Topic: ASICs - which should you choose? - page 2. (Read 12980 times)
Many may not want extra features if they use too much power or are redundant after more than one device! (Of course there are a few celebs I'd like to have dinner with)
Working on some difficulty curves along those lines. But after the long weekend... 
I wouldn't worry about power usage if you have one or two Asics, they use as mutch as some lightbulbs XD.
I would absolutely worry about power usage. It will mean the difference between and profitable and non-profitable miner in the future. You may only be looking at the price or the hash rate now, but later, power usage will be the only thing keeping your head above water.
I would also worry. I can't see US$/kWh decreasing, and as D increases low energy consumption will be key. In fact I predict that in a year miners will worry more about electricity costs than anything else. I also predict that within a year all ASIC manufacturers will make efficiency their top priority so that ASICs will have very similar hashes/joule and hashrate/$, and will have differential pricing based mostly on usability features (standalone wifi vs connected to a computer, flashy paint job, dinner with some celeb etc).
What about a different approach to the difficulty prediction: Calculating how much of ASIC hardware is added to the network reach an equilibrium for the time to reach ROI for the ASIC.
My prediction is that the network will find an equilibrium where the time frame to reach ROI for an ASIC device is somewhere comparable to current GPU mining. With the 25 btc block award when ASICs hit the market, it can be argued that the ROI time frame will double from current GPU mining.
If current ROI predictions for a GPU has been about 6 months, a reasonable estimate would be that the network will reach an equilibrium difficulty with ASIC ROI of 1 year. (If ASIC ROI is over 1 year, less people are willing to invest in mining, thus reaching an equilibrium at 1 year) What is the difficulty with the current generation ASIC devices and prices?
If the difficulty will jump to a value where buying an asic would pay itself in 1 year, then it would be about 20x of the current value (assuming 60gh/s, 100w, price 1300 dollars, btc price at current level using bitcoinX.com calculator).
At the current ASIC prices of 50 Mh/dollar the network total of about 500 TH/s would cost about 10 million dollars. This is probably more than the price of the current GPU network.
My prediction is that the network will find an equilibrium where the time frame to reach ROI for an ASIC device is somewhere comparable to current GPU mining. With the 25 btc block award when ASICs hit the market, it can be argued that the ROI time frame will double from current GPU mining.
If current ROI predictions for a GPU has been about 6 months, a reasonable estimate would be that the network will reach an equilibrium difficulty with ASIC ROI of 1 year. (If ASIC ROI is over 1 year, less people are willing to invest in mining, thus reaching an equilibrium at 1 year) What is the difficulty with the current generation ASIC devices and prices?
If the difficulty will jump to a value where buying an asic would pay itself in 1 year, then it would be about 20x of the current value (assuming 60gh/s, 100w, price 1300 dollars, btc price at current level using bitcoinX.com calculator).
At the current ASIC prices of 50 Mh/dollar the network total of about 500 TH/s would cost about 10 million dollars. This is probably more than the price of the current GPU network.
I'm not sure about this. Here's an example: Miners don't switch off as long as it doesn't cost them to mine. If, when all the pre-purchased ASICs come on line D, exchange rate, and electricity costs are all at a level that means the break even point is 2 years instead of one, then as long as they are still mining they still earn and difficulty won't drop. It may even increase as people finding out about bitcoin mining try it for the first time.
Your suggestion is simple, but that simplicity is obscuring many assumptions about how and why people mine. Not all miners are as logical as you.
Working on some difficulty curves along those lines. But after the long weekend...
I wouldn't worry about power usage if you have one or two Asics, they use as mutch as some lightbulbs XD.
I would absolutely worry about power usage. It will mean the difference between and profitable and non-profitable miner in the future. You may only be looking at the price or the hash rate now, but later, power usage will be the only thing keeping your head above water.
I wouldn't worry about power usage if you have one or two Asics, they use as mutch as some lightbulbs XD.
True that 
I wouldn't worry about power usage if you have one or two Asics, they use as mutch as some lightbulbs XD.
True that
Working on some difficulty curves along those lines. But after the long weekend...
I wouldn't worry about power usage if you have one or two Asics, they use as mutch as some lightbulbs XD.
Working on some difficulty curves along those lines. But after the long weekend...
What about a different approach to the difficulty prediction: Calculating how much of ASIC hardware is added to the network reach an equilibrium for the time to reach ROI for the ASIC.
My prediction is that the network will find an equilibrium where the time frame to reach ROI for an ASIC device is somewhere comparable to current GPU mining. With the 25 btc block award when ASICs hit the market, it can be argued that the ROI time frame will double from current GPU mining.
If current ROI predictions for a GPU has been about 6 months, a reasonable estimate would be that the network will reach an equilibrium difficulty with ASIC ROI of 1 year. (If ASIC ROI is over 1 year, less people are willing to invest in mining, thus reaching an equilibrium at 1 year) What is the difficulty with the current generation ASIC devices and prices?
If the difficulty will jump to a value where buying an asic would pay itself in 1 year, then it would be about 20x of the current value (assuming 60gh/s, 100w, price 1300 dollars, btc price at current level using bitcoinX.com calculator).
At the current ASIC prices of 50 Mh/dollar the network total of about 500 TH/s would cost about 10 million dollars. This is probably more than the price of the current GPU network.
My prediction is that the network will find an equilibrium where the time frame to reach ROI for an ASIC device is somewhere comparable to current GPU mining. With the 25 btc block award when ASICs hit the market, it can be argued that the ROI time frame will double from current GPU mining.
If current ROI predictions for a GPU has been about 6 months, a reasonable estimate would be that the network will reach an equilibrium difficulty with ASIC ROI of 1 year. (If ASIC ROI is over 1 year, less people are willing to invest in mining, thus reaching an equilibrium at 1 year) What is the difficulty with the current generation ASIC devices and prices?
If the difficulty will jump to a value where buying an asic would pay itself in 1 year, then it would be about 20x of the current value (assuming 60gh/s, 100w, price 1300 dollars, btc price at current level using bitcoinX.com calculator).
At the current ASIC prices of 50 Mh/dollar the network total of about 500 TH/s would cost about 10 million dollars. This is probably more than the price of the current GPU network.
That's from the BTCFPGA Forum
We are expecting the 27Gh/s units to use between 50-60 watts and the 54Gh/s units to use between 100-120 watts give or take
this is estimated data - and will not be completely correct but it gives you a ballpark and as close as an estimate as our competitor friends have on their units
this is estimated data - and will not be completely correct but it gives you a ballpark and as close as an estimate as our competitor friends have on their units
I was getting the info from this post:
Hot off the presses
I believe that should send that debate to it's final resting place.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=79637.2060;topicseen
I personally use these on my fpga rigs - one of these 1000 watt babies will easily power 8-10 54Gh/s bASICS
I believe that should send that debate to it's final resting place.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=79637.2060;topicseen
Thanks for your insightful thread organofcorti. It leaves me curious, though.. I have some bASIC devices incoming and your estimates are much higher than I was expecting. Is it not safe to say that the 54gh/s units will top at around 200w? Also, what kind of power connector will be required? others have speculated it will run on standard 6-pin pci-e connector, but wouldn't 8-pin be necessary if they really draw this much juice?
Tom has said the 54GH/s unit will use 100-120W, and will take either a 4pin molex, or a DC barrel jack.
The quote was along the lines of "a 1000W PSU will power 8 to 10 of the 54 Ghps bASICs". I used the more conservative estimate of 8/100 = 125W.
We are expecting the 27Gh/s units to use between 50-60 watts and the 54Gh/s units to use between 100-120 watts give or take
this is estimated data - and will not be completely correct but it gives you a ballpark and as close as an estimate as our competitor friends have on their units
this is estimated data - and will not be completely correct but it gives you a ballpark and as close as an estimate as our competitor friends have on their units
Thanks for your insightful thread organofcorti. It leaves me curious, though.. I have some bASIC devices incoming and your estimates are much higher than I was expecting. Is it not safe to say that the 54gh/s units will top at around 200w? Also, what kind of power connector will be required? others have speculated it will run on standard 6-pin pci-e connector, but wouldn't 8-pin be necessary if they really draw this much juice?
Tom has said the 54GH/s unit will use 100-120W, and will take either a 4pin molex, or a DC barrel jack.
The quote was along the lines of "a 1000W PSU will power 8 to 10 of the 54 Ghps bASICs". I used the more conservative estimate of 1000/8 = 125W.
Thanks for your insightful thread organofcorti. It leaves me curious, though.. I have some bASIC devices incoming and your estimates are much higher than I was expecting. Is it not safe to say that the 54gh/s units will top at around 200w? Also, what kind of power connector will be required? others have speculated it will run on standard 6-pin pci-e connector, but wouldn't 8-pin be necessary if they really draw this much juice?
Tom has said the 54GH/s unit will use 100-120W, and will take either a 4pin molex, or a DC barrel jack.
Thanks for your insightful thread organofcorti. It leaves me curious, though.. I have some bASIC devices incoming and your estimates are much higher than I was expecting. Is it not safe to say that the 54gh/s units will top at around 200w? Also, what kind of power connector will be required? others have speculated it will run on standard 6-pin pci-e connector, but wouldn't 8-pin be necessary if they really draw this much juice?
This is what I based my last post on:
It's lower than 200W. Maybe you were looking at earlier posts?
As far as the rest, I don't know. I play with numbers, then get other people to explain to me how to deal with the hardware
Edit: I'd forgotten to link to the lastest post in the OP. Sorry about that.
Thanks for your insightful thread organofcorti. It leaves me curious, though.. I have some bASIC devices incoming and your estimates are much higher than I was expecting. Is it not safe to say that the 54gh/s units will top at around 200w? Also, what kind of power connector will be required? others have speculated it will run on standard 6-pin pci-e connector, but wouldn't 8-pin be necessary if they really draw this much juice?
I want to make that chart 3d... mmm 3D....
I did a 3d version, not as easy to understand as the tile plot and a bit uglier. I can post it though if you want.
I want to make that chart 3d... mmm 3D....
AFAIK it's simple: assume you have an initial amount of $1000. You decide to buy mining equipment which generates 100 BTC before it blows up in your face (we neglect the electricity cost for simplicity). Alternatively you could have bought 100 BTC from your initial $1000 at $10 per BTC. Assume in 1 year BTC is $1000 a piece. Now your mining equipment generated $99000 profit.
Correct? No - because the profit is an outcome of the value appreciation of BTC. Your device just made it barely to break even.
Correct? No - because the profit is an outcome of the value appreciation of BTC. Your device just made it barely to break even.
I follow you - it's about buy and hold vs invest in mining equipment, yes? I'll try to think of a way to show that not involving using a btc denominated chart.
Good effort but putting such a large range on BTC price only hurts your presentation. You should be tackling mining profitability with the mindset of "Hey, let's see how profitable this is given that BTC stays at $11 or thereabouts." There is absolutely no point in even peeking at mining return over ~$10/BTC (A crueler man than I would call it masturbatory). I recommend a range of $11/BTC and down if you insist on having exchange rate as a variable. Otherwise, I'd just stick to a constant $11/BTC. It is much more useful to show a wide range of difficulties and difficulty prediction functions as that is the true unknown variable here.
I'd like to point out that my sexual fantasies rarely involve bitcoin.
That said, there is a very good reason I increased the x-axis to US$40/btc in the chart you refer to, and that is to enable comparisons. If one device at one locale can get you to the break even point at 12 months at starting difficulty = 30 million and an exchange rate of US$10/btc, and the same device will reach break even at 12 months at starting difficulty = 30 million and an exchange rate of US$30/btc, then you know it's time to move to a state where electricity is cheaper. I'm not expecting btc to reach maximum of the x-axis, but if I didn't include up to US$40/btc then some of the chart would have been blank.
With those points in mind, and with the aim of producing an ROI like chart, I made the following:
Quote
Chart 1: (new) In order to read this group of charts, find the intersection of a percentage ROI and number of difficulty periods (eg. % ROI after one year is at ~ 26 difficulty periods). The colour of the tile is an indicator of the exchange rate required to meet this %ROI after the given number of difficulty periods. The faint white line along the middle of each plot indicates the break even point. Click on a chart for enlargement.
More charts and more detail at http://organofcorti.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/93-more-on-asic-choices.html
Good effort but putting such a large range on BTC price only hurts your presentation. You should be tackling mining profitability with the mindset of "Hey, let's see how profitable this is given that BTC stays at $11 or thereabouts." There is absolutely no point in even peeking at mining return over ~$10/BTC (A crueler man than I would call it masturbatory). I recommend a range of $11/BTC and down if you insist on having exchange rate as a variable. Otherwise, I'd just stick to a constant $11/BTC. It is much more useful to show a wide range of difficulties and difficulty prediction functions as that is the true unknown variable here.
Interesting. Thanks for posting.
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