Topic: [Aug 2022] Mempool empty! Use this opportunity to Consolidate your small inputs! - page 25. (Read 83494 times)

This would basically mean that the price changes will slow down again.
It's too difficult and risky to make such predictions, I don't believe that yours will be accurate.
I am sure that the mempool will clear up again, but I surely won't risk telling how long will take until that'll happen, especially now when the price is expected to go towards new ATH.

You can not make that prediction.
You see the main reason why fees go up are usually either a spam attack or a big price change (rise or fall). The reason for the current fee spike is the later and when you say "it will be cheap soon" you are actually predicting that price will soon become stable again which is not something you can predict specially now that price is rising faster than before breaking major resistances.
In other words if price rise continues this way, it will be a while before we see 1 sat/vb again.

It is not true. The increase of demand on bitcoin transactions will be reflected on the bigger size in the mempool and higher fee rate for 1 vMB from tip of the mempool.

Usually it will occur when Bitcoin has big movements, ups or downs. With recent movements of Bitcoin and the good history in October, I think you will have to accept higher fee rates in this month.

Obviously, no matter the average fee rates are, you will have cheaper ones in weekends, especially on Sundays and early of Mondays.

I don't know where you got the idea that I am nervous.


I don't know where you got the idea that I need to consolidate every weekend either but I guess it's those airs of superiority that you have.

There is one big difference between that spike and this one, the fees paid by these 40k transactions waiting.
During the peak of that previous one, a 5ast/vb would still have only around 0.2-0.5 Mvb to compete with, right now the same rate of 5sat would put you under 13Mvb.

Those were consolidations or tumblers or whatever, but they went for the minimum fee, this one might actually be real usage by a lot of poeple, not just a few services, the 20k confirmed transactions difference means they are smaller in size so more likely to be single payments.

Chill out mate, wait a couple days and you'll be good. Look at this graph: https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,2w,weight


You can compare the spike right now to the one on 09/30. It will last a few days but it will be nice and cheap soon, I'm sure

re: 'following this issue' it's really not an issue, but this is not a bigblocker debate thread
You should use LN for most of your payments and you don't need to consolidate every weekend (I don't know where you got the idea that we should be able to have an empty mempool next weekend).

40,000 unconfirmed transactions, fees upward. I guess for those of you who have been following this issue for years this is normal. I don't know what you think but it doesn't look like next weekend we will have the mempool cleared and we will be able to consolidate with 1sat/byte.

Made a transaction just some minutes ago. 1 sat/byte, of course, all day long, all year long. Practically seconds after I signed and broadcast, I checked Blockchair mempool and it was 0. I know, I probably wasn't so lucky to have hit it at the precise moment a block was found and not a single tx just missed the cut, but it was a first for me.

Of course, I wanted to take a screenshot, and ended up refreshing by mistake. Price rising, fees stable, how dull

I can confirm a few days ago I sent some satoshis with 1 sat per byte mining fee and the transaction went trough for just a couple of hours, let's say half a day. 

All with 2 outputs, one of them sending 1000 sat to 3CXG4C4gSuGUaMi4UZ7PFAxZwP9Pxo618B. Any guess why they would do that?

It's something normal, spikes like those happen all the time.
Casinos, exchanges, mixers, merchants at one point have to collect all those funds and consolidate them in order to make payouts, but yeah this one was a big one.

Anyhow, here is your culprit:
https://blockchair.com/bitcoin/address/373GifzHRGRBALbtxHNhhQpZ9DqGuet4Dh
about 50 tx with 1000 inputs at around 1-2 sat/b

Probably
That's a consolidation for ants, I've seen much bigger ones.

A question from a dummie.

I've seen pending transactions increase a lot in the last couple of hours:



(source: mempool.space)

Do you think this is a casino or an exchange consolidating a lot of inputs or is it due to some other reason?

to spend bitcoin you do not necessarily need to send using mainnet network, there are many other ways:

• Side chains and lightning network: current network capacity is 2,475.21 BTC and there are a lot of side networks. source: https://1ml.com/
• Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC): ERC-20 token that represents Bitcoin on the Ethereum blockchain.
• Central exchange and Central Payment Methods: Binance exchange and binance pay services, .............
• SegWit, Schnorr, Taproot, and Graftroot

I can think of more reasons.

It has both increased and decreased.

You see shitcoins such as Ethereum depends on hype, and whenever there is a hype going on (eg. ICO scam hype, IEO scam hype, STO, .... and finally these days DeFi scam hype) the number of gamblers increase so they make more transactions. But as each of these hypes slowly die, the number of transactions decrease too.
For example the first peak started with ICO hype and ended in first quarter of 2018 as the ICO hype was dying and (ETH price was dumping hard), the number of transactions also had a nose dive.
The next peak is in mid 2019, exactly when ICO scams restarts with a different name called IEO which only lasts 3 months before popping. You see the same rise and fall on tx count chart.
And so on...
The last one was the end of 2020 when they started a new ICO scam called DeFi, we see another peak in number of transactions bets people make on these scams. The latest bubble that has been bursting in the second half of 2021.

Of course another major reason for tx peak on shitcoins is also their price pump and dumps.

Another major reason is moving some bitcoin tokens to these shitcoin platforms. For example USDT which was a token built on top of bitcoin and didn't exist anywhere else started moving to Ethereum platform and took with it a lot of spam in bitcoin network. Consequently the number of ETH transactions grew while bitcoin spam decreased. But also as ETH transaction fees shoot up (peaked at $70) those projects moved elsewhere hence decreasing the number of ETH transactions.

And little did they know that the cost was only lower because of lack of usage and it actually went up a lot more than bitcoin as those alternatives gained some traction. They also found out that the lower cost was also coming with lower security.

Mempool is empty because there are less transactions, not the other way around.

If the mempool is empty, then bitcoin is used less.
This trend has been going on for some time and has not changed yet.
But in other cryptocurrencies, for example, Ethereum, the number of transactions does not decrease.
When the cost of transactions in bitcoin was high, people looked for a cheap alternative, but when the cost fell to an acceptable level, they began to use less.
Who has any thoughts on this?

No mixer is guaranteed to have no link between the deposit and withdrawal addresses. The link between input and output transactions has been broken for many mixers.

If you are consolidating your coin, the output from the mixer will ultimately be combined into a single address. You could have the mixer send you a single transaction to a single address, or you could have the mixer send you two (or more) transactions to two (or more) addresses. If you instruct the mixer to do the later, you would end up combining inputs from the two addresses anyway.

Yes, this sounds good to me!

How so? Isn't this what the mixing service is made for? To remove links between inputs and outputs?
From the view of the blockchain, I'd expect a mixer that takes multiple inputs on multiple addresses and sends me back the total to like 2 different addresses, to do it in a way that no trace is visible.

In some cases, yes:

My opinion: it depends Consolidating many small inputs at once already links many of your previous transactions together. Mixing the one remaining input doesn't change that.
But in many cases it doesn't really matter: I don't mind if Exchange A can see I also deal with Exchanges B and C, but you may not want your local drug dealer to know that you just bought a jet the other day.

My advice: use coin control, and manually choose which inputs you use for each transaction you make.

I wish But even if I'd bother the campaign manager every week, there'd still be a spreadsheet that shows all addresses for years to come.