Topic: Betcoin.eu - full automated lottery with 160% / 200% instant payout (Read 8724 times)

mem here again,

yep - the numbers can be pre-checked and the site op can easily insert a bet at the right time.

I saw a player(bot) wake up from a 16 hour sleep to place a single bet after I had a string of 10 losses.
The play did not come back online until another 10 hours later.

I have also had non payout issues and bets simply not being placed.

Unless the fairness issue is addressed I will not be shifting out of the scam list.

Hopefully I can sit down tonight and update my list, still catching up on all the backlog + I have started a new perl project on the side.

Figures that three days AFTER I found the site, it was added to the "Fraud/Unattended" category in mem's list.

r4in - look at his comments that mem made on June 23 in his gambling list thread.

I was playing on June 20th and the jackpot was at 35 bitcoins, which I calculated would mean ~154% expectation for BTC0.1 bets. I was actually considering playing until hitting the jackpot and sent three separate BTC0.1 bets in one transaction to make sure it could handle it the way Satoshi Dice can. Only one of the bets got booked the site kept the rest. Looks like that little amount may have saved me quite a bit of money.

Mem suspects there is a bot that checks the random number ahead of time and places the bet right when it needs to.

F that site.

BTW - the way I calculated expectation was ²/₅ x 1.6 + ⁴⁹/₅₀₀ x 2 + ¹/₅₀₀ x 350 = 153.6%

1 betting unit was 0.1 and the jackpot was ~35BTC so, 350 units in the last one there.

Does that calculation look about right to you?

Even now with the jackpot at only BTC13.9 the expectation should be 111%. I suspect that mem's theory of a bot playing and keeping the jackpot has merit.

Betcoin.eu ist mit most likely fraud.

I just conducted 112 games with a bet of 0.1 BTC each. I won 41 games. The likelihood, that the true win rate equals 50% is just 0,6%!

The calculation from my statistics tool:

Exact binomial test

data:  41 and 112
number of successes = 41, number of trials = 112, p-value = 0.00589
alternative hypothesis: true probability of success is not equal to 0.5
95 percent confidence interval:
 0.2770590 0.4623553
sample estimates:
probability of success  0.3660714

In plain english: The likelihood to win just 41 times out of 112 tries with a postulated win rate of 50% is just 0.00589 or 0,6%! By 99.4% the true likelihood is something completely different. I only observed a win rate of 37% instead of 50% with a very significant sample count.

-> Stay away, the indication of fraud is very strong in my opinion.

Does anyone have contact info for this site? I think it ate 0.2 of my bitcoins and I'd like to get it sorted out. I couldn't find anything in english on the site for how to get a hold of the operators.

"Da Man" has apparently not been active on the forums since last year.

Back from holidays.

I am glad anything is still working and want to send congratulations to the two jackpot winners this week!

Regards!

We will try a special with no fees and a 200% payout at the weekend. Please send me a PM with your currently used Bitcoin address.

As you know all numbers are generated and delivered by random.org.

It would be nice if we could see the personal total bets...
I've bet all my (4.6~ BTC) on your game, lost all in the end, and I think I've won 44% of the bets.
I'm mildly unlucky? Yeah. With the 160% and very difficulty JP, It's a secure loss for me
0,2% chance of win JP.
my 184 bet = 36% chance of won...

Thanks a lot

I checked the database and saw you played 80 rounds. At 50% you should have won 40 games, but at the moment you won 34. You have to win just 6 games more to be even, I think thats in normal range.

I think so, the complete all-played-games-percentage is 47,68 % at the moment. I checked the connection to random.org, but there are no problems.

I've done a lot of bet... And I have an high % of losses... Very unlucky?

Just bet 0.1 and won 0.16, I like how it instantly sent me my winnings.  I think I better quit while I'm ahead 

It's a company server, I have no direct costs for the server. It will be running anyway.

5% seems more than fair to me, does it even cover your costs?

So tell me what you would like to change and how the bank balance could be increased to cover more and higher bets?

What I am saying is that the money "in the Bank" is your money as well. Your profit, or more exactly your expected profit remains the same and is above 5%.

Sorry, i don't understand what you mean. I don't Charge doubble! I Charge 5% (0.005 btc) of every 0,1 btc Bet. Everything Else remains in the game and is Used to cover payouts. It would Be Great if the Bank would have more money, but its running 3-4 Weeks now and there is no noteable increase of the banks balance. At the Moment it decreases. Or did i missunderstand you?

Sorry for upper/lowercase, i am typing on the mobile.

So yeah you still charge "double" for the game. Firstly a fixed 5% fee that then make your win loss calculations look better and then you have the advantage that 80% of win's you only pay out 160%. You basically make this calculation make you look much worse off than you are. Yes the advantage after the 5% (on every bet) is small, but it still exists.

Yes with variance comes always the risk that the operator looses short term, otherwise there would be no incentive for the player to gamble as he is always in the disadvantage. If you move the 5% out of the pool its easier for you to go below your safe treshold of -2 BTC, which in my eyes is way to low. You should have at least 5x the max payout available to cover variance. But in long term every % of house edge will make you the winner.

The JP is essential and the only reason it's worth playing. But it's not like you pay for it out of your pocket.

I'm finding your payouts to be quite interesting. I have a feeling though that more will play more often even if it's at the expense of a bigger jackpot. You'll have more winners but smaller jackpots. More will be winners but the jackpot winner won't win as much. I guess you find the balance where more are playing to optimize your business.

I wish the odds where a little better, too. But let me explain why there is not much room for the game.

Reason 1: 10% of every bet >= 0.1 btc will be moved to to jackpot
Reason 2: 5% of every bet will be moved to the system fee account
Reason 3: 50% winning chance

So if you play with 0.1 btc that means that 0.085 btc will remain on the bank account and will be used for regular gameplay.

Now we play 500 rounds. The complete deposit is 500 x 0.1 btc = 50 btc -> net 42,5 btc

We have a 50% winning chance, so 250 rounds will statistically win. We have two winning classes with 160% and 200% (even numbers greater than 400).

So 200 games will win 160% and 50 games will win 200% ->

200 x 0.16 btc = 32 btc
50 x 0.2 btc = 10 btc

Total payout: 32 btc + 10 btc + (Transfer Fee for wins) about 0.125 btc = 42.125 btc Payout


Lets have a look at the bank with 42.5 btc deposits and subtract 42.125 btc payouts. Result -> Bank + 0,375 btc.

As you see the bank remains balanced and makes a slight plus of 0.375 btc. Thats not much! If someone bet 1 btc and wins the bank makes a clear minus and we can hope that another one plays with 1 btc and loses to compensate for the loss.

If the bank falls below a certain amount there will be a warning message not to play with larger amounts than 0.1 btc. If the bank falls to 2 btc the site closes automatically and no further bets are possible.

Now remember the weekend special with 200% payout for every even number, started friday afternoon a week ago! I knew that this system could not work, but some people asked me to give it a try. So I did. The result was that I have to end the weekend special after 12 hours. The bank was broken. I changed it to 200% for every even number greater than 400. Thats what we have now.

So what could be done to increase the payout percentage?

1. We can play without a jackpot. But right no I see that noone is playing because of a missing jackpot.
2. We can play without a system fee. No, we don't really like that, right? :-)

That's all we can do.

But there is one thing more: we can reduce the 50% winning chance. Let calculate it:

40% winning chance -> every even number >100 wins -> Payout 180% and 220% = bank plus 4,4 btc
30% winning chance -> every even number >200 wins -> Payout 200% and 300% = bank plus 7,425 btc

In this scenario we can use the bank plus to increase the jackpot, but we will need a bigger bank to cover possible winnings.

But note: higher payout means the player will loose more often and need more luck to win.

So what do you think?

Regards!