you seem to focus a lot on "more people not selling" instead of focusing on "more people buying" which is in my opinion the main reason why bitcoin price keeps going on. you see, whether or not someone holds their bitcoin isn't going to affect the market at all because someone who holds is not even participating in the market. but those that are buying are actually participating in the market (with their buys) so they are affecting the price.
so the only logical conclusion is that price goes up as more people start buying bitcoin. or in better terms, as more money comes in whether it is from new investors or the old investors investing more money.
Topic: Backbone analogy for BTC current & future price movements - page 2. (Read 330 times)
What you have been missing out is that "hard hold" people are not selling their coins, so they are not deciding on the price neither.
So, let's say the market is filled with people who wouldn't mind selling for 1000 dollars right? Now why would they sell at 1000 when price is almost 9000 and that is correct but from $9k to $1k if everyone started selling and didn't mind selling as well, the person who is "hard hold" will not have any say in it until they actually went up and buy.
So, the bottom is not actually people who decline to sell, it is people who are willing to buy at lower levels, it is not about who will "not sell" at $3k but more about who will "buy as much as they can afford at $3k" levels, that makes it a bottom. People who do not sell only helps the price not go down in the sense that if they sold the price would go down, it doesn't "stop" price going down but it also doesn't causes it neither. Add that and you will be right with all the rest.
So, let's say the market is filled with people who wouldn't mind selling for 1000 dollars right? Now why would they sell at 1000 when price is almost 9000 and that is correct but from $9k to $1k if everyone started selling and didn't mind selling as well, the person who is "hard hold" will not have any say in it until they actually went up and buy.
So, the bottom is not actually people who decline to sell, it is people who are willing to buy at lower levels, it is not about who will "not sell" at $3k but more about who will "buy as much as they can afford at $3k" levels, that makes it a bottom. People who do not sell only helps the price not go down in the sense that if they sold the price would go down, it doesn't "stop" price going down but it also doesn't causes it neither. Add that and you will be right with all the rest.
Guys, this is my personal point of view. I would like to have some feedback & your own personal insights.
The price is just an information tool. It tells people how much the market is willing to pay for something. BTC price right now can tell us how small is the amount of individuals who really understand BTC & see it's inmense value. In the other hand, BTC price is also inflated by those who speculate on something they don't even understand. BTC hard HODL level (support) is very difficult to brake because those participants are not willing to sell something that they value many times what the market is offering. This base level is made up by highly educated people, with low time preference. Which means they are betting for the long term, don't need to cash out anytime soon & have no doubt in their mind about the real value of this technology. Metaphorically, support level could be the bottom of the ocean. Contrarian to this, the surface behaves completely different. There are lots of movements & volatility. It is because is built in newcomer, speculators, uneducated people, highly emotional individuals, short term mentality, high time preferences & so forth.
With this said the next few months the HARD HODL lvl (support) will rise steady because of the halving. Less people will sell. Miners and hard hodlers. Demand will rise because people don't want to miss out on the halving event. FOMO will build up. Whales will take advantage of surface movements. Volatility will increase due to pump&dumps with no real reason behind it.
Taking all this analogy and theory as a backbone to price movements at this time, the rise in price of BTC is manipulated & it will fall again over a rising support, I would say just below 8 thousand or 8 thousand. The supports are the price to consider. Anything above that is the insanity of the surface oceans, full of changes in the waves and weather.
After the halving, demand will double the previous supply & maybe triple because less & less people will sell due to the price ingiting. Hodlers will only sell if the price is tempting enough. The ratio demand:supply & the support levels will increase consistently until the end of the bull run. And then a new low for the next cycle will emerge (which will be much higher than the 3k of previows cycle due to new comers).
Had fun writing & thinking all this through. BTC has made my life so much interesting. I'm really impressed. If you read "the use of knowledge in society" by F.A. Hayek, you will see that BTC is described in 1945 as a solution to the problem of the modern economy. Fascinating.
The price is just an information tool. It tells people how much the market is willing to pay for something. BTC price right now can tell us how small is the amount of individuals who really understand BTC & see it's inmense value. In the other hand, BTC price is also inflated by those who speculate on something they don't even understand. BTC hard HODL level (support) is very difficult to brake because those participants are not willing to sell something that they value many times what the market is offering. This base level is made up by highly educated people, with low time preference. Which means they are betting for the long term, don't need to cash out anytime soon & have no doubt in their mind about the real value of this technology. Metaphorically, support level could be the bottom of the ocean. Contrarian to this, the surface behaves completely different. There are lots of movements & volatility. It is because is built in newcomer, speculators, uneducated people, highly emotional individuals, short term mentality, high time preferences & so forth.
With this said the next few months the HARD HODL lvl (support) will rise steady because of the halving. Less people will sell. Miners and hard hodlers. Demand will rise because people don't want to miss out on the halving event. FOMO will build up. Whales will take advantage of surface movements. Volatility will increase due to pump&dumps with no real reason behind it.
Taking all this analogy and theory as a backbone to price movements at this time, the rise in price of BTC is manipulated & it will fall again over a rising support, I would say just below 8 thousand or 8 thousand. The supports are the price to consider. Anything above that is the insanity of the surface oceans, full of changes in the waves and weather.
After the halving, demand will double the previous supply & maybe triple because less & less people will sell due to the price ingiting. Hodlers will only sell if the price is tempting enough. The ratio demand:supply & the support levels will increase consistently until the end of the bull run. And then a new low for the next cycle will emerge (which will be much higher than the 3k of previows cycle due to new comers).
Had fun writing & thinking all this through. BTC has made my life so much interesting. I'm really impressed. If you read "the use of knowledge in society" by F.A. Hayek, you will see that BTC is described in 1945 as a solution to the problem of the modern economy. Fascinating.
Jump to: