Topic: Bear post of the Day - page 5. (Read 8649 times)

That's in case of 50-50 split, but other split is the same, it is not about the valuation, it is about people now do not believe that this thing can not be inflated, and double spend is also possible through a hard fork, promises are broken

You're assuming that bitcoin and bitcoin-classic will be valued equally.

You could double spend them on each chain, just like BTC supply increased by 100%, so value will cut by half immediately

Even worse, central banks inflate money slowly, 10% per year is called hyperinflation. But in this case bitcoin is inflated by 100% overnight, then all the people's trust to this limited supply property (which is most important IMO) will vanish, it might worth nothing the day after

Everybody can use their prefork coins on each chain.

I usually only talk about positive things, but since this is a post of Bear, let's bring out some bearish facts

There is a possible hard fork in the near future, where user might be forced to switch blockchain. If you use original software, you will stay with original protocol, and if you use a new software published by btc foundation, you will use the new protocol. Both protocol do not accept the block on another chain, so coin generated on one chain become invalid in another chain (not sure if old coins will  be affected)

I don't really understand the necessity of such a hard fork, but anyway core developers said there are this this and this reason that we should/should not raise the transaction size limit, the debate has been going on for one year

The debate splited into two different political view regarding how BTC will perform in the future, I think this revealed a potential weakness in BTC: Currently there is no good decision making process established in btc community, if some developer with big influence decided to make a change in protocol, while some others do not agree, they might go ahead and make this fork, and we will get a split after the hard fork, so that some group of user stay with the original, and some other group goes with the new protocol, if that split is 50-50, that will almost immediately cut the BTC price by half. It is not about the technology itself, it is about people's trust of blockchain

I had a poll for this, have a mixed result without any majority:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/how-do-you-make-decisions-for-a-change-in-btc-protocal-140516

   ok NOW it will not go any higher 

 

translation: i think bitcoin is over priced right now and should be in the teens... But it will go up Up UP b4 the market crashes down down down!

I say no.
everyone can see what you see... bitcoin is over priced because the market went a bit nutty... No it will not go any higher... the market might go crazy from time to time, but MOST of the time it does want it does best, and that is to find the true value.

Hi ElectricMucus, long time no chat.


According to my tea leaves, there is a good chance the price will peak soon around $40 and drop to the August price range, perhaps in the teens. After climbing above $20 again, I think you are right, it will never drop below $20 again. Or so says the good oolong.

Bear disclosure: as of $27:90 o'clock today I own no bitcoins.

I offered my explanation why your concern is not a concern, it's not rhetoric, there's a market there, and no appropriate payment method exists to satisfy the need of this market, it's a fact, just a fact many people are not aware of.

I have said there are big bitcoin exchanges traded in CNY, and people could pay for their bitcoins with domestic payment system easily, either purchasing through the exchange or the online merchants. I could talk a little bit more about the supply side, for one thing in a populous developing nation there would be many citizens working overseas, and they would often have business/personal issues to deal with in their home country, which would require them to keep a cash reserve of local currency, selling bitcoins is one way to obtain such currency without going through the hurdle of forex exchange(there is actually one filippino guy offering such remittance service on this forum), For another, again in a populous developing nation, there would be a significant number of miners, who would be more than happy to sell their coins they mined locally, even at a slightly reduced rate, to avoid the trouble of withdrawing from Gox.

Don't worry this is nothing against you, it could have been (almost) anybody else here.
In detail you praised BTC as a tool to help people in the third world, and after I argued against it you brushed away my arguments and continued on with your rhetoric.

The reason I call it ignorance is the way Bitcoin is alleviated to some silver bulled using "magical thinking", it is supposed to solve problems it was never meant to be addressing and which it cannot addresses on a fundamental level.

You started this thread by saying you want to rebuff some unwarranted claims in this community, now instead of offering rebuttals to other people's stated reasons for belief in bitcoin's usefulness, you have decided to settle with surmising other people's ulterior motives, and called it all about greed and ignorance, very good for you. I guess there is nothing more I need to add.

I've struggled a little on whenever to bring that up here or create another thread about it, (which I might do some day nevertheless some day if the situation doesn't improve).

The issue of concern is what I call Bitcoinism. Many people in this community preach it and it is toxic.
It is basically greed, coupled with ignorance, group think and the inability to comprehend issues raised by people outside this little cult.

This has to do with the belief that Bitcoin is supposed to take over the world through recursive "early adoption". People are almost exclusively concerned with increasing publicity or "astroturfing" if you will.
The situation is supposed to improve by attracting more people which are expected to take care of the problems. While the only people this strategy attracts are the ones prone to the same thought process.

It is the main reason people make fun of us (read SA) and it doesn't look like it is gonna go away any time soon.
One good example was the Bitcoin stand at CES, while this could have been a great opportunity the main story was about BFL vs. Micon which none of the people outside understood.
Another one is this forum, you might not even want to look too far even in this thread there are plenty of examples of it. Oakpacific is probably the biggest offender ITT along with the people who followed after his lead.

I would be very very surprised if BTC/USD ratio gets to 20$ sharp and stays there. Other than that, no idea.

I would be very very surprised if BTC/USD ratio doesn't gets under 20$ ever...

yes i keep trying to tell them, "your stupid! just give me your money!"  but they don't listen... 

I would be very very surprised if BTC/USD ratio gets under 20$ ever !

As it should. This is hell of a scary thing going on with bitcoin. It does take guts to take in all the information, take bitcoin to the logical conclusions and accept that there's a lot to be afraid of. Two other options is to deny its viability or to be blind to the dark side and be a blue-eyed ideologic as most here.

I might not think it's all roses, but there's no point denying the potential of BTC and would be stupid not to hop along for the ride.