Topic: Avalon batch 3 is almost $6000 (Read 1943 times)

Apology accepted. If post count matched up to knowledge level there would be A LOT of really stupid people out there.

I dunno I still get paid in USD, so that means I need to earn now $6536 USD to purchase. I wont argue the value of the Avalon because I still think its worth it however I wont be able to earn one any time soon.

Sad part is I planned on buying one at the 1499 price, and had the money saved to do so.

Id rather the BTC prices stayed tied to whatever we get Paid in, until maybe one day we get paid in BTC, or heck maybe you already are getting paid in BTC.

What sense does it make to calculate the price in Bitcoins? Its the value that matters. And if you can buy way more in the real world now with the same bitcoins then the machine is way more expensive now.

Even if there's no more other competitors releasing any asic product to the market, the ROI of batch#3 would be around half a year from the time you pay for it.
Let's compare this with GPU mining.  Let's say we buy a second hand 6990 for $350 USD (current market price).
Based on the calculation at http://www.dustcoin.com with the current difficulty, the ROI of one 6990 is 2.5 months.  Since the difficult is increasing, we may need 4 months to mine $350 USD from now.
But the ROI time is still less than or comparable to the batch#3 asic.  

Plus, you can sell your 6990 for $200-300USD  4 months later in case BTC price drops or the difficulty is too high.

So the question is why people invest $6000 in batch#3 with high risk while even investing in GPU(not to say FPGA) mining is more/equal profitable with no risk?

If BTC price crashes to $1 people will stop mining and buy BTC instead, which provides some stability against a race to the bottom and bring the price back up. Thus, the bitcoin price is backed my the price of energy and the efficiency of the mining devices. As far as the pricing goes... of course the minimum price is production cost + healthy profit margin. But Avalon was faced with a dilemma to distribute the hashing power fairly - and the only way to do that is to market the devices based on projected profits, which they could have easily set to a higher level btw.

^^ This +infinity

That's why, I said you can never leave out USD conversion rate to get "value" of BTC. The logic is flawed otherwise, since there is no intrinsic value of BTC.

Based on your opinion, let's predict the price of batch#3 by assuming the BTC price drops?
Let's say the BTC price drops to $1 and this machine have the potential of making 3 BTC per day.
Based on your opinion, they should sell batch#3 for around 100 BTC which worth around $100USD.
Don't you think it's ridiculous?

Ive had a really tough one but that made my day..  Team Avalon has kneed these dudes where the sun dont shine andi cant even say they are re-grouping! Their mouth is open but nothing is coming out!

I apologize if I came off a bit aggressive in my original post. I just assumed that someone with over 250 posts on this forum would have some understanding of the underlying fundamentals.

In my opinion, the rise from 1500 to 6000 is due more to the rise in the trading price of bitcoin, and the comparative profit potential of a machine that can make 3 btc per day (currently)

As an example, consider that for the price of 3 months mortgage payments, you could purchase a device that would essentially print enough money to pay your mortgage each month. that's the way it would work if the price were fixed and the difficulty never changed.

The problem is, that the price is not fixed, and the difficulty does change. This means that there is a great deal of risk (and possible reward) involved in mining. There is no warranty, there are no guarantees. "You pays your money and you takes your chances."

If you really want to understand the aspects behind the driving forces of bitcoin, I suggest you start here -> The Money Masters <- that's where I started.

The road is long and winding. I cannot tell you where it might lead, all I can show you is the path.

:edit: if you watch the linked video, you will see that it is the ones that are in control of issuing the money that have the power. With the advent of bitcoin, that power has been distributed into the hands of the miners (and perhaps the people that create the devices that allow such issuance of money (ASIC producers)) This will perhaps explain why such a premium is placed on acquiring these devices.

The swoop hasn't happened in BTC land.

I strongly suspect there will a 4th batch and so on. And it will be ROI adjusted, e.g. by a lower BTC amount (50-60 BTC?). Note that by the time they open the order window for the 4th batch you may be paying $50,000 for the 63GH/s, given an insane rally of the BTC to $1000 as some predict.

Obviously if you get a dead on arrival you should get a refund. If something breaks you need to discuss it with the support staff.
Mining with ASICs is no-newbie land. There is a certain risk of failure and loss of investment. It's something GPU users are not used to.

I admit I don't understand the technical aspect behind the economics of this industry and while it considered an experiment people are still putting up thousands of BTC each day. For my stand point since I have to pay my bills in US Dollars and not BTC, I have to compare the BTC value against something that is worth something to me. A dollar. If I could pay my mortgage with btc and my cable bill, electric bill then I could understand more...but since I can't it is hard for me to wrap my head around the high price, which in my mind is 3 mortgage payments. It is so mind boggling! If the cost of it was $3k, I would do it.  I'm just more surprised they went from $1500 to $6000 in one swoop. I guess because of that large increase they are expecting BFL to deliver maybe? IF BFL does delivery, will Avalon even have a 4th batch? If not, then what about warranty and stuff like that? Hardware issues?

Normally you are right, given that the inflation of the USD is 0 (which it isn't). But mining equipment is a special case, because you have to account for opportunity cost, i.e. the increase in purchasing power of the BTC.

The problem of high inflation, high deflation and the likes is that it blows your mind when trying to plan in microeconomic terms. That's one of the reasons why economies go into recession when the monetary base becomes unstable.

I lose a little more faith in humanity each time I hear someone still believing in these absurd tales.

Sorry, it seems like I didn't read in detail.. Yes. spending the equivalent of 250 BTC now for having a 3 weeks head start on a miner which can generate 100 BTC in a month vs. one which costs 100 BTC also escapes my logic. However, as mentioned in other places this was likely to be a fake bidding, trying to inflate the price (ebay has a poor protection against bid manipulations).

Why do we obtain the "price" of BTC from usd conversion whenever we compare historically, but never the other way round ? Shouldn't it be consistent ? If intrinsic value of BTC has increased, then current price of an object should cost less btc, and vice versa, Don't you think ?

So, it will be consistent if fiat conversion value/price is completely taken out of equation. Oh wait - then how do we measure the value ? Looks like we do not have any :-(

How is this relevant? I'm referring to the people spending $15k-$20k on batch #2 on eBay. That's just as much of a risk, if not more so, than spending $6k on a batch #3 order.

If anything it justifies the price if people are willing to drop that much for an earlier pre-order batch. If Avalon kept the price the same it'd get tons of people buying units to resell.

Im broken hearted ... https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitfloor-cash-deposit-159340




Re guarding AVALON! They deserve it .. blistering fast support, first in the world , and they actually delivered!!!!! Look @ how they dialog with people .. i talked to him earlier about an exception for a wire transfer, and support was blistering FAST! Nice guy... humble in his tone  ...

23yr old kicks big company square in the nuts and they just sat their like a lil girl!
( i vote for him ) & i tried to vote with $$$$ but... ( thats how it goes sometime)


They should be proud, both of them! I went through hell and high water trying to get $6k  Finally i thought it was in the bag but the..

It wasnt for the whole deposit issue....   If it wasnt for that i would be a proud owner of an AVALON ASIC MINER!  
 

When was the batch #2 order window closed and what was the BTC price? Please do your research.

here is my projection computation, made up out of thin air (and the experience of mining for almost 2 years now)

for a much better projection please see some real math from organofcorti


as for the "fiat for food" argument, we'll revisit that in a couple years when it costs $10 for a loaf of bread...

There's only a 22 day shipping difference between batch #2 and batch #3, assuming everything sticks to schedule. In terms of achieving ROI, paying $15,000 is arguably more of a risk than paying $5,000 - 6,000.

Questions like these are usually raised by people who do not understand the economics of mining.

Short answer: see above, pricing has to be done in BTC, due to opportunity cost.

Long answer: What you want is to value the miner in terms of it's ability to perform a ROI in a feasible amount of time. At the break even point, the mining generated as much BTC as you spent when you acquired the equipment. Given that 63 GH/s at 75 BTC currently roughly has a ROI of 1 month puts things into perspective. However, you have to account for the expansion of the network. So a 10x increase of the ROI time is certainly possible. The truth will be somewhere in between - probably around 3 months when they are delivered on time. Expect to make a profit after the first year, and retire the equipment after the second year, unless you have access to cheap power or the purchasing power of BTC soars.

Share your projection computation please ? I would love to see that.

BTW - it is still usd 6k, and it is not an inflation of usd - it is supply/demand in a small market (bitcoins). If/when demand falls, bitcoin/usd exchage will fall as well, and that would not mean a deflation of usd.

No matter how you cut it, you will have to use fiat to get food - in majority of cases. It is years away (if ever) for bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency to take over fiat, as mass adaptation is just not possible.

the re-selling is batch#2, not batch#3. a big difference
who is willing to take batch#3 for $15,000?

yes, the price is $6000 (or 72.36 BTC)

but this is simply inflation of $fiat$ ....

many people ordered batch 1 at around 100 BTC. so the price measured in BTC has actually dropped.

People need to stop measuring value in dollars, the time of central bank controlled fiat is coming to an end (though it may still take years)

Which brings me to the biggest problem I have with people complaining about the price: Ask yourself, what would you do if you were selling a product for $1500 and people were re-selling your product for over $15,000? Do you think you may consider raising the price a little?

I know I'd be as mad as hell if I created something, and shared it with a bunch of people, and then those same people profited from my hard work by ten-fold with no additional work or value added of their own.



Once again, they are not selling their product for $6000. They are selling it for 72.36 BTC. And my projections tell me that this product will create at least 72.36 BTC in a maximum of 3 months, even in a worst case scenario... And you have the nerve to complain that you can't make profit off of their hard work in less than a month?

Now who's got the "greed bug"?  

Are people really paying this much for a miner? That's a shit load of money and if BFL ever delivers you'll be shit out of luck cause they'll pump out 200-300 units a day. Apparently Avalon is in it for the money, I thought they were here to protect the network. Hahaha, a little money on their lips and they got the greed bug.