Topic: [Betting & Discussion] Chinese Basketball Association - Rest of 2019/2020 Season (Read 458 times)

I expected this to be a more easy win as well. They are so dominant and can basically decide on their own how a game finishes; if they want, they can win every game with 40+. Maybe they were a bit nervous yesterday and also a bit tired from the last weeks. And the Yi injury played into this too in the end - with him available in the last minutes, they probably would have beaten the -9.5.

In general I don't like to play HC's somehow, because it's not what teams are playing for. They want to win the game and don't care that much, if it's with +1 or +50.

Just so people get an idea, how good Guangdong is: They only played with one import player all the time, although they are allowed to use two. They flew in their second import player MarShon Brooks some weeks ago and have him sitting in a hotel room as a backup since then

Not for me as i'm one shot short for the win on the last game of the season in the CBA. I thought that there is no more playing around for the Southern Tigers and enforce their full strength in this last game but it was scary in the first half.



@tyKiwanuka, hope you will be back next season mate.

Hehe, well done Thats how it should be - look for good pre-match odds and try to get even better odds inplay.

In Q4 Guangdong gave us a little scare, because their Superstar Yi Jianlian (some might still know him from NBA) went down with achilles tendon rupture and this could have turned the game around, but Guangdong fought trough it and won 123-115 FT. This injury is maybe career-ending for him, since he is probably way older than what public sources say

Profit: +8.10   
Yield: 7.24%   
W-L: 13-13
Win rate: 50.00%   
Average Stake: 4.30   
Average Odds: 2.35

Not great stats, but ok. 2020/2021 season starts in October iirc, so I will probably be back then with a few bets here and there, though I am aware it's hard to follow the bets with the same-ish odds, which is very important longterm. Teams should look very different and this will for sure give some good opportunities in the beginning of the season at least.

Nice way to end the season with a win. I was going to take them pre live but the odds went down to 1.2 so I was banking on them to go down early and they did. I manage to grab the match winner at 1.4. I didn't put too much but it's still a nice boost for my bankroll. 

Guangdong - Liaoning ML Guangdong @1.36 8/10

Last game of this season and I have written about Guangdong often times. They are by far the best team in CBA and they own every opponent (but Beijing). Why is the series tied at 1-1 then ? Looks like they wanted a third game for whatever reason. They were in control in game #2 already with 20pts up late in the third quarter, but then played a bit strange and didn't seem to keen to get the Championship just yet; lost Q4 with 20-34. But for me there is no doubt, that they will be crowned champions tomorrow and for this to happen, they have to win tomorrow.

These are small odds of course, but maybe something to put in some parlay. Good luck

They thought this was AllStar-Game and came out firing on all cylinders. This bet was never in danger of winning, but this is sometimes better than losing a close one. The line was going up a bit after I placed the bet, thats never a good sign in CBA as it was the case here too, 119-132 FT.

Profit: +5.22   
Yield: 5.03%   
W-L: 12-13
Win rate: 48.00%   
Average Stake: 4.15   
Average Odds: 2.39

---

Fujian was the only underdog to make it to the next round. Quarter-finals will start tomorrow with the Top4 teams from regular season tuning in and starting their run for the title:

Guangdong - Qingdao
Beijing - Fujian
Xinjiang - Beikong
Liaoning - Zhejiang

Not too excited with these matchups; Guangdong and Beijing should have no problems to reach SF and odds suggest just that. I can see one of Beikong/Zhejiang pulling an upset, but lets see what odds we will get for that (these games are on Monday).

Guangsha - Fujian under 219,5 @1.82 4/10

This is too high for such a crucial match (remember it's bo1). Guangsha rarely crossed this line, they even often times didn't have 200+ in their games. Fujian is a high-scoring team, but they will adjust their style for tomorrows game a bit too. 200-210 points looks more likely.

No "luck" here, Guangdong played their normal style, toying with their opponents as usual, 101-82 FT.

Profit: +9.22   
Yield: 9.24%   
W-L: 12-12
Win rate: 50.00%   
Average Stake: 4.16   
Average Odds: 2.42

The numbers look ok, but still a small sample size.

---

Regular season is finished now and we are wating for playoffs to start on Friday and which will be "best of one" only for this and the following round.

Zhejiang Guangsha - Fujian
Zhejiang Chouzhou - Shanxi
Beikong - Jilin
Qingdao - Shandong

Lets see how the bookies/markets price these games.

Guangdong - Beijing ML Beijing @3.37 2/10 (FJ)

Betting against Guangdong is not what I would normally recommend, since they decide how a game ends For that game tomorrow they might think it's better to gift the points to Beijing though, because it would mean that Beijing secures #3 spot in regular season and they would avoid them in PO for the time being. This is just pure speculation - thus the low staking - but Beijing is their nemesis.

If Liaoning loses their game tomorrow, this changes the calculation, but they are 1.01 favourites to beat Sichuan and need the win to stay in Top4. 

I actually made a mistake with the second bet - math was never my strength - and the stake should have been 1.83/10 to cover 6 units. I will use the 1.83 stake for the stats.
It was a closer match than expected in the end, though I never had the feeling that Fujian would lose this. They played with full roster again and won 127-120 FT. +9.60 - 1.83 = +7.77 units

Profit: +11.22   
Yield: 11.47%   
W-L: 12-11
Win rate: 52.17%   
Average Stake: 4.25   
Average Odds: 2.38

Tomorrow there is only one game, which is uninteresting.


Gratz I expected Fujian to win more comfortable, but happy it was close, if it won you a bet. In general it's very hard to follow these bets - maybe too hard to justify such a thread, which is hard to maintain anyway due to different circumstances. The odds in CBA just move very fast once published, because they are often very wrong. So I don't know, if there is a point in continuing. You could get odds around 2.50-ish for Fujian for around an hour yesterday, some hours later they were around 2.00, before tip-off all the way down to 1.1x.

If people read my posts only hours later and then play 1.60, when I played/recommended 2.60, then this is not what I want, because they will most likely lose money longterm (value is gone in the lower odds). I think I will continue with posting some bets for last round of regular season and PO's afterwards and then re-think, if such a thread makes sense (for next season)

Nice catch on those odds, I missed the underdog odds on Fujian so I had to monitor the live odds. There were a couple of chances but the odds didn't move that high (only 1.3-1.4) during the second quarter when Beijing went on a small run to take the lead. In the third Fujian gain control of the lead so I had to take my chances in the +8.5 live handicap odds for Shanghai luckily they covered. 

Fujian did indeed rest their best two players for this game. During this season, when one of these two was missing, they always lost by 30+. Both these players missing was a first time this season, but they did a bit better and lost by 28. 115-87 FT.

Odds shortly before tip-off:


Source: FortuneJack

As said, this will not count towards the stats, so they remain the same.

---

For tomorrow/Friday:

Shanghai - Fujian ML Fujian @2.60 6/10 (FJ)

These odds look super high, if Fujian gave only a one-game rest to their two best players. If they choose to rest them for more games - to have them fresh for PO and because they don't care about finishing #12/#11/#10 in the table, then these odds are poor. It's a little gamble and I might buy these odds back (most likely with a loss), so either stake only 2-3/10 or watch out for a new post or edit in this thread and hedge for a loss then.

Edit:

Odds have moved a bit and I personally have taken out my stake by betting on Shanghai @4.29 to win 6 units. This is still CBA and anything can happen, so I would recommend to do the same.

Shanghai - Fujian ML Shanghai @4.29 1.4/10


Source: FortuneJack

Beijing - Fujian ML Beijing @1.76 7/10 (FJ)

Beijing needs this win badly to secure a spot in Top4. They even rested their best player against Sichuan in last game to have him fresh for this game. Fujian has not a lot to play for - they will finish in Top12 and if it's better to finish #12, #11, #10 etc. is yet unknown. Beijing is the way better team overall and I could even imagine Fujian giving some rest to their players.

Edit:

FJ copied the odds from Marathon/1xbit without Bet365 having published their odds yet (they are benchmark). Bet365 opened like 30min later with 1.34 for Beijing and it's down to 1.25 now even. I won't count this bet for the stats, since there is no point in just pimping the stats, without anyone being able to follow the bets. And I doubt anyone was able to follow.......

No good bets in the past days. It doesn't mean that I don't play anything, but there is nothing that I can really recommend with clean conscience for people to probably follow. For today I placed a bet on Shandong ML, when the odds came out with medium stakes:



Getting up this morning, I checked the odds movements and saw this :



I tried to search for information, why these odds were going so heavily against me, but have no idea. I only know, that Shandong will not win this match. This is probably fixed or lots of Shandong players got sick, which is not made public and only certain people know of. Lets see what the line-ups will look like.

Another loss, slowly but surely going back to break-even, hope things turn around quickly It's better not to bet on rising odds in gerenal, but sometimes it looks just too tempting. 107-100 FT

Profit: +3.45   
Yield: 3.83%   
W-L: 11-10
Win rate: 52.38%   
Average Stake: 4.29   
Average Odds: 2.27

---

Yeah, sorry I think in CBA you should frequently look to hedge your bet a bit inplay and/or create some jackpots/windows. Even better to just do everything inplay, but for this thread this is not feasible, so we have to live with games taking huge U-turns.


Beikong is short for Beijing Konggu, which is their name, while the team is 北京控股紫禁勇士俱乐部, which is then Beijing Royal Fighters. Since there is another team in Beijing (Ducks), people normally use Beikong/Beijing to clearly distinguish between them. Beikong, in their short history, already had quite a few names, so I always use Beikong for them as well whatever their "official" name is as we speak.

I also thought they had it after gaining good momentum in the second quarter with a 12-0 run then it carried on until the third but unfortunate Xinjiang manage to control the game in the fourth.

I should've taken Xinjiang when the score difference was only 1 pt but I trusted the momentum way too much and decided to let it ride. 

Something weird happened in the 2nd quarter and i thought the game is on the bag already for Beijing but weird thing reoccur again in Q4 lol. You've got higher odds for ML, i thought for a while that i'm betting on the wrong team, but your post above confirmed that i'm betting for the same team you are betting.  Beikong=Beijing, may i know the story behind this?


 

Looked very good until Q4, and then CBA madness striked again:


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/match/ShL2YwTf/#match-summary

Annoying as hell tbh, but what can you do.

Profit: +6.45   
Yield: 7.41%   
W-L: 11-9
Win rate: 55.00%   
Average Stake: 4.35   
Average Odds: 2.30

-

For tomorrow just one small bet:

Guangzhou - Jiangsu ML Jiangsu @1.76 3/10

Jiangsu have a new coach and already won last game as huge underdogs. When the odds came out, they went down quite fast, but have now come back, which maybe is a hint for them losing on purpose to have a "chance" to finish behind Shanghai. If I was 100% sure that Jiangsu wants to win, this would be medium-big bet, but with this uncertainty just small stakes (and praying ).

Beikong - Xinjiang HC Beikong +8,5 @ 1.67 6/10
Beikong - Xinjiang ML Beikong @3.28 3/10

Super nice value odds/lines, will edit reasoning later.

Edit: Xinjiang is more or less a fix for 2nd place and they will maybe look to take it easy tomorrow and save some energy. Beikong is still fighting for that Top4 spot and will throw everything they have at Xinjiang. Beikong wasn't too convincing recently, but this is all about motivation.

Edit2: I am adding Xinjiang -2.5 @1.89 for 5/10. Just got to know that Xinjiang is getting some personnel back for todays match, which is good for them. So adding a little "hedge" with a middle here and a 6-point-window.

This finished with 224 points in the end, so false alarm.

But since I talked about strange things happening in CBA and maybe even bookmakers being involved, this is what happened in Tianjin - Liaoning match today:

During the second half, Pinnacle offered HC lines of +46,5/-46,5, while Bet365 had +54,5/-54,5. This is rather strange with 8 point difference. Tianjin was fighting till the end, even tried to steal the ball in the closing stages etc. With being 52 down and only like 20sec left, they stopped defending and gifted Liaoning a three-pointer with 12sec left. They stopped playing with these 12sec left and the game finished 78-133 FT, HC-54,5 won, which was a super poor bet to place, when you can get -46,5 elsewhere. But Bet365 "knew" how this game would end and trapped their customers into placing +54,5, which looked super value.

---

In Tongxi - Shandong game (110-125 FT), we had one player of Tongxi scoring all their 21pts in first quarter and he finished with scoring 74pts in the end, lol.

No bragging, but I played this bet when the odds came out:



At tip-off, the odds were like this:


Source: https://www.oddsportal.com/basketball/china/cba/

This league is crazy and often times the bookmakers have no clue, while otoh sometimes they have a very good clue what will happen, as you can see in Liaoning game