Pages:
Author

Topic: Bearish Bitfinex Sentiment Index almost 1:2 - page 3. (Read 5616 times)

sr. member
Activity: 317
Merit: 252
December 23, 2013, 08:03:56 AM
#26
The exact numbers are hidden in the HTML code. As of now, it's

Code:







Or 64.3 : 37.7 = 1.8 bearish... whatever that means.

I do wish they posted historical numbers. Someone could just record the historical numbers as a public service. Anyone?
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
December 23, 2013, 07:00:29 AM
#25
Yeah it is kind of weird that this stat is occurring.  But it does say that total sum of all active loans is:

Total sum of active loans
USD    0.7211%    0.1605%    11,191,123.69 USD

That is quite a lot compared to only 4000 bitcoins loaned out.

BTW- see my signature for the only and best fee rebate program with bitfinex.
legendary
Activity: 2408
Merit: 1009
Legen -wait for it- dary
December 23, 2013, 06:53:18 AM
#24
During the last rally, it was as high as 5:1 Bullish. It has held very bullish for many months and this is the first time in a long time it actually says bearish. It gets as low as 1:1 from time to time, but still says bullish.

It is calculated by the number of open positions in that direction.

No, it is not a contrarian indicator because it's not that uneven yet.
legendary
Activity: 1064
Merit: 1000
December 23, 2013, 06:40:42 AM
#23
How long has it been like that?

It's been bearish for several days. If you view source, you can see the exact percentages.... it's getting more bearish as time goes on.
legendary
Activity: 2184
Merit: 1056
Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com
December 23, 2013, 04:17:50 AM
#22
Isn't that index just an indication of how many people get burned when they realize it's a bad idea to short bitcoins?
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
December 23, 2013, 04:12:18 AM
#21
Has anybody seen that.

I haven't seen that seen I started trading in bitfinex?
Not even the day it hit 400 dollars per bitcoin. I actually made a small trade at 388$(buy).
Is it time to dump hard?

Yes, I see this too but it is in direct contrast to the average loan rates, which have  gone to the moon. A month ago they were at an average of 50-70%. Now they are at an average of 250-500% which is extremely bullish.

There are more shorts now, but not nearly as many as leveraged longs.
In bitfinex you can short with dollars and leverage up to 4:1.
So you can take a loan and short.
Am I wrong?

Well, I could be wrong and please someone correct me if I am, but I thought if you borrowed fiat you had to leverage long and to leverage short you had to borrow BTC - own them to sell them first, then buy them back later.

Is this not correct?  Otherwise if you could go long or short with fiat or BTC, then BTC interest rates wouldn't be 1/5 of the fiat loan interest rates.

Which is why it doesn't make sense with $10 million dollars of fiat loans and only 13k BTC on loan, why the sentiment could be so bearish. Those stats seem to suggest the exact opposite.

If you have the bitcoin already, you can take a "short position" and it will not borrow anything unless you sell more than your btc margin.  The indicator being bearish with only 3.6k (I'm not sure where you are getting 13k, but I see 3.6) btc lent out indicates that much of the bearish sentiment is coming from btc holders rather than people who keep their margin in USD and would need to borrow.

I misremembered the 3.6K.  Ok, thanks for that explanation.

Wow there must be a lot of BTC shorts because there are 10 million fiat leveraged longs.

Crazy times.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
December 23, 2013, 04:09:16 AM
#20
Has anybody seen that.

I haven't seen that seen I started trading in bitfinex?
Not even the day it hit 400 dollars per bitcoin. I actually made a small trade at 388$(buy).
Is it time to dump hard?

Yes, I see this too but it is in direct contrast to the average loan rates, which have  gone to the moon. A month ago they were at an average of 50-70%. Now they are at an average of 250-500% which is extremely bullish.

There are more shorts now, but not nearly as many as leveraged longs.
In bitfinex you can short with dollars and leverage up to 4:1.
So you can take a loan and short.
Am I wrong?

Well, I could be wrong and please someone correct me if I am, but I thought if you borrowed fiat you had to leverage long and to leverage short you had to borrow BTC - own them to sell them first, then buy them back later.

Is this not correct?  Otherwise if you could go long or short with fiat or BTC, then BTC interest rates wouldn't be 1/5 of the fiat loan interest rates.

Which is why it doesn't make sense with $10 million dollars of fiat loans and only 13k BTC on loan, why the sentiment could be so bearish. Those stats seem to suggest the exact opposite.

If you have the bitcoin already, you can take a "short position" and it will not borrow anything unless you sell more than your btc margin.  The indicator being bearish with only 3.6k (I'm not sure where you are getting 13k, but I see 3.6) btc lent out indicates that much of the bearish sentiment is coming from btc holders rather than people who keep their margin in USD and would need to borrow.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
December 23, 2013, 04:05:51 AM
#19
Has anybody seen that.

I haven't seen that seen I started trading in bitfinex?
Not even the day it hit 400 dollars per bitcoin. I actually made a small trade at 388$(buy).
Is it time to dump hard?

Yes, I see this too but it is in direct contrast to the average loan rates, which have  gone to the moon. A month ago they were at an average of 50-70%. Now they are at an average of 250-500% which is extremely bullish.

There are more shorts now, but not nearly as many as leveraged longs.
In bitfinex you can short with dollars and leverage up to 4:1.
So you can take a loan and short.
Am I wrong?

Well, I could be wrong and please someone correct me if I am, but I thought if you borrowed fiat you had to leverage long and to leverage short you had to borrow BTC - own them to sell them first, then buy them back later.

Is this not correct?  Otherwise if you could go long or short with fiat or BTC, then BTC interest rates wouldn't be 1/5 of the fiat loan interest rates.

Which is why it doesn't make sense with $10 million dollars of fiat loans and only 13k BTC on loan, why the sentiment could be so bearish. Those stats seem to suggest the exact opposite.
full member
Activity: 227
Merit: 100
December 23, 2013, 03:10:32 AM
#18
Has anybody seen that.

I haven't seen that seen I started trading in bitfinex?
Not even the day it hit 400 dollars per bitcoin. I actually made a small trade at 388$(buy).
Is it time to dump hard?

Yes, I see this too but it is in direct contrast to the average loan rates, which have  gone to the moon. A month ago they were at an average of 50-70%. Now they are at an average of 250-500% which is extremely bullish.

There are more shorts now, but not nearly as many as leveraged longs.
In bitfinex you can short with dollars and leverage up to 4:1.
So you can take a loan and short.
Am I wrong?
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
December 23, 2013, 02:46:59 AM
#16
How is this indicator calculated?
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1070
December 23, 2013, 02:43:03 AM
#15
Has anybody seen that.

I haven't seen that seen I started trading in bitfinex?
Not even the day it hit 400 dollars per bitcoin. I actually made a small trade at 388$(buy).
Is it time to dump hard?

Yes, I see this too but it is in direct contrast to the average loan rates, which have  gone to the moon. A month ago they were at an average of 50-70%. Now they are at an average of 250-500% which is extremely bullish.

There are more shorts now, but not nearly as many as leveraged longs.
zby
legendary
Activity: 1594
Merit: 1001
December 23, 2013, 02:29:57 AM
#14
I also watch how the shorts on bitfinex grow - all this is bullish - but maybe not immediately.
legendary
Activity: 1040
Merit: 1001
December 23, 2013, 02:25:27 AM
#13
ALMOST 1:2
Look at the bars.
The green bar is ALMOST half the size of the red bar.

I believe you. But I'm wondering why the words and letter say 1:1.

If I understand what you've said, traders at bitfinex are more bearish than you've seen. That, my friend, is bullish.
full member
Activity: 227
Merit: 100
December 23, 2013, 02:25:04 AM
#12
I wasn't trading at bitfinex by then.
I registered in august 2013.
newbie
Activity: 18
Merit: 0
December 23, 2013, 02:23:44 AM
#11
Everybody can open an account at bifinex and watch this index without trading.
It's very interesting.
I just saying I have never seen this index that bearish.



https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitfinex-sentiment-index-vote-with-your-wallet-not-with-a-click-129326
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
December 23, 2013, 02:21:40 AM
#10
Everybody can open an account at bifinex and watch this index without trading.
It's very interesting.
I just saying I have never seen this index that bearish.




How closely have you monitored it?

Has it been accurate?
member
Activity: 62
Merit: 10
December 23, 2013, 02:20:41 AM
#9
Almost 1:2
Since august I have seen even 3:1 which is very bullish.
This means that the green bar was 3 times bigger that the red bar.

So why does the pic say 1:1?

Probably because it rounds down to the nearest number. So it's actually something like 1.90:1 bearish
full member
Activity: 227
Merit: 100
December 23, 2013, 02:20:33 AM
#8
ALMOST 1:2
Look at the bars.
The green bar is ALMOST half the size of the red bar.
legendary
Activity: 1040
Merit: 1001
December 23, 2013, 02:17:09 AM
#7
Almost 1:2
Since august I have seen even 3:1 which is very bullish.
This means that the green bar was 3 times bigger that the red bar.

So why does the pic say 1:1?
Pages:
Jump to: