Topic: Best Pre-Order Option NOW (Read 5553 times)

I turned completely to used hardware and have been buying as low as possible, mining while listing, and selling it to make more and buy better hardware. In just under a month I'll be up to 600GH, with a $3500 investment and turning around hardware.  Preorders are great if you are already sitting on a farm, but to the newb buying in without enough cash, smart plays on smaller hardware can still get you in the game for the long run.

That being said, once I have $6k profit, I'll be ordering a prospero x-3 for sure. That seems to be a good preorder to get into if you have the cash/btc on hand right now.

Edit: Meant to quote PenAndPaper up a few posts about not preordering, but left it out.

It's so easy to say "don't get on the pre-order band wagon"...with hindsight you may at present be right....but if the BTC price takes another massive jump before April....then you will be wrong. We all knew we were taking risks...no risk no reward. If my 167gh gets online in January I will make a profit...probably...if it arrives in feb I won't unless the BTC price does another "going mental phase". It's all a numbers game... I am at present investing in CEX to at least put my cash into action whilst I wait for BFL to deliver... Seems that again the delivery dates are slipping...caused by many different factors. It's a new game and everyone is learning. But remember 99.6% of the population haven't even heard of Bitcoin...and haven't got a clue how BIG it could get. You and I are at the beginning of something big....we just need to realise it. If you don't try and catch the train somehow....you will never get onboard!

Alright, well since all we can do for now is speculate...what do you think the diff level will be come April??

So what you are saying is to never ever do a preorder. I agree with you.

Please don't jump into pre-order band wagon until:

- you are not 100% sure the source is legit, not a scammer (see XCrowds  )
- you are not 100% sure that you (1) will receive  the miner
                                              (2)  on time (see BFL)
- you are not 100% that you will gain at least ROI.... check a profit calculator first!
 Throwing couple thousands of $ and gain profit under 5%  it is worse even if you will deposit that money to the bank for an amount of time. The scope of the "game" is to gain ROI + some consistent profit
- you are not 100% sure that you actually can use that expensive miner...True ! For eg. check your power grid, environment conditions etc.  

If you are not sure, don't risk your money.
If you still want to have coins, buy them and trade ! The BTC price will raise again and you will gain a nice profit without a headache.

Well let's say the the price of Btc is the same by the time the Neptune comes out. You can buy ~12btc to save, or you can spend ~12btc on a miner that will most likely make you well over 12btc, plus resell. If the Neptune is at all like the Jupiter release, you could mine for a couple months and resell for 4xs what you invested on the pre order...

Wrong. You should compare that to the amount of bitcoins that you can buy directly. This is typical newbie mistake that companies exploit all the time. Remember that when you buy a miner you buy bitcoins since a miner can't have any other value. (plus a reselling value of course but you need o find a bigger idiot to resell it and that's not always easy.)

Exactly, ROI is dependent on: if you/when you receive you miner to determine difficulty, and how your hashing power correlates to that, minus what you initially invested...

For now Im set just waiting on the Neptune, and the X-3s...thinking about ordering another Neptune before Christmas if they don't run out.

ROI probably will depend on three 3 criteria referenced in the quote :Will you actually get something if you guy it ( RIO if equipment doesn't arrive), when will you get it so that you can actually mine with it(quicker delivery means mining in a lower difficulty environment), and once you have the equipment running what is the cost per GH/S.

How about changing your priorities to:
1.Roi
End of list.

Now do your math again or ask for someone else to do it for you.

This is also my guess - something between 3-6 in diff. as of April 2014 - I also see at least one 28nm company failing hard. Safest way is KnC - others offer more chance but higher risk also

You mean a KNC or a Black Arrow?

Firstly, KNC is the ONLY company that has delivered 28nm miners.  They can charge a premium because of that fact.

Black Arrow has ONLY delivered FPGAs and BitFury (55nm) clones.

No other company than KNC has publicly demonstrated a working 28nm miner although it looks like HashFirst will soon be 2nd.  They are claiming to be testing chips as we speak.

Has anyone else even taped out yet?  Cointerra maybe, BFL perhaps, but not sure.  But I'm starting to think we'll soon see another bASIC fiasco by some of these lesser companies.  I'm not convinced that everyone who claims to be designing 28nm miners has generated enough preorder funds to afford the NRE costs.  Not saying that they are scams but they maybe were to ambitious and just haven't been able to raise the capital (VMC?  AMT? Bitmine?).

Expect delays from most everyone!  HashFast is already way behind their early estimates.  Also, most early batches are sold out or oversold.  Even if you can get a February order, don't actually expect it to arrive before March.  And that's being conservative.

Most importantly, don't worry about buying the most cutting edge tech.  Get hashing now!  Look for good deals in second hand sales and auctions.  Resale prices have risen almost as fast as the price of BTC.  But there are some interesting deals out there.  I even ordered a couple of BFL Singles when they had the 25%-off Black Friday sale, lol.  But hey, they are being delivered today! I also just won an auction on the board here for a 180GH BitMain Antminer.  They are auctioning off multiple units every couple days.  I'm not even sure what their chip is but they claim to have their own 55nm tech.  But it seems to me that it might be an overclocked, repackaged BitFury chip.  Even ASICMiner and Avalon have some interesting redesigned products that utilize their own first gen chips.

Keep an eye out for other BitFury clones.  It seems like MegaBigPower and BitFuryStrikesBack have fallen off the face if the earth after releasing two successful, on-time batches.  But there appears to be tons of their chips still floating around.

Good luck!

I'd say that 30PH/s network hash rate could be a fair estimate as of April 2014. At that diff 3TH would produce 0.35 BTC/day. if KnC will continue to under promise and over deliver you could get 4TH/s miner and so 0.46 BTC/day.

BFL FTW!! 

BA hasnt gotten back to me. I placed an order but i seems to be missing the payment details to make the payment.

I'm torn between the reputation of KNC and the chance of the prospero x-3. At today's prices it's 4TH of prospero or 3TH of neptune for $12k. If black arrow produces, the prospero in late feb/early march would be very nice.

Probably one of the few best offer for ASIC Miner in the future is listed in this thread !
As looking in to Q1 or Q2 with difficulty rate of almost 2-4 billions It would not be worth mining with a 100/ghs rig.

So It would be good if you could land your hand on a 1-4/THs by Q1 or Q2.

the problem with KnC is they are always sold out, it's not that i don't like the company, they just don't like me.

1)

i actually already ordered mine.

Alright so 1 KNC Neptune 13k, and 2 Black Arrow X-3s 12k....crossed fingers 

Also right now on a mining calculator, @ next estimated diff, 1TH will mine ~17btc per month. Is it a safe presumption to think by the time these pre orders arrive, let say by April...that 1TH can at least pull 6-8 BTC per month??

Let us know how it goes!

Thanks. Was looking for something from them. Though, the thread doesn't really make up my mind on them. Luckily I'm 20 minutes from their office, so I'm going to take a drive over this week. Thanks for the link.

I forgot to mention I like the look of Black Arrow Prospero X-3. Good price, power efficient, and all in a 2 U package. Totally awesome, I hope they can pull it off.

The Monarch stuff wont be available for a long while.

Does any other than KNC has 20 nm ?
Does any other has delivered ASICs in time besides them?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/official-thread-amt-304605

Is there any reputation behind advancedminers? I see their 1.2TH for $6k is scheduled to ship Feb. 3rd to 10th, but haven't seen much verification of that yet.

Seriously, on their site they say they have units in hand ready to ship. I emailed them 2 days ago to confirm this. No reply yet.

Now really , what are those ... things... doing there?

will the
1) Black Arrow X-3              2TH        $6000   $3/GH     est shipping Feb 24th
be good enough to pay for itself in feb? and what do you think the btc will be per day? .5 to 1? i think that i can afford to get one if it stays 6k

Blackarrow has delivered fpgas which I got.

To make the list a little more inclusive for folks that are smaller scale:

1) Black Arrow X-3              2TH        $6000   $3/GH     est shipping Feb 24th
2) Black Arrow X-1              100GH    $450     $4.5/GH
3) BITMINE Coincraft Rig     2TH        $12k      $6/GH    est shipping Feb 2nd week
4) BITMINE Antminer
5) KNC Neptune                  3TH        $13k     $4.3/GH  shipping Q1/Q2 so April/May??
6) CoinTerra TerraMiner IV  2TH        $6k        $3/GH     April Batch
7) HashFast Baby Jet          400 GH   $2250    $5.62/GH
HashFast Sierra              1.2 TH    $6300    $5.25/GH
9) BFL Monarch 600            600 GH   $4680    $7.8/GH
10) BFL Monarch 300           300 GH  $2800    $9.3/GH


Looks like Cointerra and Black Arrow are winning the price war.
Did I miss any of the players?

Jesus lol, its incredible that a company like Knc, that can make 8milly in a couple days, is still such a gamble. Im a professional poker player, and feel wayyyyyyyyy more uneasy putting even 6k on 1 pre-order, that I do bubbling a 50k tournament LOL.

Anyways, I feel alright about the Knc, and hope to see the X-3 at least before April....

No one knows the exact ship date.  We don't even know if they have the chips yet.

That's exactly what I was just thinking, lol.  KNC obv seems like the most 'reputable', and Black Arrow seems like the cheapest/fastest shipping. When do you think the Q1/Q2 will actually be though??

Also, Hash Fast looks cool, but the Sierra is only 1.2TH and is looking at early April shipping.

Spread your bets, if it were me.

1x KNC (3TH)
1x Black Arrow (2TH)

Total 5TH.

+1

What about Hashfast?

KnCMiner have forged themselves a great reputation with the successful Jupiter (Saturn and Mercury) delivery.  Their mantra is "under-promise and over-deliver" and with Jupiter they basically pulled it off.  Jupiter was originally advertised as a 350 GH/s miner, then upped to 400 GH/s... then 450 GH/s (with no price rise).  When delivered, most Jupiters are 550 GH/s.  You can imagine how exiting these news releases were for pre-order customers!  They did miss their September delivery deadline by one or two weeks (it became an October delivery), and I know that each week is forever in Bitcoin mining... however my opinion is that they basically delivered on time.  Yes the packaging could have been better, the firmware wasn't really ready (it's good now though), but they delivered and that's what people will remember.

I'm a happy Jupiter owner, and I've got my pre-order in for Neptune.  I won't be surprised if it delivers over-spec, so it will be interesting to see!

I also have a batch 1 pre-order for a 2 TH/s Bitmine CoinCraft Rig.  I've got a good feeling about Bitmine, and I'm looking forward to receiving the unit.  Shipping last week of December, so I'll get it first week of January.  "Shipped" is when the courier picks it up.  I allow an extra week for international delivery plus customs processing.  For example, KnCMiner shipped my Jupiter on 16 October... I got it on 25 October.

I'm sure there are other great companies out there... Bitmine and KnCMiner just happen to be the ones that I chose.

I have also the very same question as OP. I have been out since my purchase of Avalon B2, so I have no good info on these more or less new companies.

If someone could support experience with these companies with links so that I could read the full story, it would be great.

First question that comes to my mind - if there are more companies that are proven to deliver, how is that KNC comes with price that is 150-250% of competitors?

Black Arrow has delivered?  Sweet.  I should look into those guys.

KnC is known to deliver!  Black Arrow is know to deliver!

CoinTerra seems to deliver this month or if there's a delay, 1st part of January.

If you can put hands on the smaller ASIC now but buy in quantities is one of another options I think.

Example 180GH x 12 = 2160 GH in just a few days.  

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/the-3rd-round-auction-for-the-antminer-s1-dual-blades-120-units-24-hours-355755 (7 hours left in this auction)

Yesterday, my group buy shipped out 59 of the above for 4.25 BTC each.

Alright, so enough waiting. I need to place an pre-order for the Feb/March+ miners coming out. I need 4-6TH, so here are my best options as of this moment..

1.) Black Arrow Prospero X-3 2TH: $6k ea, est shipping Feb 24th (would buy 3 for around 18k = 6TH)

2.) BITMINE Coincraft Rig 2TH: $12k ea, est shipping Feb 2nd week (would buy 2 for $12k = 4TH)

3.) KNC Neptune 3TH: 13k ea, shipping Q1/Q2 so April/May?? (would buy 2 for $26k = 6TH)

4.) CoinTerra TerraMiner IV 2TH: 6k ea, April Batch (would buy 3 for $18k = 6TH)

The main priorities obv are, Trusted company, Fastest shipping, and Price per miner.

So what do you guys thinks the best way to go? Thanks, appreciate it!