I don't think there will be a 'downfall' to BFL. I think they will achieve everything they set out to achieve and probably more than they expected to.
Your statement above is already a fail.
They missed their October, Nov, Dec ... April dates for shipping.
They missed their specs. Mini Rig has no real solution (their supposed cases are too small)
just to name a few things they set out to achieve and failed.
So no your expectations are already in the clouds and unrealistic when it comes to BFL.
Plain and simple.
I don't think pirateat40 had a 'downfall' either. His operation had a distinct endpoint although it was not predictable exactly when it would happen.
When I say 'downfall', I mean only that I don't believe that the BFL operators will end up in jail or even find it necessary to undergo clawbacks for a significant fraction of their take.
Plain and simple.