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Topic: At what price will you bitcoin holders sell if we have a major price spike? - page 2. (Read 703 times)

hero member
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Well I think you are right about the number 100k. That number is such a high number and I think people will start to sell and take profits when it does go that high.  And now I do think it there is a good chance it does see that price this year.

Most holders wouldn't even wait that long in my opinion, and selling will start immediately as Bitcoin hits $90k because people who have bought Bitcoin when it was priced below $30k will surely take some profit when they see they are getting more than 2x of their initial investment which isn't a bad deal.

That being said, on a second thought, I think profit taking processes have already started because Bitcoin is already pretty high and some people might be taking profit even now thinking that the market might take a plunge from here and they will buy again after taking profit right now. Such people will miss out if the market doesn't go down significantly, but if it does, they will be on the brighter side for sure.
legendary
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'The right to privacy matters'
I’ve been saying for about 6 years now that $200K is my price. If we hit that level it will be difficult for me to continue being a holder because I will be able to do pretty much everything I’ve ever dreamed of, with the exception of owning the Sacramento Kings, but that pipe dream may be forever out of reach.
What if Bitcoin manages to hit a few million dollars as a price in the next few years? Will you then be able to have your pipe dream come true?  Grin

Well, for me, Bitcoin reaching $100k is a great point to start taking profit from because we know Bitcoin moves in a cycle, so the decline can start any time after that in case the hype starts fading away or people start taking profit in large quantities because those who bought very early wouldn't wait for more if they see Bitcoin reaching $100k.

However, the decision will vary for each holder, just like how you have been waiting for a certain price for 6 years, someone might have their goals fulfilled in a few months because they have a lower target.

I do not see a million anytime soon. I won't be selling much of mine while we are under 100k.

Under 10%.  If we go over 100% I would sell 10% more.

hero member
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Well I think you are right about the number 100k. That number is such a high number and I think people will start to sell and take profits when it does go that high.  And now I do think it there is a good chance it does see that price this year.
No one holds the future price of bitcoin but if bitcoin will continue to move positively, then reaching $100k prior to halving or post halving is very possible. But selling with that current price, I guess that’s left for you to decide. However, if I were in your position, I would not doubt selling a small portion of bitcoin. After all, we’re here to enjoy some profits and not just hodling all the time. And continue to hold the rest of your coins for future profits, because for sure bull run will certainly make it happen.
hero member
Activity: 2408
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I’ve been saying for about 6 years now that $200K is my price. If we hit that level it will be difficult for me to continue being a holder because I will be able to do pretty much everything I’ve ever dreamed of, with the exception of owning the Sacramento Kings, but that pipe dream may be forever out of reach.
What if Bitcoin manages to hit a few million dollars as a price in the next few years? Will you then be able to have your pipe dream come true?  Grin

Well, for me, Bitcoin reaching $100k is a great point to start taking profit from because we know Bitcoin moves in a cycle, so the decline can start any time after that in case the hype starts fading away or people start taking profit in large quantities because those who bought very early wouldn't wait for more if they see Bitcoin reaching $100k.

However, the decision will vary for each holder, just like how you have been waiting for a certain price for 6 years, someone might have their goals fulfilled in a few months because they have a lower target.
legendary
Activity: 3906
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Decentralization Maximalist
I believe those are very conservative ATH projections. Cool
In 2021 (like many) I was too bullish, so I'm cautious this time Wink For me this is however a price range where I could be fine selling at least a part. I never sold everything I had (only in the case of some altcoins, as we all know these fall usually 90% in the bear market or more).

Because of the ETF, Bitcoin's potential ATH value has probably increased ten-fold.
Ten-fold is too much. This is a too US-centric perspective. There were already several exchange-traded products and even some ETFs (several ETFs in Canada, Jacobi ETF in Guernsey, ETPs in Germany and Switzerland, another ETF in Brazil) which allowed exposure to Bitcoin. Some are quite new though so most were not available in the last bull run (pre-2021).

But there's one thing you may be right:

In my personal opinion 2025 will see the market value/volume for Gold ETFs go down, and Bitcoin ETFs to surge.
I definitely expect, if this bull run continues, that soon we will see a resurge of the gold vs. Bitcoin debate, fueled by exactly what you mentioned: the competition between Gold and Bitcoin ETFs. And this time it could be serious, i.e. that this time Bitcoin could really capture a substantial part of the money which goes into gold normally.

The reason why I described this as a "black swan" (for this cycle) is that probably our bull market is already advanced and this will mean that the debate will only begin when the next bull market begins (probably 2026). If no FTX or Terra/Luna type event occurs, however, the next bear market could be substantially less deep: let's say 50% instead of 70%+. This could help for this debate. Once we reach this milestone, Bitcoin will be more stable than many assets: because 50% is a price retreat which is very common in stocks and possible for gold and many other assets, even in commodities with "real-world usage" like oil or soybeans.

I'm convinced that eventually there will be at least an attempt of a "Bitcoin/Gold flippening". Smiley But it would surprise me if it was in this cycle already.
copper member
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I have been thinking about when to start selling my 2 bitcoins I purchased for $21,000 each average price during 2022 lows.

I keep hearing things like we could spike to 200K really quickly and stuff like that, maybe in just weeks.

My question is when will you guys start to sell if we have a major spike?

I used to think I wanted to sell at 100K, but this is rising so fast I have been thinking more like 150K to start selling.

How will you sell, slowly into a spike or wait for a set price and just dump.



If you want profit, then only sell at 100k, else don’t wait for 150k. If you greed for more then you might lose the 100k price mark also. Moreover if you don’t want profits now and good with the investment, then keep the Bitcoins untouched. Bitcoins are way more valuable than 100k usd. Sell these coins only if you need funds, else the investment can really go and turn into big.
hero member
Activity: 2870
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Well I think you are right about the number 100k. That number is such a high number and I think people will start to sell and take profits when it does go that high.  And now I do think it there is a good chance it does see that price this year.
At some point, investors will have to sell in my opinion, and it's obvious to get the profit. I mean if you have been holding or accumulating like in 2022 or at least during the FTX collapse, that is a huge gains already if we hit $100k. So maybe the plan is to sell just in parts. If it hit $100k then sell some, and so $120k or if we hit $150k. At least that could be a good strategy in my opinion, staggered sets and at least you could have taken profits every time the price reaches new heights. But not today though, it's just $70k and not going to make that great ROI in my opinion. Next year should really be the goal for everyone to sell.
legendary
Activity: 2898
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In my personal opinion 2025 will see the market value/volume for Gold ETFs go down, and Bitcoin ETFs to surge.

you have personal opinions?? since when..?

seems you just take other people opinion.. im still waiting for you to for once have a personal opinion of your own you didnt take from someone else


 Roll Eyes

Everyone has an opinion, frankandbeans. You may criticise it, or me, but at least I didn't try to scam someone to have a debate with me just to validate an opinion. It's in your trust-rating.

Please confirm that that's not actually true.

If China wants to lead the "New World Order", it needs to have a very large Gold Reserve. Because if they don't, Russia will do it.


OK, but that doesn't change the FACT that China and Russia have been building a Gold hoard. Whether it's for their preparation for the fight for their "New World Order", probably debatable. But it's probably also good to check the Gold/commodities purchases of the other countries in the "BRICS Commonwealth".


funny how you listened to my points and are now saying gold has reached its day and bitcoin is king as the upward trajectory for 2025

the reason is simple

gold mining of 2021-22 seen the cost of mining rise due to inflation of diesel cost of mining gold
this meant the speculative market post-mining seen gold ATH in 2023
however diesel costs dropped by 35% last year back to near normal levels so indicators are gold can see miners mining more often again cheaper,  which will correct the gold price down in 2024-25

however with bitcoin adding demand(etf) and reward halving next month. the cost of mining and the demand for BTC is on a 2024-2025 rise
in short btc up gold down

and so people are selling gold etf and buying btc etf



I stole from you? Why would I do that franknbeans?

Did you steal your opinion from this? Because I could literally do a simple search with the right keywords, and this link would be in the first page.

Quote

Gold ETFs bleed $2.4B so far this year as Bitcoin ETFs hit record volumes
02/15/2024 07:40:22 GMT

Gold-tracking exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have lost billions in outflows this year in stark contrast to ETFs tracking the spot price of Bitcoin

https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/gold-etfs-bleed-24b-so-far-this-year-as-bitcoin-etfs-hit-record-volumes-202402150740

full member
Activity: 364
Merit: 158
OP, study Bitcoin Bull-Bear cycles and its relationship with the increase/decrease of the total M2 global money supply. Every time M2 global money supply increases, Bitcoin price surges. But if it decreases, Bitcoin's price crashes, BUT it never goes down under its previous ATH by multiples. Plus the last bear cycle was the first time it went under its ATH which may not happen again.

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At what price will you bitcoin holders sell if we have a major price spike?


The answer is obvious. It's NEVER?
You can't say never, buddy. Or it seems you are keeping your bitcoin holdings for your heirs. If you are not selling now, one day it may not be you who sells it off; it may be your heir who will take after your holdings. I know you have taught them about bitcoin and preached the good tidings to them, making them believers. There is just no way you won't sell your bitcoin. So I'd prefer if you say SOMEDAY. No one knows how long but someday you will sell and take that massive profit.  Wink
sr. member
Activity: 266
Merit: 205
I have been thinking about when to start selling my 2 bitcoins I purchased for $21,000 each average price during 2022 lows.

I keep hearing things like we could spike to 200K really quickly and stuff like that, maybe in just weeks.

My question is when will you guys start to sell if we have a major spike?

I used to think I wanted to sell at 100K, but this is rising so fast I have been thinking more like 150K to start selling.

How will you sell, slowly into a spike or wait for a set price and just dump.



Actually as an investor, you need to have an investment goal, like how much you are expecting from this or that investment, how much loss you are will to take, because being a Bitcoin investor, precisely in the crypto space, the level of greed can be very destructive to our portfolio, because you might say from the beginning that, you will sell and take profit when the price reach 100k, but when the price got closer and closer, you will feels like it is too small that you want more, and you will fail to seize the opportunity then, and most times the the price will not got to your second price target, and it will reverse to a lower price, which you will be now forced to sell to a much more lower price because the price is declining very fast at that stage.
So I would suggest, it's best you sell and take profit when the price reach your first target, instead of allowing greed to make you wait further.
member
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I’ve been saying for about 6 years now that $200K is my price. If we hit that level it will be difficult for me to continue being a holder because I will be able to do pretty much everything I’ve ever dreamed of, with the exception of owning the Sacramento Kings, but that pipe dream may be forever out of reach.

This kinds of dream I cherish though it could be personal but I like join in this dream, may this kind grace to hold and be patient enough engolf me, this dream will come through at most in the next two years.

2026 is the actualizing of this dream my faith is there who want to join should.
legendary
Activity: 3122
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Well I think you are right about the number 100k. That number is such a high number and I think people will start to sell and take profits when it does go that high.  And now I do think it there is a good chance it does see that price this year.
legendary
Activity: 4424
Merit: 4794
In my personal opinion 2025 will see the market value/volume for Gold ETFs go down, and Bitcoin ETFs to surge.

you have personal opinions?? since when..?

seems you just take other people opinion.. im still waiting for you to for once have a personal opinion of your own you didnt take from someone else

an opinion you stole from somewhere days ago was that gold was king due to YOUR ill informed thoughts that china was buying gold exponentially
Please confirm that that's not actually true.

If China wants to lead the "New World Order", it needs to have a very large Gold Reserve. Because if they don't, Russia will do it.

OK, but that doesn't change the FACT that China and Russia have been building a Gold hoard. Whether it's for their preparation for the fight for their "New World Order", probably debatable. But it's probably also good to check the Gold/commodities purchases of the other countries in the "BRICS Commonwealth".

funny how you listened to my points and are now saying gold has reached its day and bitcoin is king as the upward trajectory for 2025

the reason is simple

gold mining of 2021-22 seen the cost of mining rise due to inflation of diesel cost of mining gold
this meant the speculative market post-mining seen gold ATH in 2023
however diesel costs dropped by 35% last year back to near normal levels so indicators are gold can see miners mining more often again cheaper,  which will correct the gold price down in 2024-25

however with bitcoin adding demand(etf) and reward halving next month. the cost of mining and the demand for BTC is on a 2024-2025 rise
in short btc up gold down

and so people are selling gold etf and buying btc etf




My impression is that the peak will occur some time before November 2025. Perhaps due to expectations based on previous cycles, we are already in a more advanced stage of the bull market in early-to-mid 2024, so I personally expect the peak in the first half of 2025. This would roughly mean that if we go for the formula, the peak could be between 125000 and 135000 USD.

That's approximately the price range where I would be comfortable selling in this cycle. There are however some indications that it could be higher, because 2020/21 was a particularly bad year for the world's economy due to Covid. If the recovery continues and interest rates continue to go down, then I expect more than 135000.

based on the cost of mining when looking at the highest electrical prices of the planet as a ceiling of where traders come to the belief that once hitting the ceiling on the market, its cheaper for all countries to mine coin to then sell vs market buy to hoard..
shows that $140k is a rational number.. for todays numbers projected forward by a year

however ETF are pushing bitcoin markets outside of normal economics.. (outside the fundamentals of underlying value-premium window which is based on mining costs of the planet)

we have seen that although ethereum changed from PoW to PoS meaning it lost its fundamentals of underlying value which should have taken ETH down in price by 20x, it however didnt drop due to its fundamentals and instead rose higher due to its shadow puppet trading against bitcoin rises..

with bitcoin ETF's we could see bitcoin surge above $140k if the persistence of bitcoin ETF keep pushing demand on the bitcoin spot in 2025, or if the mining costs of 2025 surge once again..
but for now a $140k is a reasonable rationale target for todays numbers projected onto 2025
legendary
Activity: 2898
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My impression is that the peak will occur some time before November 2025. Perhaps due to expectations based on previous cycles, we are already in a more advanced stage of the bull market in early-to-mid 2024, so I personally expect the peak in the first half of 2025. This would roughly mean that if we go for the formula, the peak could be between 125000 and 135000 USD.

That's approximately the price range where I would be comfortable selling in this cycle. There are however some indications that it could be higher, because 2020/21 was a particularly bad year for the world's economy due to Covid. If the recovery continues and interest rates continue to go down, then I expect more than 135000.


I believe those are very conservative ATH projections. Cool

Because of the ETF, Bitcoin's potential ATH value has probably increased ten-fold. Asset managers around the world that wanted some exposure in Bitcoin can currently access it through the ETF. Plus if you're an asset manager with billions under management, would you continue holding a less profitable Gold ETF? Or will you sell some of that to purchase a more profitable investment?

In my personal opinion 2025 will see the market value/volume for Gold ETFs go down, and Bitcoin ETFs to surge.

Quote

Potential other positive "black swans" could rise the peak even higher:

- China allows crypto again


Plus China is in Quantitative Easing/has their money printer on. Cool

Quote

- The BTC vs gold debate becomes more favourable for BTC and BTC is seen as a real competitor, e.g. first central banks buying BTC


Russia? Cool

Quote

I'm not really expecting these two events soon, so these would count as black swans for me if they occur before mid-2025. But I'm expecting them for the next 2 cycles.


👍
sr. member
Activity: 98
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Why sell at all?

It's smarter to keep your profits in Bitcoin.



All I see is FOMO, you would see so many persons acting as tho they can really hold and now after making profits they want to sell, just to start the process of buying again.

I think by no people have realise that they should not be selling entire Bitcoin rather the should only sol when they are in immediate need of fund because we have already witnessed how profitable Bitcoin would be hence I would be selling it only it's that's the last resort and since it has already reached $73k I would be selling it for atleast $100k if I had to do.

I don't even advice selling at all, bitcoin is an asset and not just some profit maker and right now you can see the pace the big companies are using to buy bitcoin and you well know they are for the hold and also would live to influence price, we retail investors should stop out selling g habits now more than ever, and no one knows If this cycle would happen like the rest, the way I see it we might well start having bull and bear occasional and the days of long bear or very long bull would soon be over, I think it would be more like a consolidation movement where price would drop like 30% and Jack back again, but who knows I might also be wrong.
legendary
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Decentralization Maximalist
Well if you want some kind of "rational" response we could build a theory for the next price peak, based on the following statement:

Volatility is declining, but the ups and downs follow a roughly similar pattern than in the previous cycles.

We would then have to find a formula to describe the volatility decline. One very simple measure is to base the decline comparing the difference between 4-year all time highs, in comparison to the previous one. As we had only a few 4-year highs I'll include the 2011 high of 32$.

Then we'd have:

- 2011 -> 2013: 32 to 1200 => ~3650% in 2 years => 510% per year
- 2013 -> 2017: 1200 to 20000 => ~1550% in 4 years => 101% per year
- 2017 -> 2021: 20000 to 70000 => ~250% in 4 years => 36% per year

This already shows us that while volatility is definitely declining, if there is a pattern, it is quite wonky.

One idea is to try to find a trend for the decline of the average yearly growth rates between ATHs. We see that the decline between the 2011-13 growth rate of 510% and the 2013-17 rate of 101% is approximately minus 80%, but between 2013-17 and 2017-21 the decline is is only minus 64%. So we could continue this series and now assume a decline of 48% (80 - 64 = 16, 64 - 16 = 48) between the 2017-21 and the 2021-25 growth rate.

This could give us a growth rate for the "potential peak ATH" this cycle of 19% per year approximately.

As we don't know when the peak will occur, we can simply define some simple points each year based on the 2021 high and apply the +19% formula:

- November 2021: 70000
- November 2022: 83300 (70000 + 19%)
- November 2023: 99127 (83300 + 19%)
- November 2024: 117961 (99127 + 19%)
- November 2025: 140373 (117961 + 19%)

My impression is that the peak will occur some time before November 2025. Perhaps due to expectations based on previous cycles, we are already in a more advanced stage of the bull market in early-to-mid 2024, so I personally expect the peak in the first half of 2025. This would roughly mean that if we go for the formula, the peak could be between 125000 and 135000 USD.

That's approximately the price range where I would be comfortable selling in this cycle. There are however some indications that it could be higher, because 2020/21 was a particularly bad year for the world's economy due to Covid. If the recovery continues and interest rates continue to go down, then I expect more than 135000.

Potential other positive "black swans" could rise the peak even higher:

- China allows crypto again
- The BTC vs gold debate becomes more favourable for BTC and BTC is seen as a real competitor, e.g. first central banks buying BTC

I'm not really expecting these two events soon, so these would count as black swans for me if they occur before mid-2025. But I'm expecting them for the next 2 cycles.
hero member
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I have been thinking about when to start selling my 2 bitcoins I purchased for $21,000 each average price during 2022 lows.
Selling half of it is not a bad idea, we just consider this securing our profit. If it fall, we never regret from missing the opportunity.
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I keep hearing things like we could spike to 200K really quickly and stuff like that, maybe in just weeks.
Unrealistic...Bitcoin will never go that fast and reach that high instantly. I can't imagine it will happen in two weeks, not even a year. Maybe, it happens in the future but not this coming ATH. Stop believing rumors, $200k is too high.
Quote
My question is when will you guys start to sell if we have a major spike?

I used to think I wanted to sell at 100K, but this is rising so fast I have been thinking more like 150K to start selling.

How will you sell, slowly into a spike or wait for a set price and just dump.


Just think about this - hold as long as you can but don't bother to decide to sell if you already make a profit. If the purpose of buying Bitcoin is to just hold, then hold. But if our goal is to make money, then why not sell them? 
full member
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Don't sell them all instead 50% to be selling and the other 50% will remain holding unless the price reached 100k ten consider releasing them all.

Like my plan to sell half of my holding if we will reach 80k before halving and wil try looking for a chance to buy again once the bear followed , but if not and the price will continue increasing then at least I have my holding.
legendary
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It kinda means I'm not selling this cycle almost for sure, because my target is $300,000. You're very lucky you have 2 Bitcoins... I'm settling for a total value of around 150k dollars, as it's comfortable for me in my local area to buy a house and the land, very very small, but mine to own.
We all turn into greedy when we are already seeing some price spike happening in the market. That’s why first and foremost, it’s still best to set your target selling price first where you are comfortable of selling and stick to it no matter what will happen to bitcoin. Otherwise, you’ll end up being confused when to sell most especially when the market is highly optimistic until you realize you have done nothing but keep on waiting for another price rise, until you realize you have missed an opportunity to sell at a profitable price due to greed.

Yeah, I totally understand it too. I can say now my target is #300k because that is my price now and I would not hesitate to sell everything and semi-retire (I can't afford to retire but this would pay all my debts to zero and get rid of need to pay rent).

But once price reaches $300k for real, I don't know if I can get greedy. Depends when I guess. If it's next year, I might get tempted to wait one more cycle Smiley
legendary
Activity: 2898
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I’ve been saying for about 6 years now that $200K is my price. If we hit that level it will be difficult for me to continue being a holder because I will be able to do pretty much everything I’ve ever dreamed of, with the exception of owning the Sacramento Kings, but that pipe dream may be forever out of reach.


To purchase shares of the Sacramento Kings, it's probably better to wait for $2,000,000 no? Which Bitcoin surging to $200,000 during a cycle, could add to the probability that Bitcoin could surge to seven digits?

Am I merely being a Moon Boy? I believe not ser. After BlackRock entered Bitcoin Land, followed by the Cabal of some of the largest asset managers around the globe, the kind of investors that will buy those Bitcoin ETFs might not care if the price of Bitcoin is $70,000, $200,000, or $1,000,000. They will buy those Bitcoin ETFs because they need it for their portfolios.

HODL on longer.
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