Best metric for evaluating Bitcoin adoption rate over time

deisik

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Quote from: yayayo on November 22, 2016, 07:45:42 PM

While I can agree that the number of Bitcoin transactions is one of the better metrics to measure bitcoin adoption over time, I must point out several shortcomings:

1. A lot of Bitcoin activity is happening off-chain. Sadly, I would estimate that the number of users of wallet services increases faster than the number of real Bitcoin standalone wallet users

But this is sort of inevitable. First adopters, and those who came right after them, were quite tech-savvy, to say the least, so they had not problem to set up desktop wallets. And some of them started those wallet services (web wallets if I got you right). Right now, more and more people get attracted to Bitcoin who simply can't properly set up their computers (I mean make them safe from viruses, trojans, and similar things), let alone setting up a standalone wallet...

And web wallets come in very handy here

Quote from: yayayo on November 22, 2016, 07:45:42 PM

2. Relatively few actors are sending around a lot of transactions

As I got it, the transactions from the top 100 addresses have been excluded from consideration, and I agree in advance that it cuts both ways

Quote from: yayayo on November 22, 2016, 07:45:42 PM

3. With increasing transaction fees, low value transactions are discouraged. On-chain transaction handling by exchanges and mining pools is being optimized, resulting in a smaller number of total transactions

As I already said, it is hard to find a good metric to gauge Bitcoin adoption since Bitcoin adoption itself is not clearly understood and defined in the first place. Ask two people about what they think Bitcoin adoption means exactly, and you may get very different answers. Obviously, Bitcoin adoption by merchants and vendors means one thing, while by gamblers and traders quite another

This doesn't mean, though, that we should not at least try to come to a common denominator here

DimensionZ

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Quote from: deisik on November 22, 2016, 12:27:36 PM

Quote from: DimensionZ on November 22, 2016, 11:12:05 AM

I am not sure if this is such a good idea to be honest. Using the amount of Bitcoin transactions processed daily to gauge the adoption rate might be misleading because it's very easy to spam the Blockchain with fake TX. How can we distinguish between the real TX and the bot spammed fake TX? Increasing the amount of daily TX doesn't always translate to more unique users

Fake transactions usually don't have fees set, right? If so, they can be easily found and discarded. On the other hand, if they have fees, then are they really fake?

Quote from: panju1 on November 22, 2016, 11:47:36 AM

Wouldn't that plateau as we reach the blocksize limit? Bitcoin adoption could be increasing, with more transactions moving off-chain.
But we wouldn't able to figure that out, by justing looking at the number of transactions being processed.

There are still many half empty (or half full) blocks on the blockchain, or blocks with only the block generating transaction (don't know how it is properly called). When we get to the point at which there would be no more room for transactions in all blocks at the current block size during, say, a day, the block should be already expanded to accommodate all these new transactions...

It would be interesting to know the average percentage at which blocks are filled right now

I didn't word my sentence right, sorry. What I meant to say is that people have tried to flood the Blockchain with dust transactions before and these had fees attached to them although sub-optimal in order to slow down the network. So the mem pool would appear to be filled and it would seem that there is an influx of so many new Bitcoin users but in reality the amount of TX doesn't show the accurate amount of Bitcoin users. This can be really misleading.

davis196

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Quote from: deisik on November 22, 2016, 07:37:42 AM

Many folks would claim that the best metric for evaluating Bitcoin adoption by general public would be a number of users using Bitcoin. I beg to differ for the reason that, first, it is not possible to objectively and accurately estimate the number of users actually using Bitcoin, and, second, users that had used Bitcoin in the past or just keep their funds "under the mattress" are not very relevant for the said purpose since their coins can be considered as left for dead, so to speak, until and unless they start circulating again (though the case of hoarders is more intricate, of course). I think that the stats of Bitcoin transactions processed daily and their change over time is a by far more informative and objective metric, which is also readily available for analysis...

So what is your opinion on using this metric for the purposes of evaluating Bitcoin adoption rate?

But what if one user made 120 transactions last year and 550 transactions this year?

This is a growth of the number of transactions but i don`t think it`s growth of bitcoin adoption.

pooya87

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Quote from: deisik on November 22, 2016, 07:37:42 AM

~ I think that the stats of Bitcoin transactions processed daily and their change over time is a by far more informative and objective metric,~

i have been saying this for a year that if you want to see the adoption one of the closest things you can look at is the number of transactions made daily.

Quote from: yayayo on November 22, 2016, 07:45:42 PM

1. A lot of Bitcoin activity is happening off-chain. Sadly, I would estimate that the number of users of wallet services increases faster than the number of real Bitcoin standalone wallet users.

2. Relatively few actors are sending around a lot of transactions.

3. With increasing transaction fees, low value transactions are discouraged. On-chain transaction handling by exchanges and mining pools is being optimized, resulting in a smaller number of total transactions.

1) where? those wallets you say are also sending transactions on-chain since users usually just use those wallets to send and receive bitcoin from other places not inside that wallet only!

2) who is an actor? but i agree and that is why i always say this factor is the closest thing not the real deal.

3) the fees are around 10-15 cents still and transactions lower than that should not even be happening even if fees were zero.

arcanaaerobics

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For me the best metric is finding some place near you that accept bitcoin, or some service that you want to spend and this service accept the coin..

The rest is just guessing...

MingLee

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I guess that transaction volume is a pretty good metric for measuring how much Bitcoin is growing, and by the looks of the graph you posted it is growing at a pretty linear rate without a ton of variation, so I would think that's a fairly good sign.

Interesting to see there wasn't much of a dip from back in 2015 when the value was low. Sure it slowed, but it was far from shrinking.

yayayo

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While I can agree that the number of Bitcoin transactions is one of the better metrics to measure bitcoin adoption over time, I must point out several shortcomings:

1. A lot of Bitcoin activity is happening off-chain. Sadly, I would estimate that the number of users of wallet services increases faster than the number of real Bitcoin standalone wallet users.

2. Relatively few actors are sending around a lot of transactions.

3. With increasing transaction fees, low value transactions are discouraged. On-chain transaction handling by exchanges and mining pools is being optimized, resulting in a smaller number of total transactions.

Therefore, overall I would think that the growth in the number of Bitcoin transactions is an underestimation of the real Bitcoin adoption rate. However in my view it's better to be conservative in terms of positive estimations than to get euphoric about something that might not materialize as imagined.

ya.ya.yo!

sportis

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I definitely agree with OP. This time series chart is a very good visual way to evaluate the behavior and the pattern of the data over the time instances. I don't know if these are real or fake TX but till now I haven't seen any other tool to estimate the adoption rate over the time.

deisik

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Quote from: gentlemand on November 22, 2016, 05:53:37 PM

Quote from: deisik on November 22, 2016, 03:39:11 PM

The data you would get from such an exchange could mean anything for the reasons I gave in this post

All the information is unreliable but at least that measure lists individual and verified humans interacting with Bitcoin. Not much else does.

How can the data you get from the blockchain itself be unreliable? If we see that on November, 21, 2016, there were exactly 242,746 transactions processed (let's discard the possibility of a counting error), then it means just that. At least, you can always check it yourself. On the other hand, I don't share the obsession that many folks feel toward finding out how many people are using Bitcoin, for the reasons I mentioned before. I agree that if we could say exactly how many people have been using Bitcoin today and for what purposes specifically, and compare the results from yesterday and the day before yesterday, we could in fact estimate the Bitcoin adoption rates accurately. But it seems that direct measurements are not possible nowadays...

Therefore we should try to use circumstantial evidence, like number of transactions processed daily

gentlemand

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Quote from: deisik on November 22, 2016, 03:39:11 PM

The data you would get from such an exchange could mean anything for the reasons I gave in this post

All the information is unreliable but at least that measure lists individual and verified humans interacting with Bitcoin. Not much else does.

deisik

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Quote from: franky1 on November 22, 2016, 04:16:21 PM

Quote from: deisik on November 22, 2016, 03:39:11 PM

Quote from: franky1 on November 22, 2016, 03:17:01 PM

blocksize on the right.. most 999kb
https://blockchain.info/blocks

average blocksizes
https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?scale=1×pan=60days

Could you please give a link to a chart at a normal scale, not logarithmic? As I can judge, the blocks are filled only at around 80% of their capacity on average, though the logarithmic scale makes them all appear filled up to the hilt, which is no more than a false impression. Let's look at what a normal scale chart would reveal...

I bet we still have enough empty space on average

no

So you are not going to show a linear chart? Okay, I will do that for you:

This is the average block size chart for the last 180 days. As you can clearly see yourself, the blocks are filled only at around 75% of their capacity on average (maybe, somewhat higher than that). You started by claiming that the block size limits the amount of transactions. Since this is obviously not the case, you further tried to confuse the issue by pointing to a chart which looked as if the blocks had been almost filled due to a logarithmic scale of the chart. When you were told about that as well as asked to show a linear chart, you went totally off-topic...

So what's your point here?

franky1

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Quote from: deisik on November 22, 2016, 03:39:11 PM

Quote from: franky1 on November 22, 2016, 03:17:01 PM

blocksize on the right.. most 999kb
https://blockchain.info/blocks

average blocksizes
https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?scale=1×pan=60days

Could you please give a link to a chart at a normal scale, not logarithmic? As I can judge, the blocks are filled only at around 80% of their capacity on average, though the logarithmic scale makes them all appear filled up to the hilt, which is no more than a false impression. Let's look at what a normal scale chart would reveal...

I bet we still have enough empty space on average

no

on AVERAGE??
you can check the last 100+ blocks here and count how many are empty
blocksize on the right.. most 999kb
https://blockchain.info/blocks

atleast learn the CONTEXT of the stats you try to use.

especially if your ignoring avoiding other stats simply because out of the mountain of stats available you have chosen one. but not gone as far as explain the limitations of the one stat you chose.

by the way the stat you prefer is something YOU chose, so the onus is on you to explain it. i have just tried to be helpful to show how to atleast back up your one stat by saying you can use other stats, and if a pattern emerges then good for you. but if other stats dont measure up then its best to find MANY stats that can combine to show some correlation..

or just face up that while there are still transactions in the mempool even with the occassional empty block. you need to explain the empty block concept.

atleast try.

and dont assume something because you formed an opinion. back it up with data, stats, information, rational logic, etc

deisik

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Quote from: franky1 on November 22, 2016, 03:17:01 PM

blocksize on the right.. most 999kb
https://blockchain.info/blocks

average blocksizes
https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?scale=1×pan=60days

Could you please give a link to a chart at a normal scale, not logarithmic? As I can judge, the blocks are filled only at around 80% of their capacity on average, though the logarithmic scale makes them all appear filled up to the hilt, which is no more than a false impression. Let's look at what a normal scale chart would reveal...

I bet we still have enough empty space on average

Quote from: gentlemand on November 22, 2016, 03:14:05 PM

Quote from: Kprawn on November 22, 2016, 12:14:45 PM

The most accurate measure of the adoption rate, would be when regulated exchanges release their data for specific periods to see if there was a increase or a decrease during these periods.

Yup. That's one of the few reliable ways of telling. Transactions don't mean a great deal. Free to open wallets don't mean anything at all. And really not that many people ever get anywhere near an exchange either, but it is something. I'd put Localbitcoins volume in there too even though much of the trading on there probably takes place away from the site too.

The data you would get from such an exchange could mean anything for the reasons I gave in this post

franky1

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blocksize on the right.. most 999kb
https://blockchain.info/blocks

average blocksizes
https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?scale=1×pan=60days

you get the occasion blocks which are near empty.
this is not due to low demand or anything about trends.. growth or popularity of usage, this is about the pools doing "empty block" or spv mining.
meaning they start a new block empty and while hashing away they validate the prvious block. if valid, then they start filling the block with unconfirmed transactions and keep hashing.

sometimes they are lucky to get a new solve thanks to starting before everyone else hense the block isnt full.

learn context of the stats you pull. especially if you only want to use one statistic.
if you cannot learn the context of why one stat is what it is. then its best to use many stats and combine them to find a pattern. but even then you still need to attach some context to explain your opinion of the stats your using.

gentlemand

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Quote from: Kprawn on November 22, 2016, 12:14:45 PM

The most accurate measure of the adoption rate, would be when regulated exchanges release their data for specific periods to see if there was a increase or a decrease during these periods.

Yup. That's one of the few reliable ways of telling. Transactions don't mean a great deal. Free to open wallets don't mean anything at all. And really not that many people ever get anywhere near an exchange either, but it is something. I'd put Localbitcoins volume in there too even though much of the trading on there probably takes place away from the site too.

deisik

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Quote from: franky1 on November 22, 2016, 01:52:22 PM

Quote from: deisik on November 22, 2016, 07:37:42 AM

I think that the stats of Bitcoin transactions processed daily and their change over time is a by far more informative and objective metric,
So what is your opinion on using this metric for the purposes of evaluating Bitcoin adoption rate?

bad.
the blocksize caps the amount of transactions

You won't get anywhere with vacuous statements

I guess, to validate your claim, you should show how much room the existing transactions are actually taking per block these days, say, averaged on a daily basis. Just as I pointed out in one of my previous posts here (since I see many half empty blocks on the blockchain). That would be an interesting info, anyway. Until you do that or prove your point in some other reliable way, I'm inclined to think that you are debating mostly for the thrill of chase and the agony of defeat, so to speak

franky1

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Quote from: deisik on November 22, 2016, 07:37:42 AM

I think that the stats of Bitcoin transactions processed daily and their change over time is a by far more informative and objective metric,
So what is your opinion on using this metric for the purposes of evaluating Bitcoin adoption rate?

bad.
the blocksize caps the amount of transactions.

although stats from 2009 to say 2015 could have shown a pattern of growth.
2015-2016 has slowed down. not due to real world adoption slowing down. but more so due to the block limit and fee war limiting bitcoins utility.

unless there was uninhibited growth of the amount of transactions. its not a good idea to use transaction numbers as a bases.

your best plan is to get MANY stats from MANY sources and put them into a chart TOGETHER to form a average display of utility.
EG coinbase customer registrations. merchant adoption. unique bitcoin address counts.

grab every stat your can find and then put them together and if they correlate or you can explain why the ones that dont correlate to atleast show a pattern. then you can use the combined stats as your "evaluation" of adoption.

again just using one stat alone is not a good idea if you cannot explain the context or not explaining why one stat is hitting a limit

deisik

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Quote from: Kprawn on November 22, 2016, 12:14:45 PM

The most accurate measure of the adoption rate, would be when regulated exchanges release their data for specific periods to see if there was

a increase or a decrease during these periods. They have to adhere to KYC/AML regulations and this links identities to accounts, not like these

anonymous wallet providers {Blockchain.info} where one user might have multiple accounts/wallets and this will never give you a accurate

idea what the adoption rate is. The problem is, that these regulated exchanges are not sharing their data.

I tend to disagree. Even if they were sharing the data about the number of their clients, it could still be utterly misleading. For example, they show that the number of their clients increased from, say, 1,000 to 2,000 people within a month. But we don't know how many of 1,000 people they had before were actually trading during that month, right? Okay, they could reveal the number of active traders and the dynamics of this figure for the same period, i.e. whether the number of active traders increased or decreased. But how do we know that this change was actually associated with the change in the Bitcoin adoption rate, and was not caused by traders running from one exchange to another due to, for example, lower trading fees?

As to me, such info would be highly unreliable

Ayers

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the best rating for evaluating bitcoin growth is, i think, the merchants adoption, this will eventually lead to more user using it, making it more valuable on the market, and thus making it more known in the world

asse.sauga

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I think best metric is bitcoin transactions still. And to get this more accurate, transactions according to fee. Because here is a question do we want to see the bitcoin adoption as a currency or as a platform? We can differentiate this by fees and transaction size - currency tx are mostly with standardized size and fees, other tx-s are bigger and with higher fees.

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