Bears thread - unleash the bear in you in this thread - page 3.

deisik

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Quote from: windjc on November 14, 2013, 03:37:27 AM

All this talk of bitcoin being banned in the U.S.

Newsflash, BTC is not getting banned in the U.S. That is about as obvious as the noses on our faces. We do not live in a totalitarian system, despite what Libertarians will tell you. We still have a free, if unequal, democracy.

I'm not saying BTC is getting banned in the US. Actually, I said if it was banned (read, would be banned)... Grin

deisik

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Quote from: User705 on November 13, 2013, 08:21:52 PM

Quote from: Tirapon on November 13, 2013, 08:20:14 PM

I'm not saying they should drop their national currencies. Just that they don't move to ban the use of crypto currencies. They just take a hands off approach and allow it to develop and run its course.

Plenty of countries have already done that. The most friendly one being Germany I believe that declared Bitcoin private money.

Any substantial displacement of some local currency with Bitcoin would mean proportional devaluation of this currency. And you still insist that governments will be nodding approvingly or just stay impartial? While Bitcoin remains some analogy of gold, it makes no sense to ban it. If it enters circulation in any considerable amount (which is very unlikely due to Bitcoin's nature) i.e. becomes a currency, there will be

Crazy

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Quote from: windjc on November 14, 2013, 03:37:27 AM

We do not live in a totalitarian system, despite what Libertarians will tell you. We still have a free, if unequal, democracy.

Heh, what's it smell like?

windjc

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Quote from: deisik on November 14, 2013, 03:34:42 AM

Quote from: Tirapon on November 13, 2013, 08:20:14 PM

Quote from: deisik on November 12, 2013, 05:36:48 AM

Quote from: Tirapon on November 11, 2013, 07:09:55 PM

The China/America thing was only to illustrate a point. You also have Europe, Russia, Africa, South America to consider - Basically all it takes is one country to say, 'fuck it, we love Bitcoin - do as you please' and they become the hub of all Bitcoin activity overnight. Then the fact that Bitcoin will still be functional in every other country means that there will probably still be people in those countries using it regardless of legality (as is observed with the prohibition of cannabis, for example)

What you say in pratice would mean that all those countries should drop their national currencies (or at least put Bitcoin on a par with them which would mean they don't value their own currency). How come?

I'm not saying they should drop their national currencies. Just that they don't move to ban the use of crypto currencies. They just take a hands off approach and allow it to develop and run its course.

I got your point... Cool

If it is banned in the USA, this ban will have devastating repercussions throughout the world. This in effect would mean that you won't be able to legally buy Bitcoin for dollars, with all ensuing consequences thereof

All this talk of bitcoin being banned in the U.S.

Newsflash, BTC is not getting banned in the U.S. That is about as obvious as the noses on our faces. We do not live in a totalitarian system, despite what Libertarians will tell you. We still have a free, if unequal, democracy.

deisik

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Quote from: Tirapon on November 13, 2013, 08:20:14 PM

Quote from: deisik on November 12, 2013, 05:36:48 AM

Quote from: Tirapon on November 11, 2013, 07:09:55 PM

The China/America thing was only to illustrate a point. You also have Europe, Russia, Africa, South America to consider - Basically all it takes is one country to say, 'fuck it, we love Bitcoin - do as you please' and they become the hub of all Bitcoin activity overnight. Then the fact that Bitcoin will still be functional in every other country means that there will probably still be people in those countries using it regardless of legality (as is observed with the prohibition of cannabis, for example)

What you say in pratice would mean that all those countries should drop their national currencies (or at least put Bitcoin on a par with them which would mean they don't value their own currency). How come?

I'm not saying they should drop their national currencies. Just that they don't move to ban the use of crypto currencies. They just take a hands off approach and allow it to develop and run its course.

I got your point... Cool

If it is banned in the USA, the ban will have devastating repercussions throughout the world. This in effect would mean that you won't be able to legally buy Bitcoin for dollars (even if you are buying outside the United States), with all ensuing consequences thereof

mrjeff

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Quote from: windjc on November 13, 2013, 09:20:34 PM

Quote from: jasonjm on November 13, 2013, 09:12:57 PM

I gotta admit I am glued to the bitcoin ticker, because this crash when it comes is going to be EPIC

in fact so big that i might be too scared for the first time to buy back in

You are being ridiculous.

You do realize that in April the rise went from 30 to 266? An 886% rise. When it fell, it did so on the day that the ONLY exchange got ddos? But it fell and it fell hard.

This rise started at $200. It's up about 125%. We have several exchanges. We have millions of dollars being put into the exchanges from SecondMarket that can't be taken out.

This is really understated. The bitcoin community was unable to rely on the largest exchange and this lack of confidence in that platform really made it difficult to support BTC fully at that time. Now we have multiple and mostly reliable exchanges. On top of this, more and more businesses are starting to accept BTC AND there is money being spent building an infrastructure and platforms that makes it easier than ever to interact with BTC.

jasonjm

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Quote from: BitPirate on November 13, 2013, 10:41:30 PM

What do you all mean "based on the math"? Just because the last bubble rose 800+% doesn't mean this one will! At all. In any shape or form. It could grow much bigger, or pop immediately. The only "math" that matters is buying and selling pressure. The latter is often off the books until it's too late. OTOH there is plenty of bullish sentiment each time we exit a triangle in the right direction.

You sound like gamblers pretending to see patterns in randomness. This has been going on since the last crash with people predicting based on past patterns. Why haven't people figured out yet that this doesn't work?

maybe you should have read the post more carefully

last time i called a top at $159, and it went to $260

therefore BASED ON THE MATH I was 63% early..... you see there really is math involved

therefore assuming by some random luck syndrome - which would be purely luck, BASED ON THE MATH I started calling a top at $350, which should therefore end at $570

of course no one (myself included) takes this seriously, it was posted in jest by the previous author and myself.

windjc

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Quote from: MAbtc on November 13, 2013, 10:58:34 PM

Quote from: BitPirate on November 13, 2013, 10:41:30 PM

What do you all mean "based on the math"? Just because the last bubble rose 800+% doesn't mean this one will! At all. In any shape or form. It could grow much bigger, or pop immediately. The only "math" that matters is buying and selling pressure. The latter is often off the books until it's too late. OTOH there is plenty of bullish sentiment each time we exit a triangle in the right direction.

You sound like gamblers pretending to see patterns in randomness. This has been going on since the last crash with people predicting based on past patterns. Why haven't people figured out yet that this doesn't work?

Seconded. I don't see historic evidence that the magnitude of this run-up can be compared to previous rises/corrections. Or, thus, that the magnitude of the April rise has any bearing on current sentiment.

I have never suggested this run up will be more or less than the previous.

I do believe however that the significance of the fall is based on the height and verticality of the rise.

If we only go as high as say $480, then the fall will not be seen as a crash. If we go from here to $800+, the fall will probably be called another crash.

MAbtc

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Quote from: BitPirate on November 13, 2013, 10:41:30 PM

What do you all mean "based on the math"? Just because the last bubble rose 800+% doesn't mean this one will! At all. In any shape or form. It could grow much bigger, or pop immediately. The only "math" that matters is buying and selling pressure. The latter is often off the books until it's too late. OTOH there is plenty of bullish sentiment each time we exit a triangle in the right direction.

You sound like gamblers pretending to see patterns in randomness. This has been going on since the last crash with people predicting based on past patterns. Why haven't people figured out yet that this doesn't work?

Seconded. I don't see historic evidence that the magnitude of this run-up can be compared to previous rises/corrections. Or, thus, that the magnitude of the April rise has any bearing on current sentiment.

BitPirate

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What do you all mean "based on the math"? Just because the last bubble rose 800+% doesn't mean this one will! At all. In any shape or form. It could grow much bigger, or pop immediately. The only "math" that matters is buying and selling pressure. The latter is often off the books until it's too late. OTOH there is plenty of bullish sentiment each time we exit a triangle in the right direction.

You sound like gamblers pretending to see patterns in randomness. This has been going on since the last crash with people predicting based on past patterns. Why haven't people figured out yet that this doesn't work?

jasonjm

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Quote from: windjc on November 13, 2013, 09:40:58 PM

Quote from: Marbit on November 13, 2013, 09:29:02 PM

Quote from: windjc on November 13, 2013, 09:20:34 PM

Quote from: jasonjm on November 13, 2013, 09:12:57 PM

I gotta admit I am glued to the bitcoin ticker, because this crash when it comes is going to be EPIC

in fact so big that i might be too scared for the first time to buy back in

You are being ridiculous.

You do realize that in April the rise went from 30 to 266? An 886% rise. When it fell, it did so on the day that the ONLY exchange got ddos? But it fell and it fell hard.

This rise started at $200. It's up about 125%. We have several exchanges. We have millions of dollars being put into the exchanges from SecondMarket that can't be taken out.

Are we going to correct? Yes. Probably a few times before $500? Yes.

Are we going back to $70? HAHA. Hell no.

Maybe we fall from $500 to $260. That's worst case scenario. If that scares someone off, so be it. You are just punchy because you made some extra money (what 100k?) on this rise. Well, most of us have made money too, including myself. A little more than you, in fact.

But your "EPIC" crash scenarios are ridiculous. Unless we run from here to over $800- $1000, there will be no epic crash. Just a sizeable correction. Rinse and repeat.

why do you say this? i think this wave may have started around $200. this rise? that's like saying the april move started at $140.

Let's call it $120. 886% would put us at $1063 before the next "crash".

Or we can see when Jason sold last time. He sold at $150. The market rose another 56% after he sold.

So, now Jason sold at $445. Based on historical analysis we can predict the market at approx $800 before the next "crash."

i thought that exact same thing funnily enough, I usually exit stuff too early, but when you have so much gain I don't mind - its not possible to call exact tops without a lot of luck.

but based on the math I started selling at more like $350 and only finished selling at around $445

theonewhowaskazu

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Quote from: vpitcher07 on November 13, 2013, 09:51:29 PM

Quote from: windjc on November 13, 2013, 09:46:22 PM

Quote from: vpitcher07 on November 13, 2013, 09:45:23 PM

I'm bearish when it comes to buying right now. This price rise is insane and I just can't see it staying where it is right now. When we have a correction (which I'm pretty confident we will) that will be the time to buy. And by correction I don't mean down to $50 a coin. I'd say the lowest would be $260 and that's really really pushing it. This is assuming nothing major happens when it comes to laws etc... Then I'd say full blown flash crash down to $50 but a quick rise because every bull and their mother will buy.

We just had a correction down to 265 a few days ago. Are doing major corrections every couple of days now?

Would you really call that a correction? I'm talking about a stable price correction. That's more of just a mini flash crash and a bear trap at that.

There is going to be no stable price correction until a significant number of collateralized debts are denominated in BTC, which means there has to be a significant number of people who will want BTC, not to invest in it, but to spend it. Which is going to take a while, and will likely happen when BTC is much higher anyway.

Everything else will either be a "crash" or a "bear trap" or a "bubble" or a "consolidation", because everybody knows that within the month BTC is either going to rally by 20% at a minimum, or crash by that same amount at a minimum.

vpitcher07

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Quote from: windjc on November 13, 2013, 09:46:22 PM

Quote from: vpitcher07 on November 13, 2013, 09:45:23 PM

I'm bearish when it comes to buying right now. This price rise is insane and I just can't see it staying where it is right now. When we have a correction (which I'm pretty confident we will) that will be the time to buy. And by correction I don't mean down to $50 a coin. I'd say the lowest would be $260 and that's really really pushing it. This is assuming nothing major happens when it comes to laws etc... Then I'd say full blown flash crash down to $50 but a quick rise because every bull and their mother will buy.

We just had a correction down to 265 a few days ago. Are doing major corrections every couple of days now?

Would you really call that a correction? I'm talking about a stable price correction. That's more of just a mini flash crash and a bear trap at that.

windjc

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Quote from: vpitcher07 on November 13, 2013, 09:45:23 PM

I'm bearish when it comes to buying right now. This price rise is insane and I just can't see it staying where it is right now. When we have a correction (which I'm pretty confident we will) that will be the time to buy. And by correction I don't mean down to $50 a coin. I'd say the lowest would be $260 and that's really really pushing it. This is assuming nothing major happens when it comes to laws etc... Then I'd say full blown flash crash down to $50 but a quick rise because every bull and their mother will buy.

We just had a correction down to 265 a few days ago. Are doing major corrections every couple of days now?

vpitcher07

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I'm bearish when it comes to buying right now. This price rise is insane and I just can't see it staying where it is right now. When we have a correction (which I'm pretty confident we will) that will be the time to buy. And by correction I don't mean down to $50 a coin. I'd say the lowest would be $260 and that's really really pushing it. This is assuming nothing major happens when it comes to laws etc... Then I'd say full blown flash crash down to $50 but a quick rise because every bull and their mother will buy.

windjc

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Quote from: Marbit on November 13, 2013, 09:29:02 PM

Quote from: windjc on November 13, 2013, 09:20:34 PM

Quote from: jasonjm on November 13, 2013, 09:12:57 PM

I gotta admit I am glued to the bitcoin ticker, because this crash when it comes is going to be EPIC

in fact so big that i might be too scared for the first time to buy back in

You are being ridiculous.

You do realize that in April the rise went from 30 to 266? An 886% rise. When it fell, it did so on the day that the ONLY exchange got ddos? But it fell and it fell hard.

This rise started at $200. It's up about 125%. We have several exchanges. We have millions of dollars being put into the exchanges from SecondMarket that can't be taken out.

Are we going to correct? Yes. Probably a few times before $500? Yes.

Are we going back to $70? HAHA. Hell no.

Maybe we fall from $500 to $260. That's worst case scenario. If that scares someone off, so be it. You are just punchy because you made some extra money (what 100k?) on this rise. Well, most of us have made money too, including myself. A little more than you, in fact.

But your "EPIC" crash scenarios are ridiculous. Unless we run from here to over $800- $1000, there will be no epic crash. Just a sizeable correction. Rinse and repeat.

why do you say this? i think this wave may have started around $200. this rise? that's like saying the april move started at $140.

Let's call it $120. 886% would put us at $1063 before the next "crash".

Or we can see when Jason sold last time. He sold at $150. The market rose another 56% after he sold.

So, now Jason sold at $445. Based on historical analysis we can predict the market at approx $800 before the next "crash."

jasonjm

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bitcoin to the moon?

Arise chikkun?

moar?

BTFD?

windjc

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Quote from: jasonjm on November 13, 2013, 09:32:46 PM

Quote from: windjc on November 13, 2013, 09:20:34 PM

Quote from: jasonjm on November 13, 2013, 09:12:57 PM

I gotta admit I am glued to the bitcoin ticker, because this crash when it comes is going to be EPIC

in fact so big that i might be too scared for the first time to buy back in

You are being ridiculous.

You do realize that in April the rise went from 30 to 266? An 886% rise. When it fell, it did so on the day that the ONLY exchange got ddos? But it fell and it fell hard.

This rise started at $200. It's up about 125%. We have several exchanges. We have millions of dollars being put into the exchanges from SecondMarket that can't be taken out.

Are we going to correct? Yes. Probably a few times before $500? Yes.

Are we going back to $70? HAHA. Hell no.

Maybe we fall from $500 to $260. That's worst case scenario. If that scares someone off, so be it. You are just punchy because you made some extra money (what 100k?) on this rise. Well, most of us have made money too, including myself. A little more than you, in fact.

But your "EPIC" crash scenarios are ridiculous. Unless we run from here to over $800- $1000, there will be no epic crash. Just a sizeable correction. Rinse and repeat.

have you actually SOLD your bitcoins? because until you do you have made exactly $0

Thanks for the advice. Yes I have sold some. Still have some.

Here is some other useful advice, don't know if you have heard these or not:

There is no "I" in team.
Better safe than sorry.
Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

I'm sure you can help me come up with some others.

jasonjm

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Quote from: windjc on November 13, 2013, 09:20:34 PM

Quote from: jasonjm on November 13, 2013, 09:12:57 PM

I gotta admit I am glued to the bitcoin ticker, because this crash when it comes is going to be EPIC

in fact so big that i might be too scared for the first time to buy back in

You are being ridiculous.

You do realize that in April the rise went from 30 to 266? An 886% rise. When it fell, it did so on the day that the ONLY exchange got ddos? But it fell and it fell hard.

This rise started at $200. It's up about 125%. We have several exchanges. We have millions of dollars being put into the exchanges from SecondMarket that can't be taken out.

Are we going to correct? Yes. Probably a few times before $500? Yes.

Are we going back to $70? HAHA. Hell no.

Maybe we fall from $500 to $260. That's worst case scenario. If that scares someone off, so be it. You are just punchy because you made some extra money (what 100k?) on this rise. Well, most of us have made money too, including myself. A little more than you, in fact.

But your "EPIC" crash scenarios are ridiculous. Unless we run from here to over $800- $1000, there will be no epic crash. Just a sizeable correction. Rinse and repeat.

have you actually SOLD your bitcoins? because until you do you have made exactly $0

Marbit

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Quote from: windjc on November 13, 2013, 09:20:34 PM

Quote from: jasonjm on November 13, 2013, 09:12:57 PM

I gotta admit I am glued to the bitcoin ticker, because this crash when it comes is going to be EPIC

in fact so big that i might be too scared for the first time to buy back in

You are being ridiculous.

You do realize that in April the rise went from 30 to 266? An 886% rise. When it fell, it did so on the day that the ONLY exchange got ddos? But it fell and it fell hard.

This rise started at $200. It's up about 125%. We have several exchanges. We have millions of dollars being put into the exchanges from SecondMarket that can't be taken out.

Are we going to correct? Yes. Probably a few times before $500? Yes.

Are we going back to $70? HAHA. Hell no.

Maybe we fall from $500 to $260. That's worst case scenario. If that scares someone off, so be it. You are just punchy because you made some extra money (what 100k?) on this rise. Well, most of us have made money too, including myself. A little more than you, in fact.

But your "EPIC" crash scenarios are ridiculous. Unless we run from here to over $800- $1000, there will be no epic crash. Just a sizeable correction. Rinse and repeat.

why do you say this? i think this wave may have started around $200. this rise? that's like saying the april move started at $140.

Topic: Bears thread - unleash the bear in you in this thread - page 3. (Read 7617 times)