Topic: Banks would suffer till at least 2025, according to IMF - page 2. (Read 572 times)

The IMF is not an international organization for nothing. The 2025 bounce back study of them surely have undergone serious study and investigation. They have been established long before we know it. We may see many people in the beaches and in the streets in America, it doesn't mean that their banks are not stumbling. Maybe they are just seeing the tip of the iceberg not the bottom. America may be a huge earning country but it also has lots of people to feed and over 1 million have alredy been infected.

I still agree that America is one powerful country. It will surely stabilize but not in a rapid way. This pandemic may last for more months to a year if a vaccine is still not found. So, once everything goes back to normal, America can rise up again easily.

When a bank makes profits,the profits go in the bank owners pockets.
When a bank has losses,those losses are covered by the government(taxpayers),by the central bank(newly printed money)or by the people,who deposited their savings in that bank.
Banks are the casinos of the global "casino capitalism". I couldn't care less about their financial condition.
Warren Buffet is kinda right here.America is still strong and this corona crisis won't lead to the collapse of the biggest economy in the world.

According to Q1 numbers, Berkshire Hathaway is amassing record amounts of cash, meaning they aren't buying equities. If we read between the lines, they are expecting deeper discounts to come.

So while Buffet may be expressing optimism (and over the long term he is probably right) that doesn't rule out a grim outlook for the next 2-3 years.

I think this not similar to the economic meltdown in 2008, wherein the banking system always collapse if not for the bail out of the US government because of the Lehman Brothers. Yes, it was followed by a global economic crisis, but banks has survived. They can suffer but for sure not in 5 years though.


Banks have plenty of money today, so they can play around with it to stir the US economy to be able to recover.

America can turn great depression into victory and prosperity after winning World War II. With QE to overcome subprime mortgages, America can still maintain its dominance as a barometer of the world economy. If the pandemic only attacks America maybe America will be defeated, but in reality all countries are affected by the corona pandemic and experiencing economic contraction.

But unlike America, other countries suffered two major beatings, namely the impact of the domestic pandemic and the impact of the pandemic on the American economy as a barometer of the world economy. If America faces a recession and China experiences a contraction you can imagine the effect of a pandemic on developing countries or countries that depend on foreign debt, countries that depend on imports and countries that depend on the dollar.

Some economic observers in Indonesia see the Berkshire Hathway action to release its shares in many industries as an indication of the economic reset that will be carried out by the Wall Street authorities. Many big Wall Street players sell their shares and hold fiat money. They do not care about the stock market crash because they have withdrawn the money because they read that the papers are overvalued and must be discarded.

Economic conditions due to the pandemic in America are the only repetition of old stories with different narratives. Whatever the conditions of the Wallstreet rulers, they are ready to face them because they are the rulers and they are the ones who determine the initial and final forms. Rothschild, Rockefeller, Oppenheimer, Muzin, Ican, Zukker are a group of mormons who have mastered Wallstreet for almost 4-5 generations.

Banks will "never" suffer, not just now and not until 2025. They will do a bit worse probably, but do you know the main reason? Because banks do more than just being banks and the understanding what banks do as a job changed over centuries. Normally it was a simple place where you deposit money, withdraw money, get savings interest, or get a loan and pay back with interest and that was it for a long period of time. Now banks gets a ton of money, plus they do insurance as well together, or have the biggest share in insurance companies.

So, they have plenty of money that they will never have to pay back, and they use that to buy out companies and buy 80-90% of big companies and use that income as profit of their own. Now that those companies are not making profit, banks are "not making profit" but they shouldn't have done that to begin with anyway.

5 years is a very long time IMO, and it could be shorten if the government carries on with babying the banks for its benefit. With the government corroborating with most of the banks' actions, I think the US gov't would give more favorable financial adjustments to the banks in order to stimulate their financial exploits and help carry America back to greatness. This has happened in the shadows for long though it might be too obvious after this pandemic.


Pretty sure Buffett already made some moves behind-the-scenes and doesn't want to make it known in order to take advantage of the leverage he's made. If you're a huge businessman like him, you'd definitely maximize the position you acquired to its fullest, and I think that is what he's been doing during the course of this pandemic.

I agree, 5 years is very long time and if banks need that long then other businesses and average people would need twice as that.
However, at this stage these are only predictions and guessings, probably in the worst scenario, but economy hasn't strarted to show bad signs yet and only fall and winter will show the true state of play. If another wave of virus doesn't strike again.
Stil I hope that economies will manage to recover sooner and that at the end all this predictions will turn out exaggerated.
However, hope for the best, expect the worst.

I agree, the minimum to average income earners will be the mostly affected for this crisis. It's a bad sign for the entire world and for those countries that just simply follows the lead of US, they'll also take the same path as them.

Some countries like Saudi Arabia increases their tax.

Saudi Arabia triples taxes, cuts $26B in costs amid pandemic

This action made by them is also likely to happen to US and that's why I've said that the minimum-average people will be the once to deal with this cost.

If a bank needs 5 years to recover, imagine how much the average Joe needs. We've been all hit much harder than a bank and the result will be seen pretty soon..

There are some very good indicators out there (good for predictions, not good as in positive) that show very well how hard this entire Corona thing hit us. For one, number of suicides & heart attacks in the past few weeks. More than half a million britons registered for a suicide prevention course. This entire situation hurts everything: health, our mental, the economy etc.

I keep waiting for that true face of the economy to be seen, because everyone's trying to cover it up and once the beast unleashes it's going to be a blitzkrieg from all sides..

America as an epicenter of the pandemic will obviously suffer a lot especially on its economy though their economy is highly developed and mixed, its structure cannot withstand with the effects of pandemic from million unemployment rate to billions of relief they need for their citizen. No one would really think that they are just going to bounce back easily. Just imagine if you are the president or any official from that state, you are handling 50 states with over 350 million residents, and 1.6M of those are infected with corona virus. 36 millions from that is unemployed that is covered for benefits from state, just imagine how much will that costs for America.

It might really take time before America can finally get back what they have lost during this pandemic since they are hugely affected by this. But it's not only America since a lot of countries are also facing the same dilemma. It might take 5 years if the vaccine can't be found immediately, and the government won't work efficiently to fight against the pandemic.

I kinda agree that America can still stand despite the big losses brought by the virus. When they can finally stabilize the growth of COVID cases and as long as they can adapt living normally with extra caution even when there's still a virus, the economy won't crash that hard. If they can learn from other countries who manage to control and flatten the curve, America can lessen its possible losses.

5 years is huge period to get back on track for any nation. When it comes to America then their wealth structure is pretty stubborn as compared to other nations worldwide. I believe US will surely retain its position of being top player of economy which it has done since 1871 as per study.

GDP of US is gonna be $21.44 trillion by the end of 2020 being in the endemic scenario of Corona. This is way more GDP than 2008 crisis which was about  $14,712,800 million. (Reference :- US GDP 2008)

Whether we predict it even worst value than mentioned above then also US stands bigger chance of improving its economic situation than anyone else.

It doesn't seem like the US could actually bounce back immediately after this, even with them being at the top. What more of those countries at the lower end right? Sure, the damage may not be as huge as what the US was inflicted but we've got to look at the scale instead. Plus, even if we did give at least 5 years to the banks, them bouncing back that fast seems to be out of the question. The vaccine hasn't even been made yet and there aren't really any positive news with regards to it after all, so it may actually take longer than that.

On a side note, Warren Buffett remarks the following


Basically Warren Buffet, a key player of the 2008 financial crisis, believes that America can still standstill despite the overwhelming losses that the economy of the US has experienced and would probably experience in the next few years. Nonetheless, he hasn't really made any large moves recently, even with the stocks dropping quite hugely.

Sources:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahhansen/2020/05/22/banks-earnings-will-suffer-until-2025-because-of-coronavirus-imf-says/#2988a50a798e

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2020/05/16/buffett-sells-stocks-goldman-sachs-no-elephant-sized-acquisition/#6f29ca7bbbf9