3. "BFL, and other ASIC manufacturers, are going to see sales diminishing as difficulty rises throughout the year 2013."
Analysis, based on what, quote/site references?
Common sense... let me spell it out since you're a couple clowns short of a circus:
1. People order ASICs
2. Difficulty goes up because people order ASICs
3. Less people buy ASICs because they are less profitable
4. ASIC manufacturers sales decrease
5. ASIC manufacturers improve their products and release 2nd generation to maintain/increase profit.
It's not rocket science...
[DISCLAIMER: This post is nothing but pure speculation on what may happen in the ASIC market]
I don't want to get in between your spat but this is how I see it.
If you look at the basic graphic above, these are all number I pulled out of thin air. But they should approximate the gradually decreasing returns. (This is why it may take up to 2 years for ROI, or less if you use a higher end rig.)
Lets say you earn $100 in January. The longer you keep the rig, the more profits you make. What most people realize so far is that they gradually reap less benefits from the device each additional month (due to increasing difficulty). Short of some miraculous events, this is pretty normal and predictable.
Each month that a person owns a rig, they make back some of their invested cash. It isn't until they come out even (made back all the cash that they spent) that they will begin to draw out profits from the device.
Lets go through a few simple scenarios:
A) Lets say a vendor wishes to introduce a "GEN 2 ASIC" in September 2013.*
Problem of the Vendor: They have to lower their [GEN 1 ASIC] price in order to sell it. Otherwise, they must sell Gen 2 at
an even higher price. (possible but unlikely) This is problematic for current owners of GEN 1 equipment. While their equipment(s) value is logically going down the longer they own and use it. Their resale value is also going down.
Prospective buyers in the gray market (Bitcointalk.org for example) are not going to be willing to pay 100% of the purchase price. Logically, prospective are going to want to pay 90% for a $1299 mining rig in January. Lets say 75% in March. 55% in June. 40% in August.
The valuation of an ASIC GEN 1 mining rig will (extremely likely) not be $1299 in September Probably less than $500 or less if an owner is unlucky.. It will probably have devalued enough that the only people who will want to buy it form current owner are the ones who are willing to sell their rigs at dirt cheap prices. (Keep in mind, a rig in september 2013 is producing alot less $$ than a rig in Janurary 2013 due to difficulty and hashing power on the BTC network. So its value is much lower by then.)
So people who want their cash back
fast and don't want to wait
another year while the investment pays off will have to Sell it to someone else very cheaply.
---------------------------
What happens though if some Vendor cuts their price on their current GEN 1 stock?
Example? :
https://forums.butterflylabs.com/pre-sales-questions/354-bfl-price-guarantee-4.htmlWell, that forces the hands of current owners of ASIC GEN 1 equipment. Say the price is cut from $1299 to $499. They (individual sellers) will have to
sell at an even lower price than they originally intended in the Gray Market. They won't make back their investment. They will actually lose money in the process.
Note: Why would a Gray Market buyer...buy used equipment at near retail price from an individual seller trying to offload their rig? (They won't)
If they want to buy Gen 2. They will have to take the loss and pull even more cash out of their pocket to pay for the GEN 2 rig. (Assuming it is priced at $1299....)
So CoinHoarder is making a pretty (as he said) obvious point. It is not rocket science.
The only people who will make positive returns are the people in the Gray Market who short change the average seller whom will want to get rid of their (marginal profit) rigs.
As they pick them up cheaply, they can hoard rigs and scale it to make a profit at a steep discount. (these folks will effectively resolve "the price problem" of ASICs.)
Just a few days at anything near current difficulty would just about cut ROI in half, and as you said it will scale. 
he's an idiot...............maybe with a Jalapeno,but with 60 GH,I figure 2-4 months MAX 
So 2 years still isn't bad..................
