Betting on favorites. not always effective

DaNNy001

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Quote from: stadus on February 09, 2025, 11:18:31 PM

You win some, you lose some, that's how it goes.

I'm not a big fan of NFL, but there's a common saying in sports betting: bet against the public. The public usually goes for the favorites, which often ends up costing them. So if the data shared earlier reflects the true winning rate on ATS this season, betting on favorites all the time might not lead to losses. Of course, no one bets that way since we’re selective with our picks, and sometimes even our best choices lose. It really all comes down to how good we are at choosing the right side.

Lately I have been seeing some predictions on NFL but I don't copy the bets because I'm still trying to know my way around it...I don't always rely on others for knowledge, instead I make research and try to come up with my own strategies... just like you said betting against the public might be profitable, although the chances of winning are slim but it's all a risky gamble, luck can come at any time..It reminds me of Liverpool's recent match, everyone's idea was that Liverpool was going to win scoring over 2.5 goals..But the opposite happened, they lost without scoring even a single goal.. Those that decided to bet against the public really got lucky that faithful day.

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Quote from: sompitonov on Today at 02:11:28 PM

I don't know much about the NFL, but I can answer the last question because I sometimes bet on other sports that I like on people who are not favorites. I just knew a lot about hockey teams, so before the championship I looked at the rosters and knew that some of the favorites were in terrible shape, and I bet on a weaker team that was playing against them. I don't know if it's a coincidence, but I managed to win quite a few games this way, but then those teams were eliminated from the championship and I didn't bet anymore. I hope I managed to explain and you understood that I looked at how weak the favorites were in terms of rosters and the odds seemed very good to me.

You had a good and interesting experience, but what prevents you from continuing to use your strategy further, or are these teams no longer in these championships?

In general, there is no single recipe, strategy for winning, at least I do not know this and you were probably just lucky, because in your case there was not a sufficient sample, and everything was limited to only one championship, although I am glad that you managed to win in a short period. But in general, betting on favorites or not is not very important, because each individual game must be examined under a microscope, and sometimes find excellent odds in which the favorite is weak, and his opponent has excellent chances. In general, not everything is so clear.

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Quote from: Davidvictorson on Today at 12:32:23 PM

Quote from: Oshosondy on Today at 04:47:38 AM

People will prefer to bet on the teams they think would win. That is how betting is. If you bet otherwise, you will lose more money. The odds are set not to favour bettors.

It was just some few days ago we discussed about betting on underdogs. I remember the opinions on people when they wrote that it wasn't a good decision to make bets on underdogs. Some of you aren't betting on the underdogs, it means you're betting on the favorites then. Well, the OP is another reason see that it is not about the underdogs or the favorites. It is this simple as you have said - bet on the team that you think will win and not on the underdogs or favourites.

I don't know about this particular sport OP is addressing but taking my instance as a football sports bettor, i don't mind betting on the underdogs assumed in a particular case, some causes that might affect the performance of the favorite team, moreover you don't expect the small club to lose at all times, we can see that even from the Premier League, clubs like Bournemouth and rest are yet capable of defeating Liverpool, wins from the underdogs are full of surprises sometimes there are gamblers whom are conversant in taking much risk fewer times they get the best outcome.

Sometimes you don't need to pick who wins or not, just play safe by experiencing different booking options, platforms has made it a lot better for many options when you not sure of direct victories.

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Quote from: Findingnemo on Today at 12:42:15 PM

Approaching a game from neutral perspective will give us the best assesment of the team that's likely going to win but we have to think practical too, people bet on the sports which they love and when they do they have favourites too. So when their favourite team is playing they will be always tempted to bet on them which may lead to loss. There's gamblers approach of a bet and there's fanatic way of approaching a game, the later is always the best.

The effectiveness of our sports is simple, we should never underestimate the oppositions because in sport, alot of impossible outcome is actually been triggered. I've encounter quite extreme roles that are ruined by our ignorance, who wouldn't want to be stuck in profits? Everyone wished to be eating really good from the system.

There's this scenario we should tend to understand, there's always something to follow whenever our mind is been made to gamble. I know it's never consider an easy thing but the best is yet to come. Losses and winnings are all acceptable because it all originates from the pattern we execute. This betting is dangerous but not for those category of people that are absolutely applying precaution and measures to step up in profits. It's usually consider difficult but once there's enough dashing techniques, winnings do come forward.

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

Gambling is the riskiest game where you have to take the most risks. And in this gambling game, no one can say with 100% certainty that my favorite team will win. Sometimes it is seen that favorite teams perform the worst and bad teams perform well and win. So there is no correct analysis of who will win and who will lose in a risky game, and it is not that our confident team will win. So it is not right to always bet with confidence on gambling platforms because confidence never helps in winning bets.

But I have never bet on such games. I have always bet on football and cricket matches where I can do some analysis. And those who have bet on these games probably took their maximum risk and bet on the underdog because they thought the game might have a chance for the underdog.

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

I don't know much about the NFL, but I can answer the last question because I sometimes bet on other sports that I like on people who are not favorites. I just knew a lot about hockey teams, so before the championship I looked at the rosters and knew that some of the favorites were in terrible shape, and I bet on a weaker team that was playing against them. I don't know if it's a coincidence, but I managed to win quite a few games this way, but then those teams were eliminated from the championship and I didn't bet anymore. I hope I managed to explain and you understood that I looked at how weak the favorites were in terms of rosters and the odds seemed very good to me.

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Based on the analysis, the Eagles are doing best right now compared to the Chiefs, so if Chiefs is your favorite, then for me, I'm against it without analyzing how the team plays.
Even though they are two time defending champions, I see that the Eagles have a higher chance to win based on their game plays.
I don't know how you analyze these two teams; having a favorite doesn't mean you will always win, but if you do have some analysis, you should be able to know if the Eagles have a chance to win. That is why analysis remains the best thing you can do before betting because it allows you to learn more about the team and determine whether the opposing team has a chance to win the game.

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

There will always be failures in favorites especially in sports like NFL, tennis and basketball being the sports with most failures when betting on favorites. I would say that this is not going to change as I have experienced first hand losing in basketball when the leader with odds 1.04 lost to the last place, we need to be able to choose a good team which this is also difficult. Sometimes when betting on non favorites I imagine that people see the h2h results and bet on a team who has valid good results, meaning they are in good form and have won most of their recent games.

Or lets just say that everything in sports on having that underdog wins or simply talking about upsets on which this could really that indeed happen. If favorites betting does have that bigger chance of winning then people will really be just that simply betting on it all the way but we do know that betting on sports doesnt really works on that way because there's no way that you can be able to make profits if you do just simply betting on favorites on which we know that winning percentage isnt known but if it turned out that it is really that giving out some good results into you then go ahead but honestly betting up on sports that you dont even know doesnt really give out any entertainment and really just that shows that you are really just that playing for the sake of money and not for fun and this is something which isnt really that recommended. You would be able to find out sooner or later that sticking with favorites doesnt really give out any assurance that you can be able to make profits with it and its not something enjoyable if you will be having this kind of approach.

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Betting on both favorites and underdogs, we've got threads in here now and those are good discussions out there. So, as a bettor, we should analyze each of the bets we make because both can be profitable in our own methods but sometimes there really are times that they are not. It only means that we have to take our chances for both of them and learn something for every bet that we make because it won't be the same for most of us.

Quote from: Findingnemo on Today at 12:42:15 PM

There's gamblers approach of a bet and there's fanatic way of approaching a game, the later is always the best.

That's right, a fanatic way is betting no matter what the odds are as long as you bet for them.

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Approaching a game from neutral perspective will give us the best assesment of the team that's likely going to win but we have to think practical too, people bet on the sports which they love and when they do they have favourites too. So when their favourite team is playing they will be always tempted to bet on them which may lead to loss. There's gamblers approach of a bet and there's fanatic way of approaching a game, the later is always the best.

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Quote from: mirakal on Today at 03:56:30 AM

Odds are somewhat tricky, and there is no assurance. Because if all the favorite teams win, nobody will choose to bet on the underdog. But the real situation says that both the underdog and favorite have the chance to win.

It is just the same in other sports. Odds couldn't say who is going to win until the game ends. That is why I don't rely on odds but rather check their performance.

And it tells us that winning in gambling is not because we choose the right team but just luck. That is how gambling works.

I read a study that showed that in modern conditions bookmakers guess the outcome with an accuracy of up to 1%. The problem is that this is for a huge number of games and not for a separate unique game that cannot end with the result "team A won 40%, and team B won 60%" since there can only be one outcome. It is pointless to draw conclusions based on the outcome of one game; we need to take into account a much larger number of results.

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

You don't have to bet on your favourite if you are not so sure that they will win the match, choosing favourite over winning mean you don't gamble to make money, something that fits someone who is just gambling for fun, for those gamblers who are hellbent on making money only they will gladly bet on the most hated side if they are sure that the side will win, and this my friend is what gambling is all about.

The choice is yours, do it for favourite/fan base or do it to make money, in the end this won't determine if you will win or not, we all win and lose at some point, get used to it.

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Quote from: Oshosondy on Today at 04:47:38 AM

People will prefer to bet on the teams they think would win. That is how betting is. If you bet otherwise, you will lose more money. The odds are set not to favour bettors.

It was just some few days ago we discussed about betting on underdogs. I remember the opinions on people when they wrote that it wasn't a good decision to make bets on underdogs. Some of you aren't betting on the underdogs, it means you're betting on the favorites then. Well, the OP is another reason see that it is not about the underdogs or the favorites. It is this simple as you have said - bet on the team that you think will win and not on the underdogs or favourites.

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

It is hard to get into what's actually profitable because this is sports and games are sometimes both predictable and unpredictable.

That's why if there are some underdogs that could make a twist and turn into the event of the game. There are those that are expected to get with the results as follows from what has been predicted.

But most likely, these favorites have the bigger chance of winning and the bookies know that. As said, not all the time they are correct.

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Basically, betting on a non-seeded team gives the hope of getting a big win. But, at the same time, of course, a gambler needs great courage to choose a non-seeded team. Because after all, even though the bettor does an analysis in such a way and also, sometimes instinct says to choose a non-seeded team, but if the bettor does not have the courage to do so then in the end the bettor will still choose the seeded team, or skip the bet.

Thus, to be in the minority in such cases is certainly difficult if you do not have the courage to go against the trend, and even if the bettor insists on choosing the non-seeded team, then it is also possible that the bet is low amount. After all, in soccer such results often occur but still, it is very rare to really focus on picking non-seeded teams. Although indeed, continuing to choose seeded teams also does not always provide victory, but that's what gambling is like, no one can really guarantee to provide consistent wins for the long term.

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Quote from: mak013 on Today at 06:02:42 AM

I even don`t care who is favorite. I have a strategy[...]

I mean, I do care but, I kinda like find it really fascinating to see a huge fan base debating on what and what not to bet on... TBH, I really had to look up for the difference between NFL and rugby as a sport... I suck in sports aside football.
How does your strategies work/ affect the outcome of the games in your favour if I may ask? Lol

Quote from: Mia Chloe on Today at 11:02:53 AM

Stats actually don't lie but for the case of gambling they can fail too.

I love how the system is run; not essentially by whatever stat was recorded in the previous games, but by how motivated the players are to win.
I can't just get my mind off the fact that most people would stake everything in them, on a team (Which I assume would be their favorite) over a team that's obviously going to win.

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Gamblers bet on underdogs because the odds are attractive. It looks obvious to bet on the favorite for some, but fact is that it's unprofitable to bet solely on favorites, because they also lose, and their odds are bad for gamblers. The most important thing is to identify when to not go for the favorite.

That is, when the underdog has realistic chances of winning, despite the bookmakers not giving them too much credit. When it happens, gamblers take advantage of the high odds and go for it.

However, there isn't a magical formula. Risks are always present, and gamblers still hope to be lucky, while trying to improve their intuitive skills at its maximum.

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I don't bet on super brawl but looking at the stats and odds, there's no much difference between the two teams. Instead of calling the eagles an underdog, I'd say it's a fierce rival that won the game. If you want to talk of an underdog, talk about the game between Plymouth and Liverpool. Where Plymouth was given 14.70 odd, and they went ahead to beat liverpool with 1.18 odd. Like I did said in the other thread, betting on underdogs is risky but it could be worth taking some times.

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Quote from: mak013 on Today at 06:02:42 AM

I even don`t care who is favorite. I have a strategy, i research event before betting, i watch odds. If everything is ok - i bet and it doesn`t matter who is favorite.
PS. And i try to avoid cup games - it can surprise. Right like in your example.

Basically everyone has their methods and resolve when it comes to gambling. Because gambling is based solely on luck some persons actually don fancy the idea of calling up a strategy and still it could work for them too. Stats actually don't lie but for the case of gambling they can fail too.

Quote from: freedomgo on Today at 06:29:17 AM

That seems odd because if you're consistently betting on sports, you'll know whether you're backing the favorites or the underdogs. Sure, everyone has their own strategy, but it's important to know which side you're on since the odds matter. So, you've got a strategy, but I find it a bit strange.

You will hardly find a gambler with or without strategy that doesn't have a favourite team especially if they practice sports betting the most. There is a very high chance you will bet your team to win in most games too.

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Quote from: kotajikikox on February 09, 2025, 10:23:45 PM

With NFL 59 ending with the score of 40-22 in favor of the Eagles, to say that it was impressive as it was shocking would be an understatement. Kansas City Chiefs is the two time defending champion which is why many probably have betted on the Chiefs as they went as the favorites. The other day I saw someone post about betting only on the underdogs and how it would not be profitable over the long run but the recent superbowl has shown how sometimes the favorite is not always going to win.

The eagles were determined scoring 24-0 before halftime. Anyone betted on The Eagles? If you have, what are your reasons for betting on a team that is not the favorite and how can it be applied to other sports matches as well?

Everybody got their favorite teams to beat, but looking forward on their effectivity and efficiency doesn't have to be reliable and 100% rest assured. Gambling on your best team has a lot of diversion on scores, so much better to have your alternative bets before it's too late. Losses tend to happen as errors accumulate during each game, that's why we need to look at to different sides of the story and don't just rely with one instances. Underdogs might bring unexpected surprises, so you better prepare for that to happen because its reality.

Topic: Betting on favorites. not always effective (Read 329 times)