Topic: Bakkt launching on Dec12, is it will start a bull run? (Read 720 times)

Then it will go up pretty much guaranteed. The demand is already there, there's a lot of people that haven't invested yet because they are computer illiterates. There's a ton of boomers out there that simply aren't cut to be custodians of their own bitcoins, and this could finally be what helps them to get that 1% diversification into BTC.

At some point not owning BTC will pose a bigger risk than owning BTC, once this is widely understood FOMO will kick in and things like Bakkt will help everyone that doesn't know how to deal with computers to get themselves exposed to the market. We all know ideally everyone should learn how to deal with their own coins but that will never happen, so the more ways to get people on board the better. Im not bothered by it as long as contracts are bitcoin-settled.

The theoretical impact is increased demand. Retirement and 401k and pension fund moneys will have more access, as institutions use Bakkt for trading. Purchases should outpace sales for sometime as things ramp up, and those purchases bitcoins will be held in custody by Bakkt.  Most likely supply will come OTC, but regardless if it comes OTC or from Coinbase/Gemini exchanges, it will be a part of the overall supply/demand economics and have some positive influence over price.

How much positive influence? Impossible to know.

Its similar to halving. We can look at historical charts and see correlation to price moves 6-18 months after halving. But since its impossible to know the tipping point between daily bid/asks averages, we can really only speculate based on hindsight 20/20 data.

Any run up into Dec. 7th, will be simply rumor/news influence and will be sold off to a degree. Perhaps we can look back 6-8 months from now and have a better sense of the real affect of Bakkt.

Yeah, it is going to be bitcoin settled and that is what makes it different from other futures contract. Nonetheless, the impact it would really have on the market generally is something I am still trying to wrap my head around and like you said, I guess we will just have to wait and see.

Nonetheless, we have always known the practices of the Wall street and some of their shenanigans, so in this case, I really would not want to be so optimistic with whatever comes out with Bakkt, until I get to see it happen. Bull run though is something I hardly believe will be happening anytime soon, with or without Bakkt.

Me too my friend.

it gets a bit more complicated with rehypothecation of collateral. the question will always remain---they may control a certain amount of bitcoin, but how many times have those bitcoins been pledged to different parties? this is how it works in today's markets:


very true. it doesn't matter to bitcoin holders---at least outside of a short term "bad news" event.

except for one other consideration---the possibility of market manipulation. i'm ambivalent about this.

Bakkt could be audited if in doubt of they owning the required collateral amounts of bitcoin, they could show their wallets and cryptographically sign them. With gold you are supposed to believe the amount is there somewhere, so it being physical is actually more troublesome. It's not on their incentive to get caught faking something that can easily be proven, you either own the coins or you don't.

I think people worry too much about these things. What are they going to do, sell a bunch of bitcoin they don't have and fail on the delivery on someone else? who cares, 21 million coin limit is always there. Naked shorting doesn't have an impact on bitcoin long term.

Fine. But you were clearly making an argument that Bakkt would not have a positive impact on price action and moreover, would potentially have a negative one. This smacks of agenda and twisting of reality. Bakkt might not start a rally, but with Goldman and others coming on board to allow their institutional investors access to bitcoin, that is obviously a net positive.

The people using Bakkt arent this "we" that you are talking about. Keep your offline cold storage and your paper key. Bitcoin is big enough for everyone, including wall street.

how did i make a fool of myself? point out some examples and explain.

in truth, you're completely misrepresenting what i said. i specifically said "i'm not sure that he's wrong", "i'm not sure myself", and "i think it's actually a legitimate point of contention" based on X, Y, and Z.

how do you manage to misconstrue this---

wtf are you even talking about? all you do is attack people with ad hominems. i'm just being skeptical and pointing out why it's foolish to make grand assumptions based on press releases. what's wrong with that?

fyi, this is a bitcoin forum and you're telling everyone they should blindly trust press releases from banksters. check yourself before you tell other people they made a fool of themselves lol.

The issue was never about whether the net difference between long and shorts (bitcoins purchased) is physically deliverable. That doesn't speak to whether all contracts are fully backed by BTC at all.

It's funny to me how we went from opposing trust, to trusting institutions to "back" contracts with BTC, and now we're even trusting every word a banker says. This is the evolution of Bitcoin users.


You left out the second part of the sentence, which clarified that futures exchanges don't need to issue contracts on a 1:1 basis to the underlying inventory. Nobody said an inventory doesn't exist, nor that Bakkt's contracts wouldn't be fully backed by equivalent value. I'm just not confident that in a "bank run" scenario that all contracts would be physically deliverable in BTC. I don't really care either. But it's an additional reason why I wouldn't store BTC with Bakkt, beyond those that apply to conventional exchanges like Coinbase.

I agree. It's not like there isn't demand, it's just that a lot of people are afraid if they buy now maybe it drops down again for a few months. I don't think that is very likely but I guess in times like these at the bottom of a bear market even Bitcoin investors are wary.

A strong and lasting surge above the last high of the bear market ($7400), for whatever reason, could clear these people of their fears and get them to to start buying back in, and that process will just feed on itself, starting the next bull run.

I'm not sure BAKKT opening will actually create a pump though immediately. The way I understand it ICE has to go buy up Bitcoin to back all the trades people make for whatever initial demand they think they will have. I'd bet they're already doing that. I think BAKKT will only start to move the needle once it starts bringing in more of Wall St in the months following its opening.

This is good news and this is going to triger another bull market.  If you take your mind back you will agree with me that future trade was the reason for the bull run last year and the samething might happen again.  I think we should buy now and do the samething that happens last year . Many of us that buy bitcoin this time last year makes profits from it in December because of this same future trade.

Even though some of the things you have said may be right, but I still do not see it bringing any possible bull run. I am sure people's perspective when it comes to Bakkt is to be associating it with the likes of CBOE futures that we had last year which to me seems more like something that was busy suppressing the market even though it is delivered in fiat.

I am not sure what Bakkt will bring positively or negatively, but it is not a bad idea looking at the angle they are coming with in terms of their own future trading. One way I think though is that the market will always do whatever it wants, and most times, things like this just do not effect into a bull run immediately, and we will get to see the market develop to some extent first before we even start seeing any.

that may be more than enough to start the bull run!

at this point price is not down because of lack of demand! there is a huge demand for bitcoin which is increasing every day. the problem is that this demand is scared of the market at the moment so it is waiting on the sideline for some signal before they can jump in. they have been burned so many times this year that they don't want to be burnt again.
(this is also why some people consider this price under the real value aka underpriced)

a rise, for whatever foolish reason can bring back that confidence specially if we end up breaking some sort of resistance.

You made a fool of yourself. You and the original person I was responding to simply choose to believe that Bakkt is bullshitting people. I happen to believe that they are not. I happen to believe what they have said is true and factual. Just because you have a conspiracy theory about how they are obfuscating the truth right in front of the public's eye, doesn't mean I am speculating.

There is only one person speculating and it is you.

In another 6 weeks, that'll be proven out and you will probably be on to some other thing that you are trying to discredit because A) your bored B) you have an agenda or C) you're ignorant. I've seen dozens like you before you and there will be dozens more like you in the future.

Sooner or later the bull run will start. It take takes few months or many months but a time will come when market and people sentiments will be bullish and they will know that bitcoin is the real future and real money. The major cause can be a downfall of fiat from where bitcoin will take over.

can't prevail by way of reason or facts, so you try to prove your point by waving your dick around? that's cute.

not interested in betting on utter speculation---i'm a trader, not a gambler. also not interested in risking a bitcoin with a trusted third party escrow. i just saw some baseless claims and called them out as such.

at least you've conceded you're not operating off facts, but rather the word of bakkt's PR folks. good enough for me.

Hopefully,we are running out of factors to make the bull run, hopefully this event could be the start of Bitcoin to run again, from the article it showed so many prospect for the future, so I believe this could attract more investors, but I don't know whether this thing will be good or not for long term, and how long can this event make the bull run

Ok, lets bet a bitcoin on it? If you are so sure this is the same set up as Comex, then lets bet a bitcoin on it and see. I say they are telling the truth, you say they are lieing. Let's go?

what facts, lol?

you can't point to any filings that confirm what you're saying. this is all speculation, including everything you've said. you're the one hand-waving away how wall street literally operates day-to-day by saying "no way, not with bitcoin, cuz wall street banksters said so in a press release"!

if what you're saying about bitcoin vs gold is true, why does grayscale charge a 2% annual fee to hold bitcoins for its traders? why does everyone say "wall street is waiting for regulated exchanges"?

if holding gold is "difficult", why does that mean comex should implement fractional reserve practices?


comex has large gold vaults too. they have gold; they just can't fully deliver on it. FYI, gold is just one example of how collateralization works on wall street. 

i'll tell you one thing: an exchange can make a lot more via trading commissions and carry costs with fractional reserve. if they can legally issue more contracts than they can cover, why wouldn't they? it's simply rational.


again, comex says they hold physical gold in their vaults. and it's true. that doesn't mean they can cover all outstanding longs with physical gold.

this is literally the exact same dynamic. bakkt has rational incentive to issue contracts beyond physical bitcoin collateral, there's no legal reason not to, and it's how everything else works on wall street. why would you assume everything will be different for bitcoin?

It is ludicrous to compare this to gold. If they said you bought an ounce of gold and then they gave you an ounce of gold to your account, where the hell is your account and where do you pick it up if you want?

If they deliver bitcoin to your account, then its easy to take your bitcoin if you want it. This isn't "paper" bitcoin with no actual backing. This is digital bitcoin right off the blockchain onto their off chain system. They've said so. I'm not doing any more research for the thread.

I know some of the people on here are looking for lower prices. Maybe you'll be lucky and get them. But let's not be obtuse.