Bearish Bitcoin TA - Be careful everyone ...

Silberman

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Quote from: Baofeng on October 03, 2021, 06:53:57 PM

Quote from: Silberman on October 01, 2021, 11:22:34 AM

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on September 28, 2021, 06:57:05 PM

Quote from: Poker Player on September 17, 2021, 11:56:01 PM

Blah, blah, blah. Technical analysis is about probabilities, not certainties, and it fails constantly. Yesterday or the day before yesterday I saw an analysis saying that as we cross the golden cross, we are going to start going up to $200K or thereabouts. I look at technical analysis for entertainment, but as a long term investor it doesn't affect me. I know that Bitcoin in 5 and 10 years is going to be much higher than it is now, so what it does in the next month doesn't matter to me.

This is a subforum about Speculation where people are interested in short-term price, because they want to do some short term trading.

The fact that a simple short-term bearish opinion gets so heavily criticized here as some sort of apostasy against Bitcoin just means that this forum is not a good place for getting information about Bitcoin's price movements.

I will have to agree, you will see that my critique to the prediction has nothing to do with the prediction being bearish but about the method used to get it, in this case Elliott waves which at least to me seem completely unreliable when it comes to predicting what it will happen, however if someone uses more traditional methods and they come to the conclusions there are bearish conditions I accept it, after all we know that after a bull market a bear market follows, we just do not know when it will actually begin so at some point bearish predictions will come true and we need to be ready for them.

And luckily, we didn't hit the $30k'ish as the OP has pointed out (although this is just a possibility again). So we now have a new trend for October, and it looks like extremely bullish.

And those who short bitcoin got REKT recently as millions worth of dollars have been liquidated in matter of hours. So that's how unpredictable bitcoin is, but looking at long term or at least at the end of the this year, it looks bullish.

And I agree, I think that we are about to see the bull market that will define this market not only for us but for the rest of the population as well, the adoption we have had since the crash of 2017 has been great but I think that with the circumstances that are surrounding bitcoin right now bitcoin cannot do anything but to go up in value, and when it begins to do so it would be unstoppable and that is when all of those that still had doubts about bitcoin will understand that bitcoin is here to stay for a long time.

bitterguy28

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“FRX: Ferocious Alpha”

Quote from: WePiggy on September 17, 2021, 03:09:10 PM

If history repeats itself we could see a drop down to the thirties again.

On-chain news is positive, but TA charts look grim ... Time to tether?

did it happen? does the history really repeat itself? i doubt it is Grin

after 3 weeks look at the market , though still lower than the ATH yet the movement is still strong and effective.
and also the opportunity of hyping is always on the other side because investors are moving inside here and there.

but be careful for what you are wishing because this might go sideways lol.

Baofeng

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Quote from: Silberman on October 01, 2021, 11:22:34 AM

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on September 28, 2021, 06:57:05 PM

Quote from: Poker Player on September 17, 2021, 11:56:01 PM

Blah, blah, blah. Technical analysis is about probabilities, not certainties, and it fails constantly. Yesterday or the day before yesterday I saw an analysis saying that as we cross the golden cross, we are going to start going up to $200K or thereabouts. I look at technical analysis for entertainment, but as a long term investor it doesn't affect me. I know that Bitcoin in 5 and 10 years is going to be much higher than it is now, so what it does in the next month doesn't matter to me.

This is a subforum about Speculation where people are interested in short-term price, because they want to do some short term trading.

The fact that a simple short-term bearish opinion gets so heavily criticized here as some sort of apostasy against Bitcoin just means that this forum is not a good place for getting information about Bitcoin's price movements.

I will have to agree, you will see that my critique to the prediction has nothing to do with the prediction being bearish but about the method used to get it, in this case Elliott waves which at least to me seem completely unreliable when it comes to predicting what it will happen, however if someone uses more traditional methods and they come to the conclusions there are bearish conditions I accept it, after all we know that after a bull market a bear market follows, we just do not know when it will actually begin so at some point bearish predictions will come true and we need to be ready for them.

And luckily, we didn't hit the $30k'ish as the OP has pointed out (although this is just a possibility again). So we now have a new trend for October, and it looks like extremely bullish.

And those who short bitcoin got REKT recently as millions worth of dollars have been liquidated in matter of hours. So that's how unpredictable bitcoin is, but looking at long term or at least at the end of the this year, it looks bullish.

Silberman

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Activity: 2534

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on September 28, 2021, 06:57:05 PM

Quote from: Poker Player on September 17, 2021, 11:56:01 PM

Blah, blah, blah. Technical analysis is about probabilities, not certainties, and it fails constantly. Yesterday or the day before yesterday I saw an analysis saying that as we cross the golden cross, we are going to start going up to $200K or thereabouts. I look at technical analysis for entertainment, but as a long term investor it doesn't affect me. I know that Bitcoin in 5 and 10 years is going to be much higher than it is now, so what it does in the next month doesn't matter to me.

This is a subforum about Speculation where people are interested in short-term price, because they want to do some short term trading.

The fact that a simple short-term bearish opinion gets so heavily criticized here as some sort of apostasy against Bitcoin just means that this forum is not a good place for getting information about Bitcoin's price movements.

I will have to agree, you will see that my critique to the prediction has nothing to do with the prediction being bearish but about the method used to get it, in this case Elliott waves which at least to me seem completely unreliable when it comes to predicting what it will happen, however if someone uses more traditional methods and they come to the conclusions there are bearish conditions I accept it, after all we know that after a bull market a bear market follows, we just do not know when it will actually begin so at some point bearish predictions will come true and we need to be ready for them.

Yamifoud

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Be careful! That has always been happening...
To point out what will happen next is just an speculation, we can't sure of that and I don't even think about "history repeats itself". It is either the chart tells something it looks bearish in the coming days, well, that we have to prepare and in fact, we should have to that no matter what.
If I buy during this correction, probably I buy more when bearish come. It is haven't too worried about as it for sure the recovery happen after this dump. Keep your trust intact, that is simple.

kotajikikox

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Merit: 217

Quote from: WePiggy on September 17, 2021, 03:09:10 PM

If history repeats itself we could see a drop down to the thirties again.

On-chain news is positive, but TA charts look grim ... Time to tether?

You should Named the author of this TA so we can asses if it is reliable of a BS one though I really hard Buying TA nowadays because since then there are very few that brings me good result and that i profit from it.
But if ever that this is a sign of another Bearish market then let it be because i have closed my Eyes recently and deleted those market signals so i may stop checking the market and get ready for holding long term.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: Poker Player on September 17, 2021, 11:56:01 PM

Blah, blah, blah. Technical analysis is about probabilities, not certainties, and it fails constantly. Yesterday or the day before yesterday I saw an analysis saying that as we cross the golden cross, we are going to start going up to $200K or thereabouts. I look at technical analysis for entertainment, but as a long term investor it doesn't affect me. I know that Bitcoin in 5 and 10 years is going to be much higher than it is now, so what it does in the next month doesn't matter to me.

This is a subforum about Speculation where people are interested in short-term price, because they want to do some short term trading.

The fact that a simple short-term bearish opinion gets so heavily criticized here as some sort of apostasy against Bitcoin just means that this forum is not a good place for getting information about Bitcoin's price movements.

btc_angela

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Activity: 2660

Merit: 551

Quote from: WePiggy on September 25, 2021, 05:20:11 PM

Agreed that a pandemic is something that we have not witnessed in the bitcoin timeline which throws the TA slightly off course. However, there are always external factors at play and somehow bitcoin seems to follow the same pattern. Two cycles isn't much to go on, but we can kind of guess what the likely direction of bitcoin will be, even with 2 simply lines

Most agree that on a macro level, bitcoin will eventually rise. Easiest and safest option is to keep buying with DCA and just hodl, or store it in a DeFi product where you can earn interest

Yeah, why not keep buying and wait for the recovery, if ever you what to short (not really advisable), then it's good, but smart investors knows that it's better to hold for long term and keep on buying when the market price is on red.

Just a couple of days before the end of the month, another bad September, cycle repeating itself again. But if we go on that argument, then we will eventually recover and hit another all time high before the end of the year.

Silberman

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Quote from: adaseb on September 17, 2021, 04:20:31 PM

What is this? Elliot Waves? From most of the TA that I used in the past, Elliot Waves was the least reliable one. It looked good when trading in hindsight however you have no idea which wave you are currently in the present. You might react too early or too late and the trade won't work out.

I think BTC will trade sideways for most of Sept and in Oct/Nov I see it making a big move. It will either be up or down, I don't see it trading at near $50K for long. $50K is still a great price and if it doesn't move soon, alot of the people who bought in the $20-$30K area will take their 100% profits and sell and move on to something else.

I had always thought that Elliott waves are very good at describing what already happened and not very good at predicting what it will happen because you cannot really know how big the movement is going to be beforehand, so whenever I see an analysis like that and then I look at it six months later they are always wrong, however those that use that theory to try to predict the markets then just adjust the number of waves for their prediction and suddenly they are right again in their minds.

WePiggy

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“In Piggy, We Get Rich!”

Agreed that a pandemic is something that we have not witnessed in the bitcoin timeline which throws the TA slightly off course. However, there are always external factors at play and somehow bitcoin seems to follow the same pattern. Two cycles isn't much to go on, but we can kind of guess what the likely direction of bitcoin will be, even with 2 simply lines

Most agree that on a macro level, bitcoin will eventually rise. Easiest and safest option is to keep buying with DCA and just hodl, or store it in a DeFi product where you can earn interest

LUCKMCFLY

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I´m one of those who believes that sometimes the patterns repeat themselves if the circumstances are similar, the only thing is that now we are in a pandemic and this is one of the scenarios that had not occurred before, in terms of technical analysis it is variable, In the short term many things can happen and due to volatility and anything can happen, this article shows the following:

Quote

Despite the bounceback, Bitcoin (BTC) has not yet come back to the bullish zone as the chief crypto has not fixed above the resistance zone of $48,500.

Source: https://u.today/btc-ada-bnb-and-dot-price-analysis-for-september-25

$ 47k or $ 48k is undoubtedly a great possible option that can happen, however many are also waiting for the bears to do their part and lower the price more so that they buy in the dip, really the market at this time anything can happen.

WePiggy

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“In Piggy, We Get Rich!”

Hopefully most of you tethered in time, yes i done most of it prior to the crash but TA is just guidelines and can't be relied upon all of the time. There are times to be 50/50 and at other times mostly tethered or mostly in assets. TA just helps us know when to be more cautious, along with crypto & market news around the world. Lots of big events recently so best to keep an eye on things like bearish Evergrande FUD and a future bullish ETF

el kaka22

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The funny thing about charts is that we had a person with golden cross approaching TA at the same days as this was posted. So, it depends on what you are looking for, sometimes some people look at a chart on the same day and see a big drop, sometimes another person looks at the same chart and see a big increase. It doesn't mean one of them is good and the other is bad at reading, it just means that market agreed with one of them and disagreed with the other.

This doesn't make anyone any worse, it is totally natural to see a good chart and have a bad market afterwards or vice versa. People do not trade based on charts most of the time, whales do not manipulate depending on charts neither, it just happens and that's it. We just need to get used to this by this time and I understand that it takes time for newbies to get used to it but you have to, charts do not dictate what happens.

rahmatrf331

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https://i.imgur.com/3fXQC4m.png

it looks like bitcoin will experience a sharp second market price correction after it happened last april, now the market price is starting to bearish again. The current price correction doesn't put too much pressure on investors, because the market was only affected by some negative rumors and was rejected by some other rumors that bitcoin will have another bullrun in the near future.

dragonvslinux

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Not a bad call. For hodlers, a move from $47K to $38K isn't much of a selling opportunity. For traders, especially those wanting to short the market, a good call none the less.

Especially now the 50 Week MA has moved upto $38K levels, this being where support is found isn't that far off accurate either imo.

cabron

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Quote from: adaseb on September 20, 2021, 10:02:53 PM

Looks like the OP was correct somewhat. We almost touched $40K. Pretty nasty selling especially at the China open. What we are seeing now is the Evergrande market crash which is affecting all global markets and Bitcoin is following. The reason why it’s significant is because people are expecting another housing crisis crash like in 2008.

People are comparing Evergrande to Lehman brothers. They think that once they go, there will be a domino affect and others will follow and we will have a nasty bear market. However this is only a guess. I don’t think it will go that far. We will see what the developing news is this week.

That's what it seems. He must have dumped his coins before it even happened. Well good for him. It does look like everyone who has moneyto invest is waiting for it to happen though.

The ones we follow on youtube are saying it's going to be $100K this year, well it's not happening. In 3 months I'm not sure if this will even lift back to $50k again. Its breaking my heart Cheesy

Coin_trader

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Quote from: WePiggy on September 17, 2021, 03:09:10 PM

If history repeats itself we could see a drop down to the thirties again.

On-chain news is positive, but TA charts look grim ... Time to tether?

A good observation on the Eliot Wave, It might really happened if BTC close below 40K this week. One thing I notice on your 1st Elliott Wave Cycle, The position of 1 is not right it should be place after an end of a cycle which definitely not on your screen shot since it looks like the price before the point 1 is less than your point 1 value.

adaseb

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Looks like the OP was correct somewhat. We almost touched $40K. Pretty nasty selling especially at the China open. What we are seeing now is the Evergrande market crash which is affecting all global markets and Bitcoin is following. The reason why it’s significant is because people are expecting another housing crisis crash like in 2008.

People are comparing Evergrande to Lehman brothers. They think that once they go, there will be a domino affect and others will follow and we will have a nasty bear market. However this is only a guess. I don’t think it will go that far. We will see what the developing news is this week.

Fundamentals Of

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Quote from: WePiggy on September 17, 2021, 03:09:10 PM

On-chain news is positive, but TA charts look grim ... Time to tether?

I am interested to know, OP, if you indeed made the right decision based on your analysis. There was indeed a good deal of price fall, not less than $5,000, since the day you opened this thread. I am curious if you indeed tethered because you are seeing something grim on the chart, or you continued to hodl because you might be wrong in your prediction in the end.

It seems the price has already reached the bottom and is now beginning to recover. This must be the time to do the buying.

sana54210

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Quote from: bitgolden on September 20, 2021, 09:21:22 AM

Even right now bitcoin bulls are not doing good, I am not expecting prices to breach below $43k levels which must be a stronger short term resistance before $40.5k levels. I am seeing most prime media is talking about bitcoin and one government already adopted bitcoin still we are not moving up as expected for some reasons. Bitcoin is always known for surprising us at unexpected times hence we may see bulls into actions at any time.

Like many people stated across this forum, I guess we may not see anything below $40k levels hereafter forever. It is like this year's final ATH would be around $180k to $190k levels and then bitcoin may fall back up to 70% which might be above $60k levels.

Bitcoin is once again under 45k. However, I agree that this is another bargain discount for all of us who know what happens to bitcoin. We all know that it drops but then it recovers and that is why there is nothing to worry about, we are doing fine and we will keep doing fine in the long run. There is no doubt in my mind that we will be 50k+ soon, it may take a while and I could be wrong but the only thing I am wrong about will be the date, not the price.

This is why I believe that we are going to be fine, it is going to be 50k+ and buying from here would mean that we could make nearly 20% profit when that hits. If it is quick then making 20% that quickly is a great deal, but if it takes a whole year that is still 20% in dollar gain for a whole year and not bad in financial world if you ask me. This is why I am feeling fine about the future.

Topic: Bearish Bitcoin TA - Be careful everyone ... (Read 386 times)