My assumption of the events so far:
[1]Everything from Bitcoinica has been leaked, including credentials. I haven't been keeping up as much as I should have since I had nothing in there -- maybe that's already public knowledge. The other alternative is that EMC's credentials db was compromised, but I find that hard to believe. There are some other alternatives, including a brute force attack, which seem even more unlikely.
[2]It's possible I was stupid enough to use the same or similar password on Bitcoinica as LastPass. Clearly, I was stupid enough to use the same Gmail pw as Bitcoinica. I no longer have history of what my old LP master password was before changing it.
[3]The attacker accidentally logged onto Gmail using Tor, without realizing Gmail has Tor mostly blacklisted. He was not expecting me to be alerted. Perhaps he did not expect me to wake up relatively soon. Had he been more clever, he would have used the AWS server in MI to begin with.
[4]The attacker then....? Well, I'm not really sure what he did from 6am to 1:30pm. Maybe took a nap.
[5]While the attacker was napping and I was alerted to the unauthorized use, I changed all of my passwords to sensitive sites, including GLBSE, and LastPass, obviously.
[6]I eventually emailed Nef (11:30am? I don't have access to that email account right now), asking him to freeze my account and release recent activity info to me. He did not respond, I assume because he was sleeping.
[7]I'm assuming the session the attacker had active from before I changed the password never expired on GLBSE, nor was revoked when I changed the pw. I did not think to enable 2FA for all activities until after the withdrawal. I did not have 2FA enabled prior to this attack because I'm too cheap to buy a cell phone -- that "frugality" has obviously bitten me in the ass. (Actually, I would've had an AT&T smartphone a few days ago if they allowed me to have a different shipping and billing address....)
[8]Around 1:45pm, I was alerted to BDK.BND being dumped. You can see
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1046806 for how much was withdrawn. The funds from the BTC account were withdrawn by dumping the few remaining securities I kept. No new securities were issued, but the attacker sold all securities in the account. At that time, it was obvious what happened. I emailed Nef somewhere between 1:45p and 2p, asking him to halt all withdrawals (withdrawals from GLBSE are not immediate). I assume he was still sleeping -- he's in the UK and works just about his entire day, so understandable. At least one other lender texted Nefario as an additional alert, but it was quickly too late, and the withdrawal was processed.
Currently, I am not aware of any losses outside of what I have already reported. I have moved all coins out of my possession in case the primary OS was compromised. Ideally, Nef will reverse the fraudulent transactions.
Current "hard" losses are 344.117BTC. "Soft" losses (currently non-reversed GLBSE transactions) could push total losses near or above 2kBTC, but I'm assuming Nef will reverse the unauthorized transactions. Either way, BDK is not at immediate risk of insolvency.