I arrived at this number from this quote by Josh on BFL forums:
Quote
Yes, it is... We only have around 6000 chips in the first batch, definitely not enough to get us into September, as the bulk of our orders are bunched up around June/July/August.
and using the formula of 1 chip per Jalapeno, 4 chips for little single, and 8 chips for SC single, and 200 chips for Minirig, combined with the info from the waitlist thread found here. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wait-list-bfl-sc-pre-order-information-monarch-orders-too-89685
Caveat: This estimate is the perfect scenario where every order is posted on the wait list and BFL recieves 6000 chips with no duds.
Obviously, less working chips and unreported orders will affect the cutoff order date negatively.