Pretty much. Good analogy as, for you to profit above the $200 million investment,
it would be as likely as you would if you spent it on diamond-encrusted miners.
Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 804. (Read 3917468 times)
August 08, 2013, 10:28:23 AM
August 08, 2013, 10:25:58 AM
Let's say we agree that mining makes sense as an investment. Is there anything that suggests $200m would be a real number to use? What would you do with it - make diamond encrusted mining hardware?
August 08, 2013, 10:24:41 AM
Again please...
Where do I buy - ASICMINER Block Erupter Blade ?
At a good price?
any reliable source?
Where do I buy - ASICMINER Block Erupter Blade ?
At a good price?
any reliable source?
August 08, 2013, 10:23:38 AM
The market cap of mining is much higher than it first appears. You have the capital invested in shares of companies, the capital invested in pre-orders, capital invested in secondary ventures (board manufacturers awaiting chips, etc). Add all of that up and you have a huge pie, irrespective of the current market cap of BTC. And it is getting larger every day. The two may be tethered, but they are not interdependent.
Most investors invest in what they understand. Many understand manufacturing. It's a known wheelhouse, with numbers they can crunch quite easily. Other types of infrastructure improvements don't necessarily model easily when you are looking for specific profit metrics. Manufacturing chips is proven. Building an exchange or a better wallet, not so much. It is an ideal entry point.
Most investors invest in what they understand. Many understand manufacturing. It's a known wheelhouse, with numbers they can crunch quite easily. Other types of infrastructure improvements don't necessarily model easily when you are looking for specific profit metrics. Manufacturing chips is proven. Building an exchange or a better wallet, not so much. It is an ideal entry point.
August 08, 2013, 10:22:14 AM
Agreed. If you have $1bn+ then you are not interested in taking $200M and attempting to make 2-3x your money in a risky investment. You are interested in making 10X your money in an investment which will nearly guarantee you the return of capital at the worst.
A replacement for paypal using bitcoin could make billions. A mining company (without the massive appreciation of bitcoin) will never do this. Avalon could be getting an investment but it's not going to be for more than $20m - that's my prediction. Even that is high, since you could start your own company for less than half of that.
A replacement for paypal using bitcoin could make billions. A mining company (without the massive appreciation of bitcoin) will never do this. Avalon could be getting an investment but it's not going to be for more than $20m - that's my prediction. Even that is high, since you could start your own company for less than half of that.
August 08, 2013, 10:17:47 AM
now, I just need $200M to invest...
August 08, 2013, 10:14:00 AM
$200 million, so 20% of bitcoin's market cap?
Right.
Right.
Exactly, they may be able to make more than 20% of the market cap back if they
take (a lot of) orders in other currencies, but if most of it is in BTC how long do
you think a ROI for that investor will take?
If I had $200 million to invest in bitcoin I'd be spending on infrastructure like exchanges, payment services, wallets with new features, etc. Basically things that are needed to make bitcoin useful to the other 99%.
Mining only has a small 'moat'. The barriers to entry are not all that high, as we have seen. You can only distinguish mining players based on execution, and incumbents can stumble and fall. So why spend so much to fight for a pie that is not getting any bigger at the moment?
Mining only has a small 'moat'. The barriers to entry are not all that high, as we have seen. You can only distinguish mining players based on execution, and incumbents can stumble and fall. So why spend so much to fight for a pie that is not getting any bigger at the moment?
Also, investing in infrastructure will only make the rest of the market as a whole
more lucrative. They'd be smart to invest just $10-20 million in mining prospects
and $80-90 in infrastructure.
e: Also it seems people are sliding over this. I think for $200 million any current mining operation would simply sell.
August 08, 2013, 10:11:25 AM
If I had $200 million to invest in bitcoin I'd be spending on infrastructure like exchanges, payment services, wallets with new features, etc. Basically things that are needed to make bitcoin useful to the other 99%.
Mining only has a small 'moat'. The barriers to entry are not all that high, as we have seen. You can only distinguish mining players based on execution, and incumbents can stumble and fall. So why spend so much to fight for a pie that is not getting any bigger at the moment?
Mining only has a small 'moat'. The barriers to entry are not all that high, as we have seen. You can only distinguish mining players based on execution, and incumbents can stumble and fall. So why spend so much to fight for a pie that is not getting any bigger at the moment?
August 08, 2013, 10:02:55 AM
Why would any experienced investor give $200 million to a small ASIC startup? With that massive sum of money, you could start your own company, hire some of the best chip developers in the world, tape out at 22nm, and fund a small, personal datacenter to secure/run it all.
Why does anyone buy a company when they could just start their own?
August 08, 2013, 10:00:43 AM
I think Avalon is really going to get the $200 million investment. [...] I think it is a done deal, and Avalon will be pushing ahead with 28nm chip manufacturing. $200 million will certainly get them there, leaving pretty much everyone in the dust.
I must be missing something here..
Why would any experienced investor give $200 million to a small ASIC startup? With that massive sum of money, you could start your own company, hire some of the best chip developers in the world, tape out at 22nm, and fund a small, personal datacenter to secure/run it all.
I don't doubt that high level investors are looking at options, but I do doubt they're making moves in such a massively volatile environment.
August 08, 2013, 09:59:24 AM
I think Avalon is really going to get the $200 million investment. [...] I think it is a done deal, and Avalon will be pushing ahead with 28nm chip manufacturing. $200 million will certainly get them there, leaving pretty much everyone in the dust.
I must be missing something here..
Why would any experienced investor give $200 million to a small ASIC startup? With that massive sum of money, you could start your own company, hire some of the best chip developers in the world, tape out at 22nm, and fund a small, personal datacenter to secure/run it all.
I don't doubt that high level investors are looking at options, but I do doubt they're making moves in such a massively volatile environment.
anyone that has $200M to invest in ASIC tech would have done enough research to realize that AM is the industry leader and has the best track record, thus makes for the best place to put your money. And, as I recall, AM is already developing the next gen of chips, so it makes sense to invest in AM over Avalon.
But, I don't think there is $200M of VC money trying to find it's way into the ASIC market.
But, I don't think there is $200M of VC money trying to find it's way into the ASIC market.
This ^^
August 08, 2013, 09:57:25 AM
I have been considering an interesting scenario lately, and thought I would post this for comment. I think Avalon is really going to get the $200 million investment. Yifu has been incommunicado for nearly a month, and now he has "just gotten off the plane" and will make a "big announcement tomorrow". I know the WSJ article has been "debunked" but that is exactly what I would expect to have happen to leak when the parties are under NDA. I think it is a done deal, and Avalon will be pushing ahead with 28nm chip manufacturing. $200 million will certainly get them there, leaving pretty much everyone in the dust.
This was almost certainly going to happen sooner or later. ASIC development and sales are so red hot that it was only a matter of time before a mega investor saw an opportunity to position itself as the industry leader.
Friedcat has been very quiet lately himself. If this deal was indeed going through I find it unlikely FC did not hear whispers about it. Is it possible FC is courting a major VC deal as well? If the Avalon thing comes to pass, even the mightly FC might find his back against the wall.
I have no doubt real Wall Street money is looking hard at the opportunities for entry into the ASIC space. It has grown exponentially and shows no signs of slowing. I think the ASIC space will be almost unrecognizable 6 months from now. Things are changing so fast I can barely keep up with my own investments.
This was almost certainly going to happen sooner or later. ASIC development and sales are so red hot that it was only a matter of time before a mega investor saw an opportunity to position itself as the industry leader.
Friedcat has been very quiet lately himself. If this deal was indeed going through I find it unlikely FC did not hear whispers about it. Is it possible FC is courting a major VC deal as well? If the Avalon thing comes to pass, even the mightly FC might find his back against the wall.
I have no doubt real Wall Street money is looking hard at the opportunities for entry into the ASIC space. It has grown exponentially and shows no signs of slowing. I think the ASIC space will be almost unrecognizable 6 months from now. Things are changing so fast I can barely keep up with my own investments.
anyone that has $200M to invest in ASIC tech would have done enough research to realize that AM is the industry leader and has the best track record, thus makes for the best place to put your money. And, as I recall, AM is already developing the next gen of chips, so it makes sense to invest in AM over Avalon.
But, I don't think there is $200M of VC money trying to find it's way into the ASIC market.
August 08, 2013, 09:57:16 AM
not this bullshit again..
August 08, 2013, 09:54:54 AM
I have been considering an interesting scenario lately, and thought I would post this for comment. I think Avalon is really going to get the $200 million investment. Yifu has been incommunicado for nearly a month, and now he has "just gotten off the plane" and will make a "big announcement tomorrow". I know the WSJ article has been "debunked" but that is exactly what I would expect to have happen to leak when the parties are under NDA. I think it is a done deal, and Avalon will be pushing ahead with 28nm chip manufacturing. $200 million will certainly get them there, leaving pretty much everyone in the dust.
This was almost certainly going to happen sooner or later. ASIC development and sales are so red hot that it was only a matter of time before a mega investor saw an opportunity to position itself as the industry leader.
Friedcat has been very quiet lately himself. If this deal was indeed going through I find it unlikely FC did not hear whispers about it. Is it possible FC is courting a major VC deal as well? If the Avalon thing comes to pass, even the mightly FC might find his back against the wall.
I have no doubt real Wall Street money is looking hard at the opportunities for entry into the ASIC space. It has grown exponentially and shows no signs of slowing. I think the ASIC space will be almost unrecognizable 6 months from now. Things are changing so fast I can barely keep up with my own investments.
I've been considering a similar scenario myself. While I obviously hope this isn't the route we end up on, in the meantime we're all essentially taking shots in the dark with these IPOs.This was almost certainly going to happen sooner or later. ASIC development and sales are so red hot that it was only a matter of time before a mega investor saw an opportunity to position itself as the industry leader.
Friedcat has been very quiet lately himself. If this deal was indeed going through I find it unlikely FC did not hear whispers about it. Is it possible FC is courting a major VC deal as well? If the Avalon thing comes to pass, even the mightly FC might find his back against the wall.
I have no doubt real Wall Street money is looking hard at the opportunities for entry into the ASIC space. It has grown exponentially and shows no signs of slowing. I think the ASIC space will be almost unrecognizable 6 months from now. Things are changing so fast I can barely keep up with my own investments.
Only time will tell, but I'm eagerly awaiting an update from Friedcat. If large investors have jumped into scene, I doubt he wouldn't have heard about it.
For those interested, this is the announcement he's referring to: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/incoming-avalon-news-892013-269950
August 08, 2013, 09:53:47 AM
I have been considering an interesting scenario lately, and thought I would post this for comment. I think Avalon is really going to get the $200 million investment. Yifu has been incommunicado for nearly a month, and now he has "just gotten off the plane" and will make a "big announcement tomorrow". I know the WSJ article has been "debunked" but that is exactly what I would expect to have happen to leak when the parties are under NDA. I think it is a done deal, and Avalon will be pushing ahead with 28nm chip manufacturing. $200 million will certainly get them there, leaving pretty much everyone in the dust.
This was almost certainly going to happen sooner or later. ASIC development and sales are so red hot that it was only a matter of time before a mega investor saw an opportunity to position itself as the industry leader.
Friedcat has been very quiet lately himself. If this deal was indeed going through I find it unlikely FC did not hear whispers about it. Is it possible FC is courting a major VC deal as well? If the Avalon thing comes to pass, even the mightly FC might find his back against the wall.
I have no doubt real Wall Street money is looking hard at the opportunities for entry into the ASIC space. It has grown exponentially and shows no signs of slowing. I think the ASIC space will be almost unrecognizable 6 months from now. Things are changing so fast I can barely keep up with my own investments.
This was almost certainly going to happen sooner or later. ASIC development and sales are so red hot that it was only a matter of time before a mega investor saw an opportunity to position itself as the industry leader.
Friedcat has been very quiet lately himself. If this deal was indeed going through I find it unlikely FC did not hear whispers about it. Is it possible FC is courting a major VC deal as well? If the Avalon thing comes to pass, even the mightly FC might find his back against the wall.
I have no doubt real Wall Street money is looking hard at the opportunities for entry into the ASIC space. It has grown exponentially and shows no signs of slowing. I think the ASIC space will be almost unrecognizable 6 months from now. Things are changing so fast I can barely keep up with my own investments.
Maybe that's what's moving this 2000 share whale to sell!
August 08, 2013, 09:40:09 AM
I have been considering an interesting scenario lately, and thought I would post this for comment. I think Avalon is really going to get the $200 million investment. Yifu has been incommunicado for nearly a month, and now he has "just gotten off the plane" and will make a "big announcement tomorrow". I know the WSJ article has been "debunked" but that is exactly what I would expect to have happen to leak when the parties are under NDA. I think it is a done deal, and Avalon will be pushing ahead with 28nm chip manufacturing. $200 million will certainly get them there, leaving pretty much everyone in the dust.
This was almost certainly going to happen sooner or later. ASIC development and sales are so red hot that it was only a matter of time before a mega investor saw an opportunity to position itself as the industry leader.
Friedcat has been very quiet lately himself. If this deal was indeed going through I find it unlikely FC did not hear whispers about it. Is it possible FC is courting a major VC deal as well? If the Avalon thing comes to pass, even the mightly FC might find his back against the wall.
I have no doubt real Wall Street money is looking hard at the opportunities for entry into the ASIC space. It has grown exponentially and shows no signs of slowing. I think the ASIC space will be almost unrecognizable 6 months from now. Things are changing so fast I can barely keep up with my own investments.
This was almost certainly going to happen sooner or later. ASIC development and sales are so red hot that it was only a matter of time before a mega investor saw an opportunity to position itself as the industry leader.
Friedcat has been very quiet lately himself. If this deal was indeed going through I find it unlikely FC did not hear whispers about it. Is it possible FC is courting a major VC deal as well? If the Avalon thing comes to pass, even the mightly FC might find his back against the wall.
I have no doubt real Wall Street money is looking hard at the opportunities for entry into the ASIC space. It has grown exponentially and shows no signs of slowing. I think the ASIC space will be almost unrecognizable 6 months from now. Things are changing so fast I can barely keep up with my own investments.
August 08, 2013, 09:39:30 AM
When you say "imported", are you talking about dilution or are you talking about already owned shares being moved into the exchange ?
he's talking about people that own direct shares and move them into the pass-through on BTCT.co exchange
August 08, 2013, 09:36:59 AM
Just an FYI, roughly 2000 AM shares were imported into BTCT over the past 2 days. My guess is that it is some seller(s) unloading some of that.
This used to happen all the time, but back then we had more buyers around to gobble it up. Now we are competing with all of the "hot" mining IPOs.
If AM does their job, the buyers may come back around when they see that AM shareholders get paid, while every other mining op watches the diff go up with no divs.
This is mostly speculation, and I may be biased, but it's my observation.
This used to happen all the time, but back then we had more buyers around to gobble it up. Now we are competing with all of the "hot" mining IPOs.
If AM does their job, the buyers may come back around when they see that AM shareholders get paid, while every other mining op watches the diff go up with no divs.
This is mostly speculation, and I may be biased, but it's my observation.
When you say "imported", are you talking about dilution or are you talking about already owned shares being moved into the exchange ?
August 08, 2013, 09:34:04 AM
anyone know what FAB AM uses? TSMC? and how will the latest avalon rumors, if true, affect AM going forward?
have they begun development on smaller chips yet?
have they begun development on smaller chips yet?
They use TSMC.
Are you sure? I could not find a source for that.
The only thing I could find was in an old avalon status update, but that sounds like friedcat is not using TSMC.
From: http://www.bitcointrading.com/forum/asic-mining/avalon-asic-development-status-%28batch-1%29/
I apologize if this has been answered; what steps will be taking place in China, and what will be done elsewhere after shipping and customs clearance? Specifically, I would like to know about packaging, assembly, and self-mining.
For the first generation of products, all steps have been taking place and will happen in China. This including chips production, PCB production, slicing & packaging, assembly, and deploying, in different places though. For example, while the production is in where the foundries are, we have more freedom to choose a place with very inexpensive power source to do self-mining.Ok, i cant find anymore that they use TSMC. Maybe im remembering wrong.
August 08, 2013, 09:31:18 AM
Now we are competing with all of the "hot" mining IPOs.
I think you mean "hot potato". How low will Labcoin and/or BtcGarden go? I almost feel sorry for the guys that bought at 4X IPO price...
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