM shares. If anything, an increase in BTC / fiat exchange rate should bolster AM share prices because fixed expenses (data centers, bandwidth, manufacturing) are paid in fiat, not in BTC. An increase in BTC / fiat exchange subsequently decreases the percentage of BTC that needs to be exchanged to cover those costs and increases the percentage of BTC that can either be retained or paid in dividends. Therefore an increase in BTC / fiat should increase the value (in BTC) of AM shares, but instead the opposite has happened consistently for several months.

This makes absolutely no sense to me. If anyone has any theories for this, I'm all ears.



Very simple solution people have BTC and the are speculating on a rise in the fiat value of that BTC.  They see ASICMiner as a was to "boost" their returns.  If BTC exchange rate triples well you tripled your money BUT if BTC exchange rate triples AND you get 30% dividend you quadrupled your money.

These "investors" are very weak hands.  They are essentially using ASICMiner like a weekly money market funds.   When the exchange rate spikes they want to sell some BTC for USD, except to do that they need to sell ASICMiner shares for BTC first.


legendary
Activity: 2072
Merit: 1006
this space intentionally left blank
With all the scam talk revolving around activeminer and labcoin, I think that people will come to realize that there is substantial value in knowing for sure that ASICminer is a legitimate business with a solid history, prices should rise after this mess over at those stocks.

Its obvious now that there are liquidity problems. AM saw a bump after BTCGarden failed and will see further bumps as other competitors fail, just as the simple announcements for AMC / Activeminer and labcoin caused AM prices to drop.

Now what I don't understand is the now very obvious inverse correlation between BTC / fiat exchange rate and AM shares. If anything, an increase in BTC / fiat exchange rate should bolster AM share prices because fixed expenses (data centers, bandwidth, manufacturing) are paid in fiat, not in BTC. An increase in BTC / fiat exchange subsequently decreases the percentage of BTC that needs to be exchanged to cover those costs and increases the percentage of BTC that can either be retained or paid in dividends. Therefore an increase in BTC / fiat should increase the value (in BTC) of AM shares, but instead the opposite has happened consistently for several months.

This makes absolutely no sense to me. If anyone has any theories for this, I'm all ears.



That's because in some peoples' minds the BTC/USD is inversely tied to difficulty.
Also, the BTC/USD spike is biggest on mtgox and should thus be disregarded / discounted.

sr. member
Activity: 310
Merit: 250
With all the scam talk revolving around activeminer and labcoin, I think that people will come to realize that there is substantial value in knowing for sure that ASICminer is a legitimate business with a solid history, prices should rise after this mess over at those stocks.

Its obvious now that there are liquidity problems. AM saw a bump after BTCGarden failed and will see further bumps as other competitors fail, just as the simple announcements for AMC / Activeminer and labcoin caused AM prices to drop.

Now what I don't understand is the now very obvious inverse correlation between BTC / fiat exchange rate and AM shares. If anything, an increase in BTC / fiat exchange rate should bolster AM share prices because fixed expenses (data centers, bandwidth, manufacturing) are paid in fiat, not in BTC. An increase in BTC / fiat exchange subsequently decreases the percentage of BTC that needs to be exchanged to cover those costs and increases the percentage of BTC that can either be retained or paid in dividends. Therefore an increase in BTC / fiat should increase the value (in BTC) of AM shares, but instead the opposite has happened consistently for several months.

This makes absolutely no sense to me. If anyone has any theories for this, I'm all ears.

sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
AM hashrate is back up. It seems to be the all time high, around 80TH/s.

this is called luck and variance

Often, some noobs under-estimate the effect of variance, and get crazy every 6 hours "it's up!", "it's down!".
But this time, I fully agree. This is not variance. They were undoubtedly having a low hashrate these last days, around 30TH/s, and they are now way higher. The possible range of this "way higher" is still large given that the increase is recent, but it will shrink over time and we should get a reasonable approximation in 48h. Personally, I think we will be higher than the previous high of ~60TH/s. I expect 80 or higher.

My hypothesis is that the recent low was due to some work required to extend the farm. Now the extension is being turned on... Welcome the new hash rate!  Smiley


Almost 48 hours later and it is clear that it wasn't just variance.   Grin
sr. member
Activity: 406
Merit: 250
Based on data here:
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/
I would bet 1BTC that we will see (at least once) the 24h-average equal or above 80TH/s, during the next 48h. Anybody takes it?
I'll take your bet.

Just a few more blocks in the next hours.. This is getting more exciting than I thought. Tongue
Little chance, but it IS still possible ^^

My sentiments exactly. I didn't expect so close result Cheesy
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 252
Based on data here:
http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/
I would bet 1BTC that we will see (at least once) the 24h-average equal or above 80TH/s, during the next 48h. Anybody takes it?
I'll take your bet.

Just a few more blocks in the next hours.. This is getting more exciting than I thought. Tongue
Little chance, but it IS still possible ^^ | 6 blocks in ~4h should be enough.




This image is just for illustration purposes. The actual hashrate can (and have to be be) calculated and verified from data in the blockchain.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
With all the scam talk revolving around activeminer and labcoin, I think that people will come to realize that there is substantial value in knowing for sure that ASICminer is a legitimate business with a solid history, prices should rise after this mess over at those stocks.
full member
Activity: 131
Merit: 100
With the last increasement in price of bitcoin, selling started again. It´s clear, with price higher the company gets more value, but actually its an overvalue.
Thats the only bad thing about investing in BTC, when BTC price is on the rise, share price will fall.
Cheap shares yeah, but lack of liquidity don´t let you sell your shares you hold as fast as you want too. Especially when price is increasing during sleeping time, because Bitcoin markets are open 24 hours. That´s another problem.
I know most people know this, but I just wanted to make that clear.

Yes indeed, I want to sell my btc now to make a decent profit. Too bad I invested 99% of my btc in asic mining, there is no way Im gonna sell them now :/
newbie
Activity: 13
Merit: 0
Is it possible that the "low transaction number per block" problem has been solved?
E.g. this block
http://blockchain.info/block-index/411874/0000000000000038473a6c40b4fd8b0c78eaa597292e2ebd1107b8fdfdbec11d
contains 619 transactions and 0.37 btc in transaction fees.

full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
Could the 2nd generation be officially here?

Also it appears as though ASICminer fixed their node problems, they discovered a block with 600+ transactions
full member
Activity: 173
Merit: 100
Anybody noticed the increased hashing power of ours? That put a smile on my face:)
full member
Activity: 223
Merit: 100
I have collected some management pieces from The Business Cat song:
and linked them all together. Check it out Smiley

http://youtu.be/qNhycX0XCJ0




Update
We have collected several shareholders' questions for answering.
Business Cat just called to make sure
That we're singing from the same hymn
sheet

There hasn't been a huge hardware dividend payoff: is it because of reduced margins, or delays?
Because we are collecting funds to get ready for the exponentially increased devices to be assembled in September and October.
That we're optimizing, synergizing
Our portfolio
Diversifying our assets
By investing in other kind of business pets

Why has the hashrate dropped the past weeks?
It dropped in different few days. Some of them are internal hardware/network glitches, some of them are luck based. We haven't identified any form of DDOS attacks recently though.

And he wants us to know before he's got to go
To the conference being held in Tokyo
That he'll take up the slack
And that he's got our back
When it comes to upper-management

How are things going regarding your business plan? Did you account for the sudden network hashrate increase? How is the international expansion of ASICminer coming along?
The business plan is unchanged. The network hashrate increase was still under our projection. The total hash target originally set for the end of this year would probably achieved earlier.
The ASICMiner expansion via franchising is still much within China border. The internationally deployed portion will dominate when the gain of operation cost outweigh the delay and cost of international shipping/assembling abroad.
Business Cat flies around the world
He's a first class guy
I'm his first class girl
You're also his secretary
Meow, meow, meow

But he's married to his job
'Cause he's Business Cat
Strictly business
On business
Doing all the business in his litter tray

Besides mining, hardware sales, and franchising, are there any other potential sources of revenue?
There are many possible ones considered, but none can support serious sound business model based on a 1-2billion dollar total market value of Bitcoin: selling patents, offering solution for mining farm construction, assembly service, etc.
Business Cat is back from the conference
He is filled with new found confidence
He's exploring the paradigm, blue-sky
thinking, pushing the envelope, touching
BASE

For more transparency, is it possible to share a wallet address for depositing income from ASICMINER hardware sales?
We use a different deposit address for each payment transaction. But a centralized nexus address is good. Then people could see how the funds are separated as dividends and expenses.
Business Cat wants to get some face time
See what you're bringing
To the table

Could we have an official live hashrate meter from ASICMINER?
We have an internal one, mainly for troubleshooting when some of the racks going down. The hashrate meter based on the blocks mined reflects more of the real speed (plus luck of course). We will buy more bandwidth before making it accessible by the whole internet. It also requires more commitment in maintenance.
Meow.
Meow, meow, meow.



That should shed some soundful light onto how things are being run by cats Smiley
hero member
Activity: 854
Merit: 1000
Bitcoin: The People's Bailout

Furthermore, the amount of info coming out of AM to the public is not any worse than your average corporation. To be candid, the forum and its 24-hour F5 mashers distort reality with a hunger for info (read: trading signals). Some of you pretend like info is something that is vastly needed and lacking for some kind of transparency or relief, but mostly they just want to know if they should buy/sell in their short-term trading efforts.

All the info you need to make trade decisions is already out there. Anything that is uncertain after that, is simply that.

Hopefully, friedcat doesn't let corporations on Wall Street set the bar when it comes to keeping shareholders informed.  I'd like to think that he's willing to hold AM to a higher standard.  AM, and bitcoin miners in general, are at a critical stage now.  With the total network hashrate rising as fast as it is and ROI on mining hardware dropping as fast as it is, a solid strategy is going to be required to remain competitive and maintain profitability.  How friedcat responds to this challenge is critical to long-term investors looking for dividend income, not just the short-term traders.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1001
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!
Furthermore, the amount of info coming out of AM to the public is not any worse than your average corporation. To be candid, the forum and its 24-hour F5 mashers distort reality with a hunger for info (read: trading signals). Some of you pretend like info is something that is vastly needed and lacking for some kind of transparency or relief, but mostly they just want to know if they should buy/sell in their short-term trading efforts.

All the info you need to make trade decisions is already out there. Anything that is uncertain after that, is simply that.

I disagree. While I have no reason to believe friedcat is being misleading, the level of disclosure of AM compared to a publicly-traded company in a bricks and mortar exchange is an order of magnitude less.

legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
I think his main critique is mainly pointed towards the recent decrease in share price. I don't think the decrease in share price is a failure of the pricing mechanism. It's rather the outcome of a liquidity crunch (more investment opportunities than capital, causing chronic undervaluation), combined with the deployment cycle of ASICMINER miner and their dividend policy.

I expect the share price to stabilize above 2 BTC/share. If it does not, it provides an incentive for previous owners to move back into the market.

I know you are an early investor and I presume a board member, so you have access to lots of information that most people don't have. But that is part of the problem with valuing AM as a run-of-the-mill investor. The market occasionally get short updates from Friedcat that give a general idea of where the company is going, without too many specifics.

Last week was a case in point. The dividend was low, so everyone dumped their shares in a panic. Then we were told some BTC was held back for gen 2 chips. What we *don't* know is:

- how long has Friedcat been holding back dividends
- how much has he held back
- how much more does he need to pay for the next gen
- how much stock is still on hand

etc etc

When the market operates in a near-vacuum of information, the only things we can go on are:

- the dividend
- the estimates of hashrate
- estimates of hardware sales
- any news about new competitors

which is why the share price bobs around like a cork in the ocean, as I'm sure it will continue to do until something changes. I think that's now a bigger factor than the lack of capital compared to investment opportunities.

I know this is hard to believe, and then hard to concede, but I can honestly say that I have yet to learn any special info from being a board member and then traded on that. I'm the newest one, so maybe there were times in the past where that wasn't true for others, but I recall hearing similar sentiments from a board member back then too.

If anything, being in the thick of it simply makes Friedcat's publicly provided info and timelines more believable. When you see a delay, that's when we see it too. We don't have our fingers on Friedcat's pulse like some might like to imagine.

The fact is, we all know the share price has more to do with speculation, fickle sentiment and panic more than anything.

Furthermore, the amount of info coming out of AM to the public is not any worse than your average corporation. To be candid, the forum and its 24-hour F5 mashers distort reality with a hunger for info (read: trading signals). Some of you pretend like info is something that is vastly needed and lacking for some kind of transparency or relief, but mostly they just want to know if they should buy/sell in their short-term trading efforts.

All the info you need to make trade decisions is already out there. Anything that is uncertain after that, is simply that.

Hmm, I believe you, but it is curious since presumably the point of being a board member is to participate in board meetings, where there are usually frank discussions of delays/issues and upcoming business strategies. I wouldn't think that any of that information would be appropriate to disclose to ordinary shareholders, but I would have assumed that board members would know more about what's going on.
legendary
Activity: 994
Merit: 1000
I think his main critique is mainly pointed towards the recent decrease in share price. I don't think the decrease in share price is a failure of the pricing mechanism. It's rather the outcome of a liquidity crunch (more investment opportunities than capital, causing chronic undervaluation), combined with the deployment cycle of ASICMINER miner and their dividend policy.

I expect the share price to stabilize above 2 BTC/share. If it does not, it provides an incentive for previous owners to move back into the market.

I know you are an early investor and I presume a board member, so you have access to lots of information that most people don't have. But that is part of the problem with valuing AM as a run-of-the-mill investor. The market occasionally get short updates from Friedcat that give a general idea of where the company is going, without too many specifics.

Last week was a case in point. The dividend was low, so everyone dumped their shares in a panic. Then we were told some BTC was held back for gen 2 chips. What we *don't* know is:

- how long has Friedcat been holding back dividends
- how much has he held back
- how much more does he need to pay for the next gen
- how much stock is still on hand

etc etc

When the market operates in a near-vacuum of information, the only things we can go on are:

- the dividend
- the estimates of hashrate
- estimates of hardware sales
- any news about new competitors

which is why the share price bobs around like a cork in the ocean, as I'm sure it will continue to do until something changes. I think that's now a bigger factor than the lack of capital compared to investment opportunities.

I know this is hard to believe, and then hard to concede, but I can honestly say that I have yet to learn any special info from being a board member and then traded on that. I'm the newest one, so maybe there were times in the past where that wasn't true for others, but I recall hearing similar sentiments from a board member back then too.

If anything, being in the thick of it simply makes Friedcat's publicly provided info and timelines more believable. When you see a delay, that's when we see it too. We don't have our fingers on Friedcat's pulse like some might like to imagine.

The fact is, we all know the share price has more to do with speculation, fickle sentiment and panic more than anything.

Furthermore, the amount of info coming out of AM to the public is not any worse than your average corporation. To be candid, the forum and its 24-hour F5 mashers distort reality with a hunger for info (read: trading signals). Some of you pretend like info is something that is vastly needed and lacking for some kind of transparency or relief, but mostly they just want to know if they should buy/sell in their short-term trading efforts.

All the info you need to make trade decisions is already out there. Anything that is uncertain after that, is simply that.

TAT, were you eb3full's buyer?

I know for certain that he didn't buy 200 of them.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 250
♫ the AM bear who cares ♫
I think his main critique is mainly pointed towards the recent decrease in share price. I don't think the decrease in share price is a failure of the pricing mechanism. It's rather the outcome of a liquidity crunch (more investment opportunities than capital, causing chronic undervaluation), combined with the deployment cycle of ASICMINER miner and their dividend policy.

I expect the share price to stabilize above 2 BTC/share. If it does not, it provides an incentive for previous owners to move back into the market.

I know you are an early investor and I presume a board member, so you have access to lots of information that most people don't have. But that is part of the problem with valuing AM as a run-of-the-mill investor. The market occasionally get short updates from Friedcat that give a general idea of where the company is going, without too many specifics.

Last week was a case in point. The dividend was low, so everyone dumped their shares in a panic. Then we were told some BTC was held back for gen 2 chips. What we *don't* know is:

- how long has Friedcat been holding back dividends
- how much has he held back
- how much more does he need to pay for the next gen
- how much stock is still on hand

etc etc

When the market operates in a near-vacuum of information, the only things we can go on are:

- the dividend
- the estimates of hashrate
- estimates of hardware sales
- any news about new competitors

which is why the share price bobs around like a cork in the ocean, as I'm sure it will continue to do until something changes. I think that's now a bigger factor than the lack of capital compared to investment opportunities.

I know this is hard to believe, and then hard to concede, but I can honestly say that I have yet to learn any special info from being a board member and then traded on that. I'm the newest one, so maybe there were times in the past where that wasn't true for others, but I recall hearing similar sentiments from a board member back then too.

If anything, being in the thick of it simply makes Friedcat's publicly provided info and timelines more believable. When you see a delay, that's when we see it too. We don't have our fingers on Friedcat's pulse like some might like to imagine.

The fact is, we all know the share price has more to do with speculation, fickle sentiment and panic more than anything.

Furthermore, the amount of info coming out of AM to the public is not any worse than your average corporation. To be candid, the forum and its 24-hour F5 mashers distort reality with a hunger for info (read: trading signals). Some of you pretend like info is something that is vastly needed and lacking for some kind of transparency or relief, but mostly they just want to know if they should buy/sell in their short-term trading efforts.

All the info you need to make trade decisions is already out there. Anything that is uncertain after that, is simply that.

TAT, were you eb3full's buyer?
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
I think his main critique is mainly pointed towards the recent decrease in share price. I don't think the decrease in share price is a failure of the pricing mechanism. It's rather the outcome of a liquidity crunch (more investment opportunities than capital, causing chronic undervaluation), combined with the deployment cycle of ASICMINER miner and their dividend policy.

I expect the share price to stabilize above 2 BTC/share. If it does not, it provides an incentive for previous owners to move back into the market.

I know you are an early investor and I presume a board member, so you have access to lots of information that most people don't have. But that is part of the problem with valuing AM as a run-of-the-mill investor. The market occasionally get short updates from Friedcat that give a general idea of where the company is going, without too many specifics.

Last week was a case in point. The dividend was low, so everyone dumped their shares in a panic. Then we were told some BTC was held back for gen 2 chips. What we *don't* know is:

- how long has Friedcat been holding back dividends
- how much has he held back
- how much more does he need to pay for the next gen
- how much stock is still on hand

etc etc

When the market operates in a near-vacuum of information, the only things we can go on are:

- the dividend
- the estimates of hashrate
- estimates of hardware sales
- any news about new competitors

which is why the share price bobs around like a cork in the ocean, as I'm sure it will continue to do until something changes. I think that's now a bigger factor than the lack of capital compared to investment opportunities.

I know this is hard to believe, and then hard to concede, but I can honestly say that I have yet to learn any special info from being a board member and then traded on that. I'm the newest one, so maybe there were times in the past where that wasn't true for others, but I recall hearing similar sentiments from a board member back then too.

If anything, being in the thick of it simply makes Friedcat's publicly provided info and timelines more believable. When you see a delay, that's when we see it too. We don't have our fingers on Friedcat's pulse like some might like to imagine.

The fact is, we all know the share price has more to do with speculation, fickle sentiment and panic more than anything.

Furthermore, the amount of info coming out of AM to the public is not any worse than your average corporation. To be candid, the forum and its 24-hour F5 mashers distort reality with a hunger for info (read: trading signals). Some of you pretend like info is something that is vastly needed and lacking for some kind of transparency or relief, but mostly they just want to know if they should buy/sell in their short-term trading efforts.

All the info you need to make trade decisions is already out there. Anything that is uncertain after that, is simply that.
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