Topic: Avalon batch [3] countdown! - page 30. (Read 56642 times)

I honestly don't see how they wouldn't expect a lot of refunds given the circumstances:

- their batch#3 pricing caused an outburst of rage, that went away only when they explained they were basing its price on a certain delivery date (May) when difficulty was expected to be 12 million and ROI aprox. 30 days

- the delay is huge, they say "a few weeks" in the latest newsletter, but it's actually "few months"

- ROI is getting more difficult by the day. As soon as we hit 35 million difficulty, it will become unlikely.

- other vendors have appeared with very good cost/GHs ratio (Bitfury, DIY projects, etc.)

- their first generation technology starts to feel like it's going to be rendered obsolete in a few months, not only because of competition but also because of their own 2nd gen

TL;DR - > if they did not expect massive refund requests they are leaving on another planet.

Yes maybe. The refund request should be anticipated when they stopped to communicate or so with us after getting all preorder... then we became embarrasing forum poster for them...So they should expect people was not patient as they would, especially when people know that avalon have mined with units of batch 1 and 2 before to deliver (and some still waiting)

Maybe they are trying to consolidate their orders with refunds (so they don't waste money on shipping to someone who is going to refuse it), and the large number of refund requests were unexpected.

You forgot to say, 4 weeks after they first deliver all missing of batch 1 and 2 who still crying on forums being ignored. Should give something like 8 weeks from now...

If at least people was informed...receiving some expected communations from the team they funded...

Sorry, but Unfortunately  our SMT-Line is broken. We wait for replacement parts. Delivery of Batch 3 is delayed for another 4 Weeks!

So there is already 18 (6 pm) 15 June Monday in China and no reports of shipping   Thats not good.

Wow! Bloody hell! I did not know that because generally I hate subscriptions and newer subscribe myself.
They definitely should do it automatically when I create an order!
 

You ordered a 10,000 USD machine from a company and didn't sign up for their news letter?

/boggles

Though in complete fairness, Bitsyncom should have signed up people automatically... even though their communication was... ahh... minimal...  during the last 4 months.

Yes, you can in fact get a full refund delivered to the address of your choice. They gave the link for refunds in a recent email. You have until the 14th (tomorrow) to ask, as they say they'll stop accepting refunds when they begin shipping on Monday. Which is also slant confirmation that shipping begins on the 15th.

The numbers just don't make sense to me anymore. 2 months ago would've been okay, but today it's real thin. And that's not even counting the diff increase that batch-3 will result in, which won't be insignificant.

From looking at the numbers, if you had the machine today and diff increases at only its historical average, it's ~4.4 months to break even in terms of BTC.

Knc might ship in as little as two months! And I personally think they will ship, and that will be a far higher diff increase than we've seen so far this year from anyone except AsicMiner. AM will increase their hashing to match Knc's output and just about everyone else will be left in the dust. Avalons will still be net profitable to mine per day, they're still efficient enough, but they won't have had enough lead time to achieve ROI and if Knc ships, they may never achieve ROI. Which is a damn shame. No one's fault, just how the dice rolled.

Both Avalon and Knc are going to be working on 2nd gen ASIC devices, that's where I'll be looking next. Something in the high single or multiple terrahash range for about 50+ btc. Something like a fully custom ASIC such as Bitfury has produced which is the most efficient chip out there now on a hash/watt basis, but in a large die size like KNC produced, and with the modern process size, sub-28nm.

There's something quite beautiful about a free-market drive for ultra-efficient processing And this is only the beginning. If a random company were building payment processing, I doubt they'd build full-on ASICs to take care of it. I'll bet Visa just has giant server farms all over based on stock equipment.

I suppose it won't be long before ASIC-chasers like us exhaust modern tech and begin pushing into exotics. I don't think anyone has more incentive to use ultra-efficient designs than bitcoin miners. How long until we see designs using carbon transistors and the like, stuff that is still in labs today. Gonna be exciting to watch

Did anybody succeeded in changing the shipping address of avalon batch#3 order?

That's irrelevant if you deciding whether to get a refund or not.  If you get a refund you've still got the BTC you paid for the unit up front (in theory).  If you don't you have to wait god knows how long to get your BTC back, if at all.
If you get a refund then you can invest in other things like ASICMiner, which still has a pretty decent ROI all things considered.

You got the last newsletter? You have one day to decide for a refund.

So we can get full refund?  I'm getting tired of waiting too!  I think I'll take the refund.

Now that we know when they would have been shipped roughly, the appropriate price for a batch-3 four-unit should've been roughly 40-45 bitcoin, not 99 (for a 30-day to ROI). Which would've been ~$3200 back when these sold with the price of btc at ~$80.

I bet if that had been the price, few would be asking for a refund right now. Alternately, if Bitsyncom had offered 59 btc refunds back to that price level that would've been perhaps better than giving full refunds.

But again, I laud Bitsyncom for doing the honorable thing and offering full refunds in BTC. Once again they make BFL look bad by comparison, and I'd be happy to shake Guo's hand any day. Whereas, I doubt Inaba can show his face anywhere bitcoin-related without watching his back

I think this is the best idea. Gamble on an ROI in 5 months to never, or get all money and invest it in a few other things.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AmXn4BnLUgYsdEF0TUtWUWtUaUUzR1F2aUhEWW9lN2c#gid=0

Here is another one.
Both indicated that you might break even if you received the miner as promised some time next week.
And at most you will make a few hundreds profit even if you mine forever (already taken overclocking into account)....so whats the point?
But who knows, what if btc sky rocket to 300usd again?

I don't think they'll ROI personally.  I had a play with this calculator a few weeks back (http://www.coinish.com/calc/ - link doesn't work anymore) and found that if delivery was later than about 5 weeks (~3 weeks from now I think) then they wouldn't ROI in BTC.  If anyone knows of another good mining calculator that takes difficulty increases into account let me know.  Apparently you can get 100 Ghash/sec out of overclocked 4 module Avalons but I would assume it needs water cooling (or good aircon at a minimum) and it would be a bit risky as it would reduce the lifespan of the chips I think.
FTR I've applied for a refund.

The question is... what are the odds that KNC will be able to deliver on time.

Bitfury though seems to be on track with chips that work (albeit not at the speed they wanted).  They however are distracted by the main focus which is their 100TH mine.

Basically the only games in town "right now" for B3 order holders is Avalon and AM.  AM is definitely a bad deal.  Avalon??

/shrug

Looks reeeally risky at this point. Had they shipped two months ago we'd all be sitting pretty. But now? With KNC potentially shipping in Sept? With Bitfury, and AMiner ramping up through the end of the year? And Avalon shipping how many hundred thousand chips?

You can either keep your batch three 85 gh/sec 4-unit or pull a refund and buy 600gh/sec from KNC (Jupiter and a Saturn) and get it like two months from now. The latter seems a better bet at this point.

I have to say it's mighty decent of Bitsyncom to offer full refunds, in bitcoin no less. What will they do with the leftover machines?