Topic: BFL 30GH delivered (Read 4576 times)

one more example

a roulette wheel pays 35-1 odds on a number bet.  usually there are 38 spots to bet.  Pretty even odds, enough vig for the house to make money.

now, if same wheel pays 10-1 odds it is a terrible bet even if you win 5 times in a row...  bad bet, good results

same wheel pays 100-1 odds it is a great bet even if you lose 5 times in a row... good bet, bad results


do not factor in the results on evaluating the bet.  You do not have control after placing the bet. That is all you can be judged on.


you understand now??

It's interesting this idea of correct moves (if it were a poker game I might agree). I think we have to look at motives as well. I for example placed a small BFL order about 2 months before they stopped selling FPGA - got my 5 units and have cleared ~9000 USD from selling coin they've made (in the last 14 months). I didn't hold any bitcoin (which I regret) simply selling it on a set schedule or whenever I thought the price was good. Except for the bitcoin I used to purchase sc upgrades for my fpga units.

From my perspective, skipping avalon (and asic miner) were wise choices on my part. At this point, with my FPGA stuff about to be upgraded (just 2 more weeks   ) I've got ROI of 300%. I also have the side effect of spending btc I mined to purchase pairs of nice video cards for my 3 computers, as well as a gpu rig (and that expense isn't in the numbers I've given here) I later sold the rig, and kept 3 7950s to use on the computers.

All told it's been a fun hobby over the past year... My total investment was less than 3500 USD.

As for your 'luck' in not purchasing avalon batch 3... I chose not to buy avalon because the tech was inferior and I didn't want to support it. I chose not to buy asicminer because the business model would result in a centralization of (imo) too much hash rate in one location if the succeeded (and I think it's bad for bitcoin in general).

I think the mistake a lot of people make is looking at investing as some sort of game of chance, with odds and using hindsight to evaluate decisions. If they'd take a more classical view - everything changes. 10 month ROI is amazing by investment standards. Using standard batch buying and the concept of drawing your investments down... you can ROI much much faster that simply buying miners and waiting for them to earn themselves out.

An example of drawing down a hardware investment is what I did with my GPU rig. I laid out 1800 bucks for the entire system, 5x 7950. I mined with them for about 5 weeks... then I sold 4 of the 5 cards (moved 1 to an existing machine) The left me with ~300 UDS in profit. My timing was good, about a month after I sold them people we suddenly turning of GPUs for bitcoin mining.

You could follow the same strategy with any asic gear, evaluate what it's earnings should be over a shorter time period. Buy much more than you're 'going to keep' and then sell some of the hardware over time so you end up ROI'd after a shorter period of time... on the hardware you have left. It's called risk management.

Money well spent has been well earned.
Awesome card. Get your high end gaming on man.

See,there ARE other smart folks out there     With my 3.3GH of vid cards & my BFL FPGA included,I'm making .80 BTC per day 

I'll be shutting my cards down in 2 weeks & selling a few of em to get a GTX 780 

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16814130916

Now THATS ROI !!!!!!!!!! 

Love hearing this. I am in the same boat in that I paid for mine with funds from my initial BTC investment in the summer of 2011. To hear you're making .7 BTC a day is really cool.

1BTC=6.50$
you have 100BTC which you can
A. keep.
B.buy miner with

On one hand if BTC went down and 1BTC=1$

A.If you kept your 100 BTC  you are left with 100$.
B.If your miner did not mine 100BTC, but only 90 BTC altogether you are left with 90$.

both ways were bad and you lost money but still A was better than B



And on the other hand, if went up and 1 BTC=650USD ?

A.If you kept your 100 BTC  you have 65,000 USD
B.If your miner did not mine 100BTC, but only 90 BTC altogether you have 58,500 USD.

both ways were good and you earned money but still A was better than B


See?
It doesn't matter at all if BTC goes up or down.
It is all about how many BTC you can mine comparing to the amount of BTC you invested in the miner at the time of purchase.

Awesome to hear it.  Happy Mining!

Well,at the time,it was a good investment.BTC was $6 & I figured 30GH @ $650 was ok.

It still is a good deal,the device should make 100 BTC in about 200 days or less,if diff dosen't ramp up too quickly.

Personally,I nor anyone I know where able to predict the jump in BTC price would happen as soon as it did.I was thinking it would hit $100 by late 2014 or so.

But as far as ROI in dollars goes,it'll be 7-9 more days & its paid off  

Currently making .70 BTC per day  


BTW,I paid for my miner with BTC I mined since June 2011.My initial investment of $1000 has rolled over about 3 times at least  

Personally I would rather mine BTC than buy & hold,after ROI on miners is reached,each BTC costs me only the electricty to mine it.

If bitcoins go down, a miner might actually mine more, for example possibly other people might turn off their miners when bitcoin goes far down in value.

So having a miner instead of bitcoins can be a hedge against bitcoins going down in price. The more they go down the better chance there is that your miner will mine you more coins.

When bitcoins are going down, obtaining more bitcoins can help the total value of your collection of bitcoins to not go down so much.

To increase the value of your hoard of bitcoin you need the individual coins to go up in value or the number of coins you have to increase.

miners help the total number of coins you have to increase.

So it can seem to make some sense not to put all your wealth into bitcoins; putting some of it into bitcoin mining gear can seem reasonable.

When bitcoins dropped to $2 way back when, having a bunch of mining equipment instead of bitcoins probably seemed very good to some people.

-MarkM-

if you kept btc instead and don't sell till btc goes back to $1 then what??  you always sell at the top?  perhaps the buyer kept 70% of their btc as a hedge and used 30% for miners...  the 30% would represent higher risk/reward.  You can only base that decision at the time it was made.  Hindsight does not factor into it.  If you knew BFL were morons and still risk the btc then it was dumb move even if you got lucky...  if you did research and saw that they are solid company then it is good risk

what happens afterward is just second guessing.  only rate the move at the time it was made.

I decided in March that BFL were jackasses so I didn't place a minirig order.  I thought Avalon were good, but I didnt have btc for batch #3.   Hindsight says I am lucky that I didnt go for avalon batch #3.. but that doesn't mean the move was good.  It was lucky.  The correct move at that time was to risk on batch #3 from the data available..  but who knew they suck at handling problems and get lazy?

   

you are a clown....  if btc goes to $1 then he actually SAVED money then right?? when is you time of selling? when btc was $260 or now at $78? or can you predict next year's price?

A lot of people do not understand the difference between the probability of a result and the result itself. They see the result of a long shot coming in and say "See? I should have bet on it!!!". You can argue until you are blue in the face they shouldn't do it again and if they do it 100 times they will lose their shirt and they will never understand.

Finally! I hope your words will be more clear than mine, because I give up 

I actually figured out why so many people don't know how to calculate ROI for Bitcoin miners.
They don't believe that one can with certainty determine what a device is expected to produce in BTC at a certain difficulty. They are aware of "calculators" but do not understand why they work, nor do they trust them. They get hung up on luck, and trying to predict the future. They think calculating a devices expected return is black magic. So they don't do the math, and positive results are good luck and negative results are bad luck. They believe these things to be beyond human control.

For those who do not believe in magic:
Buying the miner is buying Bitcoin over time vs. buying the Bitcoin as a lump sum and holding it. Both are bets that the exchange rate will remain good or improve. Both are long bets on Bitcoin. It is possible to know with certainty which growth rates of difficulty will yield a positive return over a fixed time period and which ones will not.

Of course it is not possible to know at what rate the network will eventually grow at. However, you can build a graph of possible returns and look at what the network hash rate must do in order for an investment in mining equipment to generate a positive return. If the hash rate has to do very unlikely things (like shrink for 6 months) for your investment to generate a positive return, then you shouldn't buy the equipment. If you feel strongly about owning BTC, you should buy them from an exchange.

After the time has passed, you can know what the hash rate did. After the time has passed, you can with certainty know if buying Bitcoin over time was a better investment than buying it as a lump sum from an exchange. Beforehand you can know the probabilities of an investment paying off, like the odds at a blackjack table. Afterwards you know if a hand won or lost, but you can know beforehand if you should have bet on it or not.

I wish that was true, every time I receive a box from BFL I so eagerly look inside for a mug. I would really like one you know, but noooo, there is only that stupid Jalapeno inside.

Damn scammers...

I believe one or two come with every hardware order.  I know it was one with the Jalapeno for sure.  FPGA customers can say if this has always been the case.

I totally agree!


This whole argument started when I wrote this:




It is yet to determine if this is/was a great deal.
People here don't seem to realize that the only way of calculating the ROI
is if you minded more BTC that you could have just bought at the moment of buying the miner.
Why? because both options has the purpose of getting as much BTC as possible. One way could get you more than the other and one need to gamble.
Do you agree on that?

My point is that we don't know if OP did a great deal or not that's all....

This is not the same at all because BTC, oil and Apple are 3 different investment.
While buying BTC or buying a BTC miner is the same investment. investment in BTC.

Yep more or less. Its like saying you would've known the future outcome ahead of time, what simple math that is!