Topic: Bear Flag Consolidation - page 2. (Read 3937 times)

Please also be aware that we have seen a mountain of clear evidence that technical analysis of the sort practised by Arepo and others, while being valid for cerain markets, has proven time and time again to be ill-suited to Bitcoin.

Please pay attention to the green line on the chart below. It represents a normal, healthy continuation of the clear uptrend we have all been seeing over the past two weeks. There is fundamentally no good reason for Bitcoin to fall below this line.

Please remember this after consolidation has happened around this pattern. Do your own common sense analysis; don't rely on an expert without thinking for yourself first and foremost.

of course, by the time i wrote that up, we'd already broken into a larger, descending triangle on MtGox.

the scenarios outlined in the OP are still relevant, but the "breakout clock" has been reset: <155 minutes from 10:47 EST

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http://s10.postimg.org/3metuanqx/newtriangle.png

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--arepo

http://s30.postimg.org/cs0v68alt/bearflag.png

right now we're seeing a beautiful triangle consolidation pattern after the small slide, and the big question is... what's coming next? gox data shows a symmetrical triangle, and bitstamp is forming into a descending triangle.

well when's coming next is always an easier question to answer, so by some rough geometrical calculations (white rectangles) we can expect a breakout in less than 65 minutes of 10:20 EST.

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1-month 2-hour scale @ MTGOX


http://s21.postimg.org/btryd8693/triangle06jan.png

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unfortunately for the bull case, a moving support visible in both the Slow Stochastic Oscillator, and, to a lesser extent, the William's Oscillator shows a bull run that is running out of space. this moving support is quite robust in the Slow Stochastic with 5 - 6 points of contact!

what this means is that either the triangle will break downwards, ending the mid-term trend that started after the last capitulation, or we may break upwards and test the $1100 resistance again. however, the oscillator data suggests that we may not have the momentum to break through and would likely form a double top, thereby ending the uptrend as well.

in short:

scenario bear: break downwards, capitulation event or downtrend to no lower than $600.

scenario bull: break upwards, retest $1100, likely rebound. there is a possible cusp top scenario because of all you irrational bulls where we break through the $1100 resistance and retest the ATH, but this is not likely and we will almost definitely not see another ATH before a capitulation event.

--arepo

I work diligently in my analysis, and share it with you as I can. If you learn from me, help keep it free!
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