In my opinion, BFL is decent option compared to their competition at the present moment. I know they've had issues in the past, but they fact that they are cranking out Jalapeno's is very encouraging.
Lets compare them to their competition:
1.) ASICMiner - The price of their blades and usb miners is a complete ripoff that will likely never earn back what the cost in BTC (cost over $400/GHs).
2.) KNCMiner - This company looks encouraging, but they still have a long way to go before they can ship a working product. I'd give them a 50/50 shot of shipping anything in 2013 (Cost of ~22$/GHs).
3.) Avalon - All you can do at the moment is buy the chips and hope you'll be able to turn them into a working miner in a timely fashion (assembled cost and delivery unknown, but Terrahash is selling for ~50$/GHs).
4.) BitFury - I haven't been following this company that closely because I don't feel comfortable ordering anything priced in BTC from Russia.
5.) BTC - Shipping Jalapeno's, huge backlog being worked off at about the rate of 1 month per week, cost of ~$50/GHs.
6.) Buying used ASICs secondhand is also a complete ripoff with prices of Avalons going for ~$500/GHs.
You can either buy 2 USB miners from ASICMiner (600 MHs) or a 7 GHs miner from BFL for 4 BTC. If the BFL Jalapeno ships in the next 2 to 4 months, which I think will happen due to their recent performance, there is a clear winner.
I understand that some folks with early pre-orders are pissed at BFL, but if one does the math and tries to take a truly unbiased view of the current ASICs landscape, BFL is not a bad option...
There is one problem with your calculations. If BFL delivers their entire backlog, that could add 200-300 TH/s to the hash rate. Tripling the hash rate (even before the Avalon/Klondike wave hits in Aug/Sept/Oct). That would cut returns for BFL single & mini-rig owners by one third. If BFL does not clear their backlog, you cannot get a device ordered today from them until they do. It inserts an large element of uncertainty.
ASICminer is just gouging because they can. Currently, they are the only ASIC company that will deliver an order you place today within a week.
Which is why I am saying....
If you don't have 400GH/s today, tomorrow you will be feeling the pain in a very sharp way.
I assumed the block solving would speed up with the extra ASIC's ...and they have, so the profit for me is up. But...that will only last a short time and then the profits are going to belly flop on concrete.
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The people who get BFL hardware today are going to have to invest everything they make into a new order. (or accept a meager bitcoin income)
Essentially (unless their order was large) they are going to be working for BFL. Funneling their own profits back into the company in one way or another. (Same is true if they went for Avalon or ASICMiner.)
The only way out of this is to get you hands on 10k right now and dump it on a company that can turn that into a 350Gh/s miner (or two).
If you are late to the rate race eventually it will dawn on people they are going to have a hard time staying in the race. It will be self evident in the near future. ASIC prices must come down or BitCoins must revalue at a very high rate. This remains a possibility.