I have a feeling that some who ordered will get their order received after some others...and possibly in a way that will hurt their profitability.
Just saying...look at how many let downs we have had: MyBitcoin, Bitcoinica, etc...hacked exchanges...
Wouldn't be surprised...but I do know one thing....it won't affect bitcoin much.
Topic: BFL Labs just like Get-rich-quick-schemes (Read 5128 times)
Except the speed does matter. BFL simply does not have the resources to ship every current order that has been placed on the same date. Meaning no one entity will receive a large enough quantity to create an attack.
Edit: And my response is not to say you're incorrect. You (and the others) are completely correct in that it costs far less to gain 51% of the network hashrate, but the high level of accessibility is what increases the security. While BFL doesn't have millions of dollars in orders, they have enough that everyone will have a slice of the pie when ASIC hits. The point is to keep the pie in small slices instead of halves.
Edit: And my response is not to say you're incorrect. You (and the others) are completely correct in that it costs far less to gain 51% of the network hashrate, but the high level of accessibility is what increases the security. While BFL doesn't have millions of dollars in orders, they have enough that everyone will have a slice of the pie when ASIC hits. The point is to keep the pie in small slices instead of halves.
ChanceCoats123,
The speed doesn't matter. It is the total cost for the 51%. Do you think really think BFL got 7.8-13 million in orders? To be twice secure as before they would need to sell 15-26 million in gear!
My bet is probably closer to 1 - 2 million.
The part that would blow your mind is if you take out their profit margin of just guessing 50% then how much money would it take a few to do a 51% attack?
The speed doesn't matter. It is the total cost for the 51%. Do you think really think BFL got 7.8-13 million in orders? To be twice secure as before they would need to sell 15-26 million in gear!
My bet is probably closer to 1 - 2 million.
The part that would blow your mind is if you take out their profit margin of just guessing 50% then how much money would it take a few to do a 51% attack?
They are "sharing" their products with us for the cheap because they will make large amounts of money from the initial sales. People will then realize that a single jalapeno sounded great when the difficulty was 1.7M, but oh no, I need more hashing power now that the network is over 200Thash. Hell they are only $150, let's get a couple more!
Before we know it, the ROI time will be years and no one will be earning well. On the brightside, bitcoin as a currency will be very secure.
Before we know it, the ROI time will be years and no one will be earning well. On the brightside, bitcoin as a currency will be very secure.
How is it more secure? Going to take the less money to buy 50%+ as it always has in your 200Thash scenario. 6 million. (30k for 1TH box)
Current speed of 13THash using $600-1,000 a gh is 7.8 million to 13 million. (best FPGA to new GPUs)
Total bitcoin market cap is: 67.13 million http://blockchain.info/stats
I'm not sure who you're agreeing with, but check my response to his post. It is theoretically easier to gain 51%+, but with all the orders already placed, the network hashrate will be exponentially larger by the time anyone has enough of the ASIC chips to attempt an attack on the network.
They are "sharing" their products with us for the cheap because they will make large amounts of money from the initial sales. People will then realize that a single jalapeno sounded great when the difficulty was 1.7M, but oh no, I need more hashing power now that the network is over 200Thash. Hell they are only $150, let's get a couple more!
Before we know it, the ROI time will be years and no one will be earning well. On the brightside, bitcoin as a currency will be very secure.
Before we know it, the ROI time will be years and no one will be earning well. On the brightside, bitcoin as a currency will be very secure.
How is it more secure? Going to take the less money to buy 50%+ as it always has in your 200Thash scenario. 6 million. (30k for 1TH box)
Current speed of 13THash using $600-1,000 a gh is 7.8 million to 13 million. (best FPGA to new GPUs)
Total bitcoin market cap is: 67.13 million http://blockchain.info/stats
Given BFL's penchant for big promises, who's to say they haven't committed to a decent sized wafer buy to get a decent deal on the up front costs? Pre-order money + possible mysterious investor money could fund development and a deposit on the wafer order.
I agree though, best odds are a FPGA conversion funded by hype.
I agree though, best odds are a FPGA conversion funded by hype.
Older process ASIC wouldn't be $10 million, seems $500000 to $1 million would be enough to produce a 130nm - 65nm ASIC.
nope.btw 180nm is the state of the are for small volumes (Like a single 9 wafer run)
Older process ASIC wouldn't be $10 million, seems $500000 to $1 million would be enough to produce a 130nm - 65nm ASIC.
nope.btw 180nm is the state of the are for small volumes (Like a single 9 wafer run)
130nm is premium and anything beyond that strictly high volume.
Get over it... no matter how you want it you are not getting full customs, those will be fpga mask transfers like already discussed.
Older process ASIC wouldn't be $10 million, seems $500000 to $1 million would be enough to produce a 130nm - 65nm ASIC. It's a risky endeavor though because the costs can really add up if there are a lot of design revisions. Wondering now if we will see the first custom SHA256 chips as translations of FPGA designs, cost and performance would still be a head above straight FPGA.
lol, yeah right. So in effect that anonymous investor is all supplying you with cheap asics.
dream on!
dream on!
except the volume is nowhere near 10mil USD.
$10m to fund the research and development for producing an ASIC system.
except the volume is nowhere near 10mil USD.
I'm surprised no one has pointed this out yet (since I'm hardly an expert) BUT...
People wonder why BFL doesn't just mine instead of sell? The answer is simple. There is a very large up front development cost to producing the first Mini-Rig "SC". Some other thread estimated 10 million dollars to create the ASIC design.
There is tremendous business risk to investing $10m and then using it to mine, since the difficulty is sure to go up and BTC will go down significantly if the sudden appearance of a large amount of hashing resources "spooks" the network.
On the other hand, BFL business model of announcing powerful machines many months ahead of time and taking pre-orders is ideally suited to the large R&D cost of developing the rig. It is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. Miners anticipating the future appearance of big hashing power have no choice but to either pre-order the devices or plan to exit the mining market.
If BFL can deliver as promised they are following the most logical course.
People wonder why BFL doesn't just mine instead of sell? The answer is simple. There is a very large up front development cost to producing the first Mini-Rig "SC". Some other thread estimated 10 million dollars to create the ASIC design.
There is tremendous business risk to investing $10m and then using it to mine, since the difficulty is sure to go up and BTC will go down significantly if the sudden appearance of a large amount of hashing resources "spooks" the network.
On the other hand, BFL business model of announcing powerful machines many months ahead of time and taking pre-orders is ideally suited to the large R&D cost of developing the rig. It is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. Miners anticipating the future appearance of big hashing power have no choice but to either pre-order the devices or plan to exit the mining market.
If BFL can deliver as promised they are following the most logical course.
Exactly. It's almost like the anticipated rate doubling when the block reward halves. It will more than likely fulfill itself. People expecting the market to rise will buy more coins, which raises the market. LOL
I'm surprised no one has pointed this out yet (since I'm hardly an expert) BUT...
People wonder why BFL doesn't just mine instead of sell? The answer is simple. There is a very large up front development cost to producing the first Mini-Rig "SC". Some other thread estimated 10 million dollars to create the ASIC design.
There is tremendous business risk to investing $10m and then using it to mine, since the difficulty is sure to go up and BTC will go down significantly if the sudden appearance of a large amount of hashing resources "spooks" the network.
On the other hand, BFL business model of announcing powerful machines many months ahead of time and taking pre-orders is ideally suited to the large R&D cost of developing the rig. It is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. Miners anticipating the future appearance of big hashing power have no choice but to either pre-order the devices or plan to exit the mining market.
If BFL can deliver as promised they are following the most logical course.
Plenty of people have thought of that, read some other BFL threads (dozens available to choose from). People wonder why BFL doesn't just mine instead of sell? The answer is simple. There is a very large up front development cost to producing the first Mini-Rig "SC". Some other thread estimated 10 million dollars to create the ASIC design.
There is tremendous business risk to investing $10m and then using it to mine, since the difficulty is sure to go up and BTC will go down significantly if the sudden appearance of a large amount of hashing resources "spooks" the network.
On the other hand, BFL business model of announcing powerful machines many months ahead of time and taking pre-orders is ideally suited to the large R&D cost of developing the rig. It is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. Miners anticipating the future appearance of big hashing power have no choice but to either pre-order the devices or plan to exit the mining market.
If BFL can deliver as promised they are following the most logical course.
I'm surprised no one has pointed this out yet (since I'm hardly an expert) BUT...
People wonder why BFL doesn't just mine instead of sell? The answer is simple. There is a very large up front development cost to producing the first Mini-Rig "SC". Some other thread estimated 10 million dollars to create the ASIC design.
There is tremendous business risk to investing $10m and then using it to mine, since the difficulty is sure to go up and BTC will go down significantly if the sudden appearance of a large amount of hashing resources "spooks" the network.
On the other hand, BFL business model of announcing powerful machines many months ahead of time and taking pre-orders is ideally suited to the large R&D cost of developing the rig. It is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. Miners anticipating the future appearance of big hashing power have no choice but to either pre-order the devices or plan to exit the mining market.
If BFL can deliver as promised they are following the most logical course.
People wonder why BFL doesn't just mine instead of sell? The answer is simple. There is a very large up front development cost to producing the first Mini-Rig "SC". Some other thread estimated 10 million dollars to create the ASIC design.
There is tremendous business risk to investing $10m and then using it to mine, since the difficulty is sure to go up and BTC will go down significantly if the sudden appearance of a large amount of hashing resources "spooks" the network.
On the other hand, BFL business model of announcing powerful machines many months ahead of time and taking pre-orders is ideally suited to the large R&D cost of developing the rig. It is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy. Miners anticipating the future appearance of big hashing power have no choice but to either pre-order the devices or plan to exit the mining market.
If BFL can deliver as promised they are following the most logical course.
Some thing I wonder:
ASICs said to use 1/4 of the power and provide 10 times performance than same size FPGA
Now a FPGA miner using 80W to generate 800MH/s
Same size of ASIC will use only 20W, while generate 8GH/s, devide by 2, still use 10W to generate 4GH/s. I don't understand how come a USB port can power 10W equipment?
ASICs said to use 1/4 of the power and provide 10 times performance than same size FPGA
Now a FPGA miner using 80W to generate 800MH/s
Same size of ASIC will use only 20W, while generate 8GH/s, devide by 2, still use 10W to generate 4GH/s. I don't understand how come a USB port can power 10W equipment?
Yep, they can't
BFL is overexagerating, AGAIN. I'd rather wait for some reputable ASIC companies instead of BFL.
So maybe the Jalapenos will need a power cord rather than just running off of USB. And maybe they will do 3 Gh instead of 3.5. Not a big deal IMO.
But what if that power chord draws in 50W of power?
And what if they do 2 GH instead? What about 1.6 GH?
Right not this big of a deal
For $160, and the device does 2Gh/s or even 1.6Gh/s - not a big deal at all!
That smokes anything you can buy still.
I don't expect the 40Gh/s Single to do 40Gh/s at all. If it does 20Gh/s it still worthwhile.
Some thing I wonder:
ASICs said to use 1/4 of the power and provide 10 times performance than same size FPGA
Now a FPGA miner using 80W to generate 800MH/s
Same size of ASIC will use only 20W, while generate 8GH/s, devide by 2, still use 10W to generate 4GH/s. I don't understand how come a USB port can power 10W equipment?
ASICs said to use 1/4 of the power and provide 10 times performance than same size FPGA
Now a FPGA miner using 80W to generate 800MH/s
Same size of ASIC will use only 20W, while generate 8GH/s, devide by 2, still use 10W to generate 4GH/s. I don't understand how come a USB port can power 10W equipment?
Yep, they can't
BFL is overexagerating, AGAIN. I'd rather wait for some reputable ASIC companies instead of BFL.
So maybe the Jalapenos will need a power cord rather than just running off of USB. And maybe they will do 3 Gh instead of 3.5. Not a big deal IMO.
But what if that power chord draws in 50W of power?
And what if they do 2 GH instead? What about 1.6 GH?
Right not this big of a deal
Some thing I wonder:
ASICs said to use 1/4 of the power and provide 10 times performance than same size FPGA
Now a FPGA miner using 80W to generate 800MH/s
Same size of ASIC will use only 20W, while generate 8GH/s, devide by 2, still use 10W to generate 4GH/s. I don't understand how come a USB port can power 10W equipment?
ASICs said to use 1/4 of the power and provide 10 times performance than same size FPGA
Now a FPGA miner using 80W to generate 800MH/s
Same size of ASIC will use only 20W, while generate 8GH/s, devide by 2, still use 10W to generate 4GH/s. I don't understand how come a USB port can power 10W equipment?
Yep, they can't
BFL is overexagerating, AGAIN. I'd rather wait for some reputable ASIC companies instead of BFL.
So maybe the Jalapenos will need a power cord rather than just running off of USB. And maybe they will do 3 Gh instead of 3.5. Not a big deal IMO.
About the power usage stats and such, remember that the FPGA single was also supposed to push 1000mhash+ @ only 20 watts.
Some thing I wonder:
ASICs said to use 1/4 of the power and provide 10 times performance than same size FPGA
Now a FPGA miner using 80W to generate 800MH/s
Same size of ASIC will use only 20W, while generate 8GH/s, devide by 2, still use 10W to generate 4GH/s. I don't understand how come a USB port can power 10W equipment?
ASICs said to use 1/4 of the power and provide 10 times performance than same size FPGA
Now a FPGA miner using 80W to generate 800MH/s
Same size of ASIC will use only 20W, while generate 8GH/s, devide by 2, still use 10W to generate 4GH/s. I don't understand how come a USB port can power 10W equipment?
Yep, they can't
BFL is overexagerating, AGAIN. I'd rather wait for some reputable ASIC companies instead of BFL.
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