At what price we would be at if Btifinex disaster didn't happen? - page 5.

MatTheCat

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Quote from: 1Referee on September 01, 2016, 04:22:52 AM

Bitfinex wasn't really a dominant exchange as even traders there are looking what is happening at exchanges as OKCoin and Huobi. The other exchanges just follow their path. Only some times you see that exchanges don't want to follow the Chinese exchanges all the way up. Then there is a gap of $20-$30 between China and the west.

The whole attractiveness of Bitcoin to Chinese investors is escape from CNY and exposure to USD. Bitfinex was without a doubt the biggest USD market in the world. Whilst the Chinese markets tend to lead, how much of that volume is actually for real?

Bitcoin is dominated by the Chinese for sure, but a big part of it's attractiveness is it's USD convertability. I wonder how many Chinese Bitcoin Cowboys were using Bitfinex as a kind of USD bank account, only to wake up one morning with a 36% haircut?

Bitfinex was a terrible event for Bitcoin and the only logical outcome of it is much less capital flow in Bitcoin than there would otherwise be.

MatTheCat

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Quote from: oblivi on August 26, 2016, 01:25:49 PM

I often think about this nowadays. We were on a spectacular uptrend. Core team was about to launch 0.13 and the halving happened, we were on the good track, but Bitfinex happened, ruining the good uptrend with the stupid ass dump. Fortunately we recovered quick, but the uptrend is not as strong and will take some more time now to go 1000+ again.

Bitfinex isn't just bad for Bitcoin, but bad for crypto in general. There must be 10's of thousands of people who did have significant capital in Bitcoin, who now either have nothing in Bitcoin or crypto, or mere peanuts in the game.

Stagnant price action I believe, is a symptom of the market apathy at the moment, but the miners will keep on mining, and holders of Bitcoin will want to cash out (if the value of thier investments don't seem likely to rise).

I say at the very least, Bitcoin has to retest the upper $400s and resolve that test bullishly, before it can move on.......gonna be a painful few months imo........(not for me though, I have had all the Bitcoin pain that I am ever gonna take, from Kraken, and then again from Bitfinex).

1Referee

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Quote from: doublemore on September 01, 2016, 04:05:16 AM

Quote from: oblivi on August 26, 2016, 01:25:49 PM

I often think about this nowadays. We were on a spectacular uptrend. Core team was about to launch 0.13 and the halving happened, we were on the good track, but Bitfinex happened, ruining the good uptrend with the stupid ass dump. Fortunately we recovered quick, but the uptrend is not as strong and will take some more time now to go 1000+ again.

The good news is that we now have several exchanges rather than 1 dominant 1. That makes us stronger for any future hacks. i think we would have dropped to $550 like we have done and then the uptrend continue. Finex just made us drop further.

Bitfinex wasn't really a dominant exchange as even traders there are looking what is happening at exchanges as OKCoin and Huobi. The other exchanges just follow their path. Only some times you see that exchanges don't want to follow the Chinese exchanges all the way up. Then there is a gap of $20-$30 between China and the west.

doublemore

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Quote from: oblivi on August 26, 2016, 01:25:49 PM

I often think about this nowadays. We were on a spectacular uptrend. Core team was about to launch 0.13 and the halving happened, we were on the good track, but Bitfinex happened, ruining the good uptrend with the stupid ass dump. Fortunately we recovered quick, but the uptrend is not as strong and will take some more time now to go 1000+ again.

The good news is that we now have several exchanges rather than 1 dominant 1. That makes us stronger for any future hacks. i think we would have dropped to $550 like we have done and then the uptrend continue. Finex just made us drop further.

Rostadom

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Quote from: uki on August 29, 2016, 02:36:55 AM

I was actually predicting $500-600range as the stable range for 2016, before the year even started. I don't see that there are any new factors at the moment to correct this prediction. We may have a short-term jump to higher 600-700 , but for now the floor lies in the area with 5 handle.

I think the bottom of the trading ranging in the next few months will be $550. It might rise to $800 by year end.

Schuyler

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Quote from: nizamcc on August 30, 2016, 02:58:24 PM

If that Bitfinex hack wouldn't have taken place, we would have been possibly between $800 and $900, but that hack caused such an unexpected damage to the price and markets that no one ever thought. The worst scenario of 2016 I think, and hope we won't see such things any further.

I doubt if that would have been the case. The price was steadily going down even before the bitfinex hacking. If anything, that incident just made the plummet faster, hence a speedier recovery. Although we are still at the mid $500 levels, I think we would just be at around $620 whether that incident with bitfinex happened or not.

talks_cheep

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Greedy f*ckers are back trading on bitfinex again. The same has happened with MtGox before, these greedy f*ckers got suckered in, in spite of warning from the rational few like me, and they got slaughtered when MtGox went belly up, but the point is these greedy f*ckers were trading on MtGox even though there were clear signs that it was going to implode. The same is happening with bitfinex. They got hacked, from inside, not externally like they claim. They had been hacked before, from inside again. They will be hacked again. Again and again, until they implode. Mark my words and be warned.

nizamcc

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If that Bitfinex hack wouldn't have taken place, we would have been possibly between $800 and $900, but that hack caused such an unexpected damage to the price and markets that no one ever thought. The worst scenario of 2016 I think, and hope we won't see such things any further.

crairezx20

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Quote from: uki on August 29, 2016, 02:36:55 AM

I was actually predicting $500-600range as the stable range for 2016, before the year even started. I don't see that there are any new factors at the moment to correct this prediction. We may have a short-term jump to higher 600-700 , but for now the floor lies in the area with 5 handle.

I think this november or december the price of bitcoin will increase again back to 600 value or 700 value if we are lucky that the price will increase at 600 before november expect that the price will hit at 700 value until 900 value..

BillyBobZorton

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Quote from: NorrisK on August 27, 2016, 06:47:51 AM

If you looked at the RSI charts before the hack, it was quite clear that a correction was bound to happen. The hack probably increased the effect, making the drop much much steeper and caused overselling because people thought the hack was the reason for the decline.

I think without the hack we would've recovered faster and would be around 600-620 now. It will take a bit, but it sure looks like the bottom has been found again. Gold and silver prices rising may cause some people to invest there rather than in bitcoin though. That storm needs to be finished first before the price starts lifting again.

Who really knows if a correction was about to happen.. if you look at the charts during the 2013 1.2k dollars peak, you can see that it looks like it should correct, but it kept on going up. You never really know.

Whats sure is, without bitfinex we would be higher.

reb0rn21

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It real shame one more exchange eat the dust, make stupid mistake and lose some 30% of their customers funds
MtGox failure had a lot worse effect which plagued bitcoin price for a year for sure
My estimate is that ppl trying to short now in BTC are less and less dominant, more and more BTC is locked at project and real world use, demand is still huge, even if they try to dump, price is recovering day by day, and they see it goes nowhere
I agree due all the negative effect bitfinex made it will be slow to break 600-700 buy I am optimistic for the winter for sure

uki

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I was actually predicting $500-600range as the stable range for 2016, before the year even started. I don't see that there are any new factors at the moment to correct this prediction. We may have a short-term jump to higher 600-700 , but for now the floor lies in the area with 5 handle.

Snorek

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Quote from: crairezx20 on August 26, 2016, 01:31:11 PM

I think 700 or 800 value this is what i think the easy goal to reach when the price is 600 level.
But i think the price will increase again back but it takes a long time again.. my estimate november or december we will see that the price will hit at 600 value again or more..

In all likelihood we would see something like this. The most probably scenario is price range between $700 and $800.
Because of that fail we have to start climbing from the back position once again. But don't worry guys, slowly but surely we are going up again.

Winter is time when historically bitcoin price was the highest.

uki

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Quote from: NorrisK on August 27, 2016, 06:47:51 AM

If you looked at the RSI charts before the hack, it was quite clear that a correction was bound to happen. The hack probably increased the effect, making the drop much much steeper and caused overselling because people thought the hack was the reason for the decline.

I think without the hack we would've recovered faster and would be around 600-620 now. It will take a bit, but it sure looks like the bottom has been found again. Gold and silver prices rising may cause some people to invest there rather than in bitcoin though. That storm needs to be finished first before the price starts lifting again.

That is exactly my point. The correction was due and it was just a matter of time when it will happen. Hack was just a catalyst to start the correction process, however it would have happened anyway, not on this news than on something else. The real question is not where we would have been without it, but how long it will take to recover. And looking at the price action it looks pretty good so far, the bottom may be in.

richardsNY

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Quote from: Edwardard on August 26, 2016, 10:42:58 PM

Quote from: richardsNY on August 26, 2016, 07:00:36 PM

To be honest, even without the hack of Bitfinex we would have seen the price go down with the current selling pressure. It wouldn't go as low as it has gone due to the hack, but maybe the lowest point would be slightly below the $600 level. In that aspect I think the current price is not that far away from what is reasonable.

no i dont think so. it is just the hack to be blamed. you maybe right that the price could have also gone down due to the selling pressure but i dont believe that selling pressure could make the price go as down as of now. remember the 660$ days ? i hope it comes back again very soon.

The hack was just part of it, not the main reason. Don't forget that this selling pressure hangs above the market far before the block halving took place. Yes, I do remember the price being at the $660 level, but at this point there is nothing that points at the price going towards that price again this year.

bit1

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Quote from: Kprawn on August 27, 2016, 12:32:53 PM

I am not into the conspiracy theory scene, but have you notice with every spike in the price.. something bad happens. Is this a orchestrated effort to hamper Bincoin's growth or to delay it's progress?

Has anyone looked into the history of these so-called hacks and the rapid rise in the price? Someone should put these events on a graph in relation to the price movement, and see what we get. I think

there is more behind these hacks than what we make it out to be. Roll Eyes

Interesting but this type of iterations are common to almost all, facts and events happen all the time, no matter time and place, setbacks are the result of coordinated actions sometimes, but we can not know the nature behind them.

Kprawn

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I am not into the conspiracy theory scene, but have you notice with every spike in the price.. something bad happens. Is this a orchestrated effort to hamper Bincoin's growth or to delay it's progress?

Has anyone looked into the history of these so-called hacks and the rapid rise in the price? Someone should put these events on a graph in relation to the price movement, and see what we get. I think

there is more behind these hacks than what we make it out to be. Roll Eyes

Red-Apple

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Quote from: oblivi on August 26, 2016, 01:25:49 PM

I often think about this nowadays. We were on a spectacular uptrend. Core team was about to launch 0.13 and the halving happened, we were on the good track, but Bitfinex happened, ruining the good uptrend with the stupid ass dump. Fortunately we recovered quick, but the uptrend is not as strong and will take some more time now to go 1000+ again.

very interesting question and also interesting replies before me.

many have been saying (still do say it) that bitcoin should be above $800-$1000 soon and they were expecting it even before the dump happened but i think the market is not yet ready. the price is staying at this level and not going up as it was before the dump.
but also it is not going down either.

so i guess the price is good at this level and will stay here for a longer period of time.

NorrisK

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If you looked at the RSI charts before the hack, it was quite clear that a correction was bound to happen. The hack probably increased the effect, making the drop much much steeper and caused overselling because people thought the hack was the reason for the decline.

I think without the hack we would've recovered faster and would be around 600-620 now. It will take a bit, but it sure looks like the bottom has been found again. Gold and silver prices rising may cause some people to invest there rather than in bitcoin though. That storm needs to be finished first before the price starts lifting again.

Nahl

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i think Bitfinex incident only one of the factor why the price didn't happened to the moon but in my opinion if there is no Bintfinex incident that doesn't guarantee the price will pass through $700 above again and perhaps the cause bitcoin prices stuck because after halving date people has decide to sell they bitcoin because they had losing their patience and afraid the price will dropped

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