Topic: 🦊 Betnomi.com | FPL Football Pool ⚽ Discussion Thread - page 144. (Read 54726 times)

@buwatress - Someone finally take the "Sabi ball" thing to the next level. I'm impressed with his game plan so far but I'm trying really hard to banter him. 


Yes we don't see eye to eye - I won the FPL Cup last season and finished Top5. You went trophyless 

This is where we don't see eye to eye in FPL. I am not shocked, I am super happy with my decision. I decided to play Raya, Gabriel and Saka this week because I thought Arsenal will have great game against CP this week.

Yeah captain decision did not go my way, but if I told you Arsenal is gonna win 5:0, Chealsea 1:0 and both Saka and Palmer will play full minutes, who would you captain? This is perfect case of luck vs. decision making. I would pick Saka every time and it is the right choice. This time it did not work but 8/10 times it would have gone Saka way. And over long time things like that pay off.

That's a wrong a assertion in my opinion, he has zero knowledge about FPL chips, fine but he knows his ball, take a look at his team over the course of the season so far and tell me that his choice of players are terrible or just random picks with no subsequent games in mind. Having your FPL chips work out for fine for your selected game week is where you can consider luck as a factor and that's how many gameweeks for a bench boost and triple captain ? For free hit and wild cards you need to know what you're doing, but luck isn't what help you stay head above waters for 21 gameweeks simply because you haven't used your any of your chips.

Yeah, I suppose this is the only time strategy works, yet it is also difficult to come by. 5 Arsenal goals, 90 minutes played, and no goal contribution from Saka. The difference is that you are shocked, while I am not.

This single game week is the longest; I went back to make transfers only to realise we were still in the previous GW.


If the system wasn't luck-based, the lucky bastard Cryptofka, who has zero knowledge of FPL (I'm sure he hasn't heard of bench boasts or free hits yet), would be at the bottom. 

I still can't believe how Gabriel scored 2 goals in the first half today. Let's see if he can manage to complete it to a hat-trick in the second half. It looks like this week will absolutely be sad for people who don't have Gabriel in their squads.

But who consistently get's lucky for 38 game weeks ? Every player in the FPL gets unlucky at some point regardless of how strategic you're, I just want point out that some decision are just riskier but doesn't make them luck oriented just like the term differentials that is often being used in the FPL, no one could convincingly predict that they'll finish in top 10,000 at beginning yes but finish there doesn't make lucky and rule every long term strategy, you could see someone who set up their team and never look back at it win manager of the week multiple times along the season, or even manager of the month (very very low chance), but you'll almost never see any manager that didn't touch their team after game week one finish in the top 100k come the end of the season, meanwhile if luck has the biggest impact on where a manager finishes then I'd suppose there should be at least 1 manager from the multimillions that would get a lineup that doesn't need any change and get within the need average point per week to finish within the overall top positions.

I feel you on that bad timing as i've made a similar mistake of not trusting Palmer in the previous gameweek. 



I'm also at the point of replacing Watkins (for maybe Haaland), but still, he could potentially bring in some nice points in the upcoming weeks.

I couldn't win the number of points I expected from any of my players except Palmer until now. Every player on my bench won quite good amount of points this week and this made me even sadder. Watkins has been out of form for long weeks. Do you think that it is time to sell him?

I believe it is much more. I would say that just a proper use of wildcard and free hit can get you much more than that. Those two chips are incredibly important since they have influence on multiple game weeks if played properly. While I believe most people get it for wildcard I don't think people realize what free hit can do for you.

Here is an example if doubles and blanks play out as predicted. Not confirmed yet.
For instance most of don't have Haaland and Salah in our teams. City and Liverpool will probably have a double in GW25 and blank in GW26. Provided Salah stays in AFCON long and Haaland is still not 100% ready, free hit in GW25 gives you a perfect team in all the game weeks until 27. So just one free hit is giving you a boost and advantage over 5GW. Could be 100 points just in that.

But then there will be a blank GW (I think 29) where we will have maybe just 4 games so that will be though to navigate as well. Always decisions in FPL.
Triple captain and bench boost are much less valuable and they are much more luck based.

Everything is partially luck based, but I'm speaking about the decisions I made that were choice-based and were terrible - those are the ones I hopefully won't be repeating next year.
It takes some experience to make the logical choices across 38 GW's.

Of course that nothing will help you if you make the wrong choices player-wise, but there's probably 100 points per year riding on experience alone (when to change, use wildcards etc). And 100 points make a huge difference.

My point is about making right decisions, that will get you far in FPL. But then to breach that last 10k barrier you also have to have some luck to go with it.

Perfect example KDB this week. Bringing him into the team with data available was terrible decision but it worked well for those that did it. 8/10 time it would not, and I am generous with the odds here. Those kind of decisions compound during the season.

Another bad decision is doing early transfers. This week it is doubly so since it is so long before next deadline. Does not mean it will not help you sometimes but those 0.1M saved will cost much more when it goes against you. I did it last week since I did a bit of math and decided savings on Salah/Son for Richarlison/Bowen are worth the risk. Probably got screwed a little with Bowen injury but I went into it knowing I have excellent bench to cover if needed. And currently all three of my bench players have 6 or more points so Bowen missing a game will not hurt me that bad if he is ok after that. If he is injured for longer than I burned that transfer and that is really costly.

Think of it like betting on high odds. They are high for a reason and in the long run they will not come that often. Make a sample big enough and it isn't luck anymore it is more risk management.

Isak did well for Newcastle against Manchester City in my opinion, he was the first to score the goal for Newcastle and was a constant problem for the Manchester City defenders to contain.

Consistency will give you experience but Luck will help ensure that your plans based on experience do not go sideways.

You just agreed to my point with the second paragraph of your post without knowing 

The 1st -10k is luck, and anything less is strategy. Well, talking about Newcastle United, we all know what happened the last time we all complained about the entire team being injured, and they went on to beat Chelsea and go unbeaten for a few unexpected games, right? Personally, only Gordon and Trippier are worth considering in Newcastle United's present form.

Consistency is always important, but it does not rule out luck.

somewhat agree with this
that also is a fact for Superbru pools as well

one GW is always a luck, but consistency is a key there, as well here, but FPL does require too much time to be consistent, and that is where I fail
but overall, one has to encounter too many facts into his team to stay competitive, and most users just go with recommended setup, which is also a good setup, since being out of top players when they have a haul put you strongly down

I strongly disagree with this. Yeah any given GW is luck. You can play tripple captain in perfect double GW and your guy gets injured 10 minutes into first game. Nothing you can do about that.

But during the length of whole season those variances level out and good managers find their way to the top.

Again top 10k needs some luck, but top 200k is respectable and achievable every season.

Newcastle example, they have been perfectly predictable all season. Of course they are bad with half team injured, playing every 3 days and having though schedule. Now they are out from other competitions and had time to recuperate and good fixtures are coming soon....we should be buying their players not selling and most people are still selling.

There is no need for a lot of experience because FPL is 80% luck and 20% strategy. I said the same thing last season after coming #5; I felt I had learned enough to challenge for the title this season, but now I'm stuck somewhere in the middle. Ali (FPL Gunz), who won the FPL last season and wrote a book on how to win a few weeks ago, is nothing close to Top #10k this season. You may be adept at making transfers and saving money on fees, but if Newcastle United fails to win a game in the last seven, you cannot be blamed. 

Watkins blanking in 5 GWs.

Arsenal moving from 1st to 4th.

Newcastle moving from 4th to 10th.

You have to be very lucky to survive all this.

I always feel like the price will drop by 0,5 mil if he's not ready to play. Then again, his price has barely moved throughout the season - which shows how wrong I still am with such things.
Most this year's mistakes I did for 2 reasons - thinking price moves way faster and forgetting that I can make more than 1 transfer (by using -4 points penalties).

Next year I'm gonna win this shit.

You make the transfer with intent to screw yourself when you do it this early. I mean this current GW is still running for a week and there is 15 days to next deadline. City squad is training in Dubai, why wouldn't you wait to hear the news?

My plan is Alvarez to Haaland for this week if he is back. So exact opposite of your transfer.

My Haaland story is fascinating. I was without him for 15 GW's, then took him too early in GW19 (Everton), which made me have a 14 mil player for 3 GW's without him playing 1 minute.
Now I took him off the team again and replaced him with Alvarez, so expect him to make a miraculous recovery and score a hattrick against Burnley.

Whatever I do, I just hope I'll remain near the top 5 until Salah and Son return - I need to wildcard as soon as possible.

And that is my problem with KDB. Players after returning from long injury are much more suspect to get injured again. Just as it happened with Nkunku. KDB is world class but he looked winded even in 30 minutes he played this week. I don't think he is nowhere near fitness levels to play every 90 mins every game in PL. Question is how much he can do with maybe half of the minutes available? Probably enough