It only matters when BFL gets their shipment of chips in. They said it would take 100 days for the chip order. That means they needed to order in late June to get them by the last day in September. That also assumes that it won't be late, like every other thing BFL has attempted.
I doubt they will get the chips by September, but it is possible.
According to bcp19, BFL would have to assemble at least 100,000 devices before sept 30 (since bcp19 believes that BFL has 7PH/s of pre-orders). BFL has said that they can do 300 units per day max. It would take 334 days to process 100,000 units at that rate which means that BFL could not finish their backlog by September. So either bcp19 is way way off in his estimate of BFL pre-orders. Or he doesn't believe they could ship all their pre-orders by Sept 30 (would require shipping 2800 units a day).
I never said 100,000 devices, your lies are getting larger by the day. You still cannot live in reality.
Yes actually you did. Your math says 100,000 devices. 70,000 orders you said. 100GH per order average you said. 7 PH/s total you said. According to the distribution on your data set at
http://bfl.ptz.ro that works out to over 100,000 devices.
Pre-orders stopped April 5th. You seem to think they need to catch up with everything. Reality check.
April 1st if you count when BFL claims they shipped their first device. But we are talking
backlog, not just "pre-orders".
You also discount refunds and upgrades.
You said 7PH/s
and risingContinue your delusions, I enjoy the laughs.
Guess you didn't take any math courses at MIT huh?
Once again, the 7ph was an ESTIMATE of the TOTAL ORDERBOOK before refunds were calculated. You have this insane need to cut and paste snippets out of context as if they are facts, yet you are still wrong.
Backpedaling from the 7PH/s you were so vehemently defending in other threads already? How many refunds could there be? You claimed there was a massive set of mini-rig orders operating in stealth. Surely they didn't ask for refunds?
*I* said pre-order, YOU said backlog. Semantics, since they mean the same thing in regards to the shipping comment.
Nope. The thread says backlog. You asked to define backlog. Your original post said orders. Only now are you saying "pre-orders".
Still, TOTAL ORDERBOOK. GUESTIMATE.
And again, you are childish AND purile.
Still backpedaling. Did you finally realize that 7PH/s is a ludicrous figure? Do you want to change it?
You seem to know how to make an estimate, let's here yours then. You keep telling me what I am doing wrong, show me what is right. I cannot accept your assertions any longer until I see YOUR mathematical proof. Get your pen and paper going. Stop denegrating others and PROVE you are right. You have ALL the infomation you need on that website. I am waiting.
I have given you mathematical proof that your assertions of a 7PH/s orderbook (refunds and cancellations remove people from the order book FYI, you may want to be pedantic about something else) are inconsistent with the rest of your opinions. It is also inconsistent with BFL's opinions about their ability to ship and their completion date. BFL talks about clearing their backlog. This thread talks about clearing backlog. You are the only one talking about "pre-orders" now.
Here are your original words:
"
2) I did a breakdown in a previous thread I cannot find ATM. Worked out to an average .1TH per BFL order and ~70k orders using the ~4900 known orders.
3) Refunds were not taken into account due to lack of information."
from
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2996768Orders. Not pre-orders.
