Topic: At what price will you bitcoin holders sell if we have a major price spike? - page 2. (Read 691 times)

You can't say never, buddy. Or it seems you are keeping your bitcoin holdings for your heirs. If you are not selling now, one day it may not be you who sells it off; it may be your heir who will take after your holdings. I know you have taught them about bitcoin and preached the good tidings to them, making them believers. There is just no way you won't sell your bitcoin. So I'd prefer if you say SOMEDAY. No one knows how long but someday you will sell and take that massive profit. 

Actually as an investor, you need to have an investment goal, like how much you are expecting from this or that investment, how much loss you are will to take, because being a Bitcoin investor, precisely in the crypto space, the level of greed can be very destructive to our portfolio, because you might say from the beginning that, you will sell and take profit when the price reach 100k, but when the price got closer and closer, you will feels like it is too small that you want more, and you will fail to seize the opportunity then, and most times the the price will not got to your second price target, and it will reverse to a lower price, which you will be now forced to sell to a much more lower price because the price is declining very fast at that stage.
So I would suggest, it's best you sell and take profit when the price reach your first target, instead of allowing greed to make you wait further.

This kinds of dream I cherish though it could be personal but I like join in this dream, may this kind grace to hold and be patient enough engolf me, this dream will come through at most in the next two years.

2026 is the actualizing of this dream my faith is there who want to join should.

Well I think you are right about the number 100k. That number is such a high number and I think people will start to sell and take profits when it does go that high.  And now I do think it there is a good chance it does see that price this year.

you have personal opinions?? since when..?

seems you just take other people opinion.. im still waiting for you to for once have a personal opinion of your own you didnt take from someone else

an opinion you stole from somewhere days ago was that gold was king due to YOUR ill informed thoughts that china was buying gold exponentially


funny how you listened to my points and are now saying gold has reached its day and bitcoin is king as the upward trajectory for 2025

---

based on the cost of mining when looking at the highest electrical prices of the planet as a ceiling of where traders come to the belief that once hitting the ceiling on the market, its cheaper for all countries to mine coin to then sell vs market buy to hoard..
shows that $140k is a rational number.. for todays numbers projected forward by a year

however ETF are pushing bitcoin markets outside of normal economics.. (outside the fundamentals of underlying value-premium window which is based on mining costs of the planet)

we have seen that although ethereum changed from PoW to PoS meaning it lost its fundamentals of underlying value which should have taken ETH down in price by 20x, it however didnt drop due to its fundamentals and instead rose higher due to its shadow puppet trading against bitcoin rises..

with bitcoin ETF's we could see bitcoin surge above $140k if the persistence of bitcoin ETF keep pushing demand on the bitcoin spot in 2025, or if the mining costs of 2025 surge once again..
but for now a $140k is a reasonable rationale target for todays numbers projected onto 2025

I believe those are very conservative ATH projections.

Because of the ETF, Bitcoin's potential ATH value has probably increased ten-fold. Asset managers around the world that wanted some exposure in Bitcoin can currently access it through the ETF. Plus if you're an asset manager with billions under management, would you continue holding a less profitable Gold ETF? Or will you sell some of that to purchase a more profitable investment?

In my personal opinion 2025 will see the market value/volume for Gold ETFs go down, and Bitcoin ETFs to surge.


Plus China is in Quantitative Easing/has their money printer on.


Russia?


👍

All I see is FOMO, you would see so many persons acting as tho they can really hold and now after making profits they want to sell, just to start the process of buying again.


I don't even advice selling at all, bitcoin is an asset and not just some profit maker and right now you can see the pace the big companies are using to buy bitcoin and you well know they are for the hold and also would live to influence price, we retail investors should stop out selling g habits now more than ever, and no one knows If this cycle would happen like the rest, the way I see it we might well start having bull and bear occasional and the days of long bear or very long bull would soon be over, I think it would be more like a consolidation movement where price would drop like 30% and Jack back again, but who knows I might also be wrong.

Well if you want some kind of "rational" response we could build a theory for the next price peak, based on the following statement:

Volatility is declining, but the ups and downs follow a roughly similar pattern than in the previous cycles.

We would then have to find a formula to describe the volatility decline. One very simple measure is to base the decline comparing the difference between 4-year all time highs, in comparison to the previous one. As we had only a few 4-year highs I'll include the 2011 high of 32$.

Then we'd have:

- 2011 -> 2013: 32 to 1200 => ~3650% in 2 years => 510% per year
- 2013 -> 2017: 1200 to 20000 => ~1550% in 4 years => 101% per year
- 2017 -> 2021: 20000 to 70000 => ~250% in 4 years => 36% per year

This already shows us that while volatility is definitely declining, if there is a pattern, it is quite wonky.

One idea is to try to find a trend for the decline of the average yearly growth rates between ATHs. We see that the decline between the 2011-13 growth rate of 510% and the 2013-17 rate of 101% is approximately minus 80%, but between 2013-17 and 2017-21 the decline is is only minus 64%. So we could continue this series and now assume a decline of 48% (80 - 64 = 16, 64 - 16 = 48) between the 2017-21 and the 2021-25 growth rate.

This could give us a growth rate for the "potential peak ATH" this cycle of 19% per year approximately.

As we don't know when the peak will occur, we can simply define some simple points each year based on the 2021 high and apply the +19% formula:

- November 2021: 70000
- November 2022: 83300 (70000 + 19%)
- November 2023: 99127 (83300 + 19%)
- November 2024: 117961 (99127 + 19%)
- November 2025: 140373 (117961 + 19%)

My impression is that the peak will occur some time before November 2025. Perhaps due to expectations based on previous cycles, we are already in a more advanced stage of the bull market in early-to-mid 2024, so I personally expect the peak in the first half of 2025. This would roughly mean that if we go for the formula, the peak could be between 125000 and 135000 USD.

That's approximately the price range where I would be comfortable selling in this cycle. There are however some indications that it could be higher, because 2020/21 was a particularly bad year for the world's economy due to Covid. If the recovery continues and interest rates continue to go down, then I expect more than 135000.

Potential other positive "black swans" could rise the peak even higher:

- China allows crypto again
- The BTC vs gold debate becomes more favourable for BTC and BTC is seen as a real competitor, e.g. first central banks buying BTC

I'm not really expecting these two events soon, so these would count as black swans for me if they occur before mid-2025. But I'm expecting them for the next 2 cycles.

Selling half of it is not a bad idea, we just consider this securing our profit. If it fall, we never regret from missing the opportunity.
Unrealistic...Bitcoin will never go that fast and reach that high instantly. I can't imagine it will happen in two weeks, not even a year. Maybe, it happens in the future but not this coming ATH. Stop believing rumors, $200k is too high.
Just think about this - hold as long as you can but don't bother to decide to sell if you already make a profit. If the purpose of buying Bitcoin is to just hold, then hold. But if our goal is to make money, then why not sell them? 

Don't sell them all instead 50% to be selling and the other 50% will remain holding unless the price reached 100k ten consider releasing them all.

Like my plan to sell half of my holding if we will reach 80k before halving and wil try looking for a chance to buy again once the bear followed , but if not and the price will continue increasing then at least I have my holding.

Yeah, I totally understand it too. I can say now my target is #300k because that is my price now and I would not hesitate to sell everything and semi-retire (I can't afford to retire but this would pay all my debts to zero and get rid of need to pay rent).

But once price reaches $300k for real, I don't know if I can get greedy. Depends when I guess. If it's next year, I might get tempted to wait one more cycle

To purchase shares of the Sacramento Kings, it's probably better to wait for $2,000,000 no? Which Bitcoin surging to $200,000 during a cycle, could add to the probability that Bitcoin could surge to seven digits?

Am I merely being a Moon Boy? I believe not ser. After BlackRock entered Bitcoin Land, followed by the Cabal of some of the largest asset managers around the globe, the kind of investors that will buy those Bitcoin ETFs might not care if the price of Bitcoin is $70,000, $200,000, or $1,000,000. They will buy those Bitcoin ETFs because they need it for their portfolios.

HODL on longer.