Bet: We will not see single digit bitcoin price in 2013.

oakpacific

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Quote from: evolve on April 08, 2013, 10:45:58 PM

Yeah, still a ridiculously bad bet that no one would ever take (limited upside and unlimited downside).

If you don't understand that, its not surprising you can't see an obvious bubble.

As I have stated it's a troll bet after all, designed to give you bears a reality check.

If anything is ridiculous it's you bears' delusion to be able to buy back at low price lol. Grin

I see that you're probably too timid to give a target afer all, no surprise, as you have never been able to provide any falsifiable target out of those bubble talks, which are utter rubbish or FUDs for this reason.

And as far as I am concerned, something most certainly in a bubble does not have unlimited potential downside for someone bet against it. Wink

Terpie

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I don't think Bitcoin is in a bubble, but I have to agree, this is a stupid bet.

evolve

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daytrader/superhero

Yeah, still a ridiculously bad bet that no one would ever take (limited upside and unlimited downside).

If you don't understand that, its not surprising you can't see an obvious bubble.

oakpacific

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Quote from: evolve on April 08, 2013, 10:17:39 PM

Quote from: oakpacific on April 08, 2013, 09:47:56 PM

As I expected, no bear wants to accept my troll bet. When they need to put their money where their month is they start to get serious with things like odds and lose confidence with their "single digits" prediction, it's all fine, but hopefully they can also keep that in mind next time they start spouting "doom and gloom" bullshit again.

No, it's a bad bet with limited potential upside and unlimited potential downside. People smart enough to see that BTC is in a bubble are also smart enough to know a stupid bet when they see one.

The classical definition of a bubble bust is the price plunges lower than where it started, so if you're 99% confident the "bubble" will bust, you must be at least 90% that we'll get back to that price point I suppose? in our case the rally kickstarted at $13.7, $10 is not too far off. And yeah, if you propose to change the target to $15 I am fine, someone get caught in a bubble and still make a 10% profit per year, much higher than almost any bank can give him, are you kidding me?

evolve

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Quote from: oakpacific on April 08, 2013, 09:47:56 PM

As I expected, no bear wants to accept my troll bet. When they need to put their money where their month is they start to get serious with things like odds and lose confidence with their "single digits" prediction, it's all fine, but hopefully they can also keep that in mind next time they start spouting "doom and gloom" bullshit again.

No, it's a bad bet with limited potential upside and unlimited potential downside. People smart enough to see that BTC is in a bubble are also smart enough to know a stupid bet when they see one.

oakpacific

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Quote from: Matthew N. Wright on April 08, 2013, 10:09:08 PM

Quote from: oakpacific on April 08, 2013, 09:47:56 PM

As I expected, no bear wants to accept my troll bet. When they need to put their money where their month is they start to get serious with things like odds and lose confidence with their "single digits" prediction, it's all fine, but hopefully they can also keep that in mind next time they start spouting "doom and gloom" bullshit again.

Ah the "put your money where your mouth is" fallacy. I tried that one with my bet too, but even I know it's bullshit. Some people just don't gamble, or they don't have money.

I wonder why do they keep fooling around in the "Speculation" subforum then... Roll Eyes

Matthew N. Wright

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Hero VIP ultra official trusted super staff puppet

Quote from: oakpacific on April 08, 2013, 09:47:56 PM

As I expected, no bear wants to accept my troll bet. When they need to put their money where their month is they start to get serious with things like odds and lose confidence with their "single digits" prediction, it's all fine, but hopefully they can also keep that in mind next time they start spouting "doom and gloom" bullshit again.

Ah the "put your money where your mouth is" fallacy. I tried that one with my bet too, but even I know it's bullshit. Some people just don't gamble, or they don't have money.

oakpacific

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

As I expected, no bear wants to accept my troll bet. When they need to put their money where their month is they start to get serious with things like odds and lose confidence with their "single digits" prediction, it's all fine, but hopefully they can also keep that in mind next time they start spouting "doom and gloom" bullshit again.

e4xit

sr. member

Activity: 302

Merit: 250

Why don't you agree to pay opposing betters $10 each (in USD) if value travels below $10 before 00:00 GMT Jan 01 2014, and if it doesn't they pay you 1BTC each.

This way you are offering to pay them in the currency they believe to have more value, and they are offering to pay you in the currency you believe will have more value...

If the value of 1BTC is less than $10 (at any point) then they as winners will be cashing out "ahead" (with higher value than 1BTC), if not then you as winner will cash out "ahead" (with whatever value of 1BTC). Wink

superside

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Unfair odds, even 100>1 I still wouldn't bet against the op since I agree.

Razick

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It's not going to go down nearly that much, I would say $25 at the lowest.

ElectricMucus

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Marketing manager - GO MP

Quote from: oakpacific on April 08, 2013, 07:30:34 AM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 08, 2013, 07:14:39 AM

Quote from: chiropteran on April 08, 2013, 07:11:44 AM

Quote from: jl2012 on April 08, 2013, 01:02:02 AM

This is extremely unfair. If you lose, your maximum loss is 9.9999USD per bet. If you win, your maximum gain is infinity

How is it unfair? The bears are SURE value will crash to single digits. 1 BTC for a sure thing is free money. There is no risk of losing because they are positive value will crash. Just ask proudhorn.

I don't know about proudhon, but I never said that. I'm sure it will crash, but whenever that is from 190 to 3, 9001 to 100 or 500 to 1 I just don't know.

That's the nature of hyperbolic bubbles you just don't know where it ends.

I remember you said something about BTC $4, LTC $1, and XRP $10 in 2014, not sure how serious you were though.

Yes that were some broad assumptions, I wouldn't bet on it though.

oakpacific

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Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 08, 2013, 07:31:26 AM

Quote from: oakpacific on April 08, 2013, 07:25:30 AM

Quote from: Matthew N. Wright on April 08, 2013, 06:53:38 AM

Quote from: malevolent on April 08, 2013, 02:54:21 AM

For those who remember how Matthew's 10k BTC (or more? I don't remember) bet went without escrow I encourage you all to use escrow for the bet.

If nobody learned anything from that prank, that will truly make me sad. Also, this bet is unfair to anyone but the person making it.

@OP: Use bitbet or something. The forum is not an efficient place to do this. I would implore everyone to use a trusted escrow.

It may sound unfair, but I also take a risk of paying out dearly if the price truly goes below $10, and the number of people betting against me is great.

How about betting something neutral, like a small gold coin?

Underpants are more neutral than gold coins IMHO.

ElectricMucus

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Quote from: oakpacific on April 08, 2013, 07:25:30 AM

Quote from: Matthew N. Wright on April 08, 2013, 06:53:38 AM

Quote from: malevolent on April 08, 2013, 02:54:21 AM

For those who remember how Matthew's 10k BTC (or more? I don't remember) bet went without escrow I encourage you all to use escrow for the bet.

If nobody learned anything from that prank, that will truly make me sad. Also, this bet is unfair to anyone but the person making it.

@OP: Use bitbet or something. The forum is not an efficient place to do this. I would implore everyone to use a trusted escrow.

It may sound unfair, but I also take a risk of paying out dearly if the price truly goes below $10, and the number of people betting against me is great.

How about betting something neutral, like a small gold coin?

wopwop

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 250

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 08, 2013, 07:25:17 AM

Quote from: wopwop on April 08, 2013, 07:22:08 AM

Quote from: mp420 on April 08, 2013, 07:21:11 AM

I see single digits as a possibility, not as a certainty. And I think it's possible that the bottom is extended to 2014, so that we may see single digits but not until next year.

Anyway, the odds do not make sense.

i see god showing up from behind the clouds to say bitcoin is our salvation as a possibility too

You are unusually obnoxious, and registered recently... come on who's sockpuppet are you?

you are hurting my feelings

oakpacific

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Merit: 1000

Quote from: ElectricMucus on April 08, 2013, 07:14:39 AM

Quote from: chiropteran on April 08, 2013, 07:11:44 AM

Quote from: jl2012 on April 08, 2013, 01:02:02 AM

This is extremely unfair. If you lose, your maximum loss is 9.9999USD per bet. If you win, your maximum gain is infinity

How is it unfair? The bears are SURE value will crash to single digits. 1 BTC for a sure thing is free money. There is no risk of losing because they are positive value will crash. Just ask proudhorn.

I don't know about proudhon, but I never said that. I'm sure it will crash, but whenever that is from 190 to 3, 9001 to 100 or 500 to 1 I just don't know.

That's the nature of hyperbolic bubbles you just don't know where it ends.

I remember you said something about BTC $4, LTC $1, and XRP $10 in 2014, not sure how serious you were though.

oakpacific

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Quote from: Matthew N. Wright on April 08, 2013, 06:53:38 AM

Quote from: malevolent on April 08, 2013, 02:54:21 AM

For those who remember how Matthew's 10k BTC (or more? I don't remember) bet went without escrow I encourage you all to use escrow for the bet.

If nobody learned anything from that prank, that will truly make me sad. Also, this bet is unfair to anyone but the person making it.

@OP: Use bitbet or something. The forum is not an efficient place to do this. I would implore everyone to use a trusted escrow.

It may sound unfair, but I also take a risk of paying out dearly if the price truly goes below $10, and the number of people betting against me is great.

ElectricMucus

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1057

Marketing manager - GO MP

Quote from: wopwop on April 08, 2013, 07:22:08 AM

Quote from: mp420 on April 08, 2013, 07:21:11 AM

I see single digits as a possibility, not as a certainty. And I think it's possible that the bottom is extended to 2014, so that we may see single digits but not until next year.

Anyway, the odds do not make sense.

i see god showing up from behind the clouds to say bitcoin is our salvation as a possibility too

You are unusually obnoxious, and registered recently... come on who's sockpuppet are you?

mp420

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Quote from: wopwop on April 08, 2013, 07:22:08 AM

i see god showing up from behind the clouds to say bitcoin is our salvation as a possibility too

Frankly I think many people on this forum are thinking this is going to happen.

wopwop

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 250

Quote from: mp420 on April 08, 2013, 07:21:11 AM

I see single digits as a possibility, not as a certainty. And I think it's possible that the bottom is extended to 2014, so that we may see single digits but not until next year.

Anyway, the odds do not make sense.

i see god showing up from behind the clouds to say bitcoin is our salvation as a possibility too

Topic: Bet: We will not see single digit bitcoin price in 2013. (Read 2818 times)