Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It - page 906. (Read 3917531 times)

Not worthless if AM goes to 0.1 BTC. It's all about hindsight.

Right, but if I'm buying puts closer to 3.0 BTC (I've actually been buying the whole way up: 2.2, 2.5, now 2.7 and 3.0) then my 1.8 BTC puts are worthless.

Shouldn't make you sad. Protecting yourself on the way up. You're safe, we're not. That's why you keep buying them.

Heh, no. I own about ten of those, too. They make me a little sad when I open up BTCT  

Is this no longer valid?


 

Damn it, I wish ASICMiner would stabilize for a few days so I didn't have to keep updating my offer to buy puts  

OK, I'm currently offering to buy either of the following two options:

(I am BUYING put options: you write them!)

Strike: 2.7 BTC
Expiration: 90 days
Premium: 0.2 BTC

OR

Strike: 3.0 BTC
Expiration: 90 days
Premium: 0.25 BTC

Cheers,

Vycid

Update:

I will immediately purchase ASICMiner puts expiring September 1st, with a strike of 1.8BTC, and a premium of 0.14BTC.

3 BTC limit.

You should consider cashing out a bit of your investment as you went full retard buying shares. Don't bet the farm on AM. Results from the past are no prediction for the future.

that depends a lot on the dividends.  If they go back to the realm of .03-.04, the share price would go up considerably.  Personally, I think 30% is an appropriate rate for the amount of risk/etc, because there are other options for investing BTC below 30% that may be safer.

At a .02 btc dividend (1.04 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 3.5 btc
At a .03 btc dividend (1.56 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 5.2 btc
At a .04 btc dividend (2.08 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 6.9 btc

I expect stabilization around 5 btc and .03 btc/week for the next few weeks.

I think it'll be at least a few months, when the rest of the ASICs are expected to "catch up," before people trust AM enough for 15% yearly. For now, 4.5-5 is good enough value to hold, and psychological place to hover until it eventually goes to 10 in the long term.

ASICM can probably get away with 15% yielding dividends (which is considered low for BTC investments) because they have a solid history, are absolutely huge in terms of market cap, and have provided stable dividends.

In other words, people are happy to opt for smaller dividend on a much lower risk company.

They cover from the beginning ASICMiner started solo mining, which is from the following block and up to right now. https://blockchain.info/block-index/383941/000000000000010c9335c90f6e1f2d2a9af73ca078d660c98988234309b9dba3

So about the last six weeks.

I get a feeling that any people in the financial industry would laugh their ass off if they read this thread, saying that less than a 25% p.a. return on ones investment is unacceptable. I mean, the Bitcoin mining industry is risky, but is it that risky?

Q: What would be the physical address of the offshore company be to registered?
Friedcat: It will be on an island where financial freedom is more easily to achieve.

I don't think we are in a bubble yet, but we are getting there if prices keep rising unabated

This is a post I made in the speculation thread. I thought it might be useful to put it here as well:

Don't know if anyone has done this before but based on current 3600 coins mined per day, and 400,000 total AM shares.

If AM controls 20% of the mining share: (0.2 x (3600 x 7))/400000 = 0.0126 dividend per share based on mining revenue

Likewise, for 30% = 0.0189

And 40% = 0.0252 (as I understand AM will not go above 40%)

I think AM can safely hold about 20% of the total hashrate at the very least, on average. So as far as mining goes, one can safely accept that about 0.013-0.018 dividend should be easily maintained

So expecting a total dividend of 0.03 in perpetuity will place a great burden on hardware sales. I am not sure that hardware sales can consistently generate 0.017-0.012 per share, allowing us to have a weekly dividend of 0.03 when added to the mining component.

I'm prepared to be surprised of course but IMO average dividends by AM should be about 0.02-0.025, when seen over the long term...this is my estimate: based on mining revenue accounting for two thirds of the dividend and hardware sales accounting for the remaining third.

Based on that, fair valuation (using approx 25-30% as minimum expected annual yield, and dividends between 0.02-0.025 on average, in perpetuity) will be between:

BTC3.46 (very conservative, 0.02 assumed dividend with 30% yield required)

and

BTC5.2 (very bullish, 0.03 assumed dividend with 25% yield required).

Taking the midpoint of the two puts neutral valuation at about BTC4.3/share. Thats pretty much where we are now and I hope that's where we stay.

I'm comfortable with current pricing levels but not anything higher than 4.5.

Soon people may be saying that they should have bought more at 4.0 today.