BFLs ASIC == BTC doomsday? | Bitcointalksearch.org

mdude77

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Quote from: P_Shep on June 28, 2012, 08:50:41 PM

I'm really worried.

I don't know if my router will be able to cope with running 240GH/s worth of SC singles.

I'd be more worried about being able to recoup the cost in a reasonable amount of time, if ever.

M

P_Shep

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This is not OK.

I'm really worried.

I don't know if my router will be able to cope with running 240GH/s worth of SC singles.

ChanceCoats123

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The community honestly needs more people like you. Hell, even I'm just in it for the profit. I would love to do to help the network, but I just can't be throwing cash for the betterment of a crypto-currency. Undecided

BlackPrapor

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Quote from: ChanceCoats123 on June 28, 2012, 11:08:49 AM

Quote from: BlackPrapor on June 28, 2012, 03:06:29 AM

Bitcoin will survive past December 2012 if the majority of it's users are interested in it as a medium of exchange, not source of profit. If majority are miners, wanting to cover their costs ASAP, selling btc, then it's doomed to collapse. Find ways to promote Bitcoin in your area, and if everyone does that, we should be safe.

Here in lies the problem! 95% of miners don't mine because they genuinely want bitcoin to succeed and the collapse of fiat currency to follow... They mine because anyone with capital and the knowledge to run simple programs and manage hardware can more than double their investment by sitting on their ass!

When mining no longer provides reasonable ROI and profitably, we'll see a huge decrease in mining interest.

I won't care about btc profitability once I cover my costs. I want btc to survive and be a medium of exchange, not sourse for profit. I hope get the farm running on renewable energy, so when the profit runs out, the network will still be secure and fast at zero cost

)

ChanceCoats123

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Quote from: BlackPrapor on June 28, 2012, 03:06:29 AM

Bitcoin will survive past December 2012 if the majority of it's users are interested in it as a medium of exchange, not source of profit. If majority are miners, wanting to cover their costs ASAP, selling btc, then it's doomed to collapse. Find ways to promote Bitcoin in your area, and if everyone does that, we should be safe.

Here in lies the problem! 95% of miners don't mine because they genuinely want bitcoin to succeed and the collapse of fiat currency to follow... They mine because anyone with capital and the knowledge to run simple programs and manage hardware can more than double their investment by sitting on their ass!

When mining no longer provides reasonable ROI and profitably, we'll see a huge decrease in mining interest.

BlackPrapor

hero member

Activity: 628

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Bitcoin will survive past December 2012 if the majority of it's users are interested in it as a medium of exchange, not source of profit. If majority are miners, wanting to cover their costs ASAP, selling btc, then it's doomed to collapse. Find ways to promote Bitcoin in your area, and if everyone does that, we should be safe.

Fuzzy

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Quote from: Gomeler on June 27, 2012, 06:34:40 PM

Better hope BTC spikes in price. In the end this sort of advancement is just going to consolidate a great portion of hashing power into early adopter's hands.

I think the cutoff for "early adopters" will be the first block split. To think, half of ALL bitcoins to ever be mined will have been mined by the end of this year. And I doubt BFL will deliver any ASIC devices before new years.

ASIC will mark the commercialization of Bitcoin, as it is clearly growing, and investors are growing more confident and more bold. It will also be the end of of the "casual miner", but now that half the bitcoins will have been mined, they've had their time, so to speak, and can still buy the coins if they want to take part.

If anyone want's to mine casually, it will be time to move to another crypto-curreny.

Gomeler

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Quote from: Luceo on June 27, 2012, 12:49:37 AM

I'm not sure why you feel like making the entry cost to mining lower is going to drive less people to enter mining.

If current GPU and FPGA rigs/farms are shut off, difficulty will decrease and the profitability of mining will increase.

Your naiveté is amusing. You think that $150 jalapeno is going to generate any significant portion of BTC? If BFL is able to meet the demand and specifications there will be dozens of ASIC based Mini Rigs and hundreds of ASIC based singles. I agree that it is a big if, but, if they do then all of us with medium-large GPU farms are going to convert and the guys with a dinky $150 jalapeno will be left fighting over fractions of a BTC/day.

Better hope BTC spikes in price. In the end this sort of advancement is just going to consolidate a great portion of hashing power into early adopter's hands. I personally am playing the waiting game but I am eagerly watching for the first sign that it is time to dump my $500/month powerbill.

boonies4u

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Quote from: ChanceCoats123 on June 27, 2012, 12:58:04 AM

Quote from: Luceo on June 27, 2012, 12:49:37 AM

I'm not sure why you feel like making the entry cost to mining lower is going to drive less people to enter mining.

If current GPU and FPGA rigs/farms are shut off, difficulty will decrease and the profitability of mining will increase.

Low entry cost does not matter. In fact, that only means the network hash rate will grow even faster. My point is that people invest their money to make MORE imoney. If there is no money to be made from investing in bitcoin mining hardware (no matter how cheap), then people simply won't invest.

And that is true about the gpu and fpga miners... at least until everyone grabs a low power ASIC alternative. At that point the network hash rate will be adjusted to the increase in production except now there are more independent miners with proportionally less mining power because the entry cost is so low and every greedy bastard on the face of the internet wants a piece of the bitcoin pie. Since everyone has such a small proportion now, profitability will drop and no new investors join.

Bitcoin miners need people to hold value in the currency to net a profit. The transaction fees and 50 BTC rewards mean nothing if no one is there to trade them and believe they hold a value.

It's not about whether or not the miners will be able to make more money than their peers, it's whether or not mining will always be profitable or break-even in the long term. Which it should, for a VERY long time.

norulezapply

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Quote from: mdude77 on June 26, 2012, 07:23:07 PM

1 - BFL delivers on their promise

I stopped reading here.

We have nothing to worry about guys..

Qoheleth

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Spurn wild goose chases. Seek that which endures.

Quote from: Fjordbit on June 27, 2012, 01:17:58 AM

One other scenario to consider is viable quantum computing coming into being. If a 256qbit computer were made, then theoretically, it could churn out a solution every second regardless of the difficulty. In this case, most algorithms that run on GPUs and CPUs won't work.

There's no sub-exponential quantum algorithm for reversing SHA-256. Sure, Grover's algorithm reduces the work to the square root of what it was, but it's still exponential, and quantum computers are unlikely to "catch up" to Turing machines in that respect for a long time, even if a 256qubit computer that could execute Grover's algorithm on 2SHA256 was made.

In short, quantum computers will at best be another competing technology, and one with an uphill battle to achieve parity with ASICs.

Fjordbit

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firstbits.com/1kznfw

I think that ASIC is the bes tthing for bitcoin right now. For one thing, it defends again botnets.

But a more important advantage to me is that ASIC companies are now invested in BitCoin. We need more SIC companies, enough to make a voice. This voice is important because a major threat to bitcoin is the government passing legislation against it because of the blackmarket uses. The majority of volume in bitcoin is in USD, and if the american government passes a law against mining or trading in bitcoin, it could seriously cause issues for the network. Basically, it would need to be shifted to the darknet and exchanges would need to be drop cash in the mail. The inconvenience would cause the price to crumble. However, with devoted hardware companies, they can lobby to keep it legal. ATI will never go to bat for bitcoin, but BFL will because their business depends on it.

One other scenario to consider is viable quantum computing coming into being. If a 256qbit computer were made, then theoretically, it could churn out a solution every second regardless of the difficulty. In this case, most algorithms that run on GPUs and CPUs won't work.

ChanceCoats123

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Quote from: Luceo on June 27, 2012, 12:49:37 AM

I'm not sure why you feel like making the entry cost to mining lower is going to drive less people to enter mining.

If current GPU and FPGA rigs/farms are shut off, difficulty will decrease and the profitability of mining will increase.

Low entry cost does not matter. In fact, that only means the network hash rate will grow even faster. My point is that people invest their money to make MORE imoney. If there is no money to be made from investing in bitcoin mining hardware (no matter how cheap), then people simply won't invest.

And that is true about the gpu and fpga miners... at least until everyone grabs a low power ASIC alternative. At that point the network hash rate will be adjusted to the increase in production except now there are more independent miners with proportionally less mining power because the entry cost is so low and every greedy bastard on the face of the internet wants a piece of the bitcoin pie. Since everyone has such a small proportion now, profitability will drop and no new investors join.

Luceo

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Per aspera ad astra!

I'm not sure why you feel like making the entry cost to mining lower is going to drive less people to enter mining.

If current GPU and FPGA rigs/farms are shut off, difficulty will decrease and the profitability of mining will increase.

ChanceCoats123

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Quote from: Serge on June 26, 2012, 09:28:37 PM

snip...

currently bitcoin mining is in expanding and transitional mode, everyone investing into mining should realize that margins will only get tighter and at some point your new rigs will become obsolete.

So if bitcoin is currently expanding, and soon everyone's investments will no longer yield profits worth investing in (due too being obsolete), then won't bitcoin inevitably decline? Currently, there are folks investing large amounts of capital because profits can easily be made if you category plan your mining operation. But if profits cannot be made, very few people will invest and there will be large exodus of miners leaving the scene en masse.

Edit: Or, are you saying that by the time any technology for mining becomes obsolete (and this is inevitable), then there will be new profitable technology available? Because in that case, forget my first argument.

Luceo

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Per aspera ad astra!

Quote from: Fuzzy on June 26, 2012, 07:28:10 PM

It will definitely squeeze out the GPU and CPU miners, and put the majority of the bashing power in the hands of people who can afford the specialty mining hardware.

The CPU miners are already squeezed out by the GPU miners, which puts the majority of the hashing power in the hands of gamers and people who can afford mining hardware which they wouldn't otherwise buy.

The Jalapeno is far cheaper than most viable GPUs and serves as a way for the average Bitcoiner to join in mining and to secure the network.

mdude77

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Quote from: Serge on June 26, 2012, 09:28:37 PM

cutting off asics means bitcoin will never be able to grow out of "geeky currency". additionally there is no reason to change sha256 algo as it's backbone of bitcoin network security until something drastic happens with sha256 or network security.

another point,
GPU - highly inefficient in terms of power consumption
FPGA -transitional technology, it has never meant to be final solution
ASICs - is the only way to move forward, and even with ASICs, chip's effitiency will always be improving and there will be times when older generation chips may become obsolete and inefficient in future. but in my view only way to progress is building highly specialized and efficient tools - that's why i say Bitcoin project is moving in the right direction. and we are lucky that at least one company stepped up so far in actually developing ASICs

currently bitcoin mining is in expanding and transitional mode, everyone investing into mining should realize that margins will only get tighter and at some point your new rigs will become obsolete.

I agree with you. I just wish BFL had a better reputation. No way I'm risking that much BTC for something that may or may not deliver.

M

Serge

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cutting off asics means bitcoin will never be able to grow out of "geeky currency". additionally there is no reason to change sha256 algo as it's backbone of bitcoin network security until something drastic happens with sha256 or network security.

another point,
GPU - highly inefficient in terms of power consumption
FPGA -transitional technology, it has never meant to be final solution
ASICs - is the only way to move forward, and even with ASICs, chip's effitiency will always be improving and there will be times when older generation chips may become obsolete and inefficient in future. but in my view only way to progress is building highly specialized and efficient tools - that's why i say Bitcoin project is moving in the right direction. and we are lucky that at least one company stepped up so far in actually developing ASICs

currently bitcoin mining is in expanding and transitional mode, everyone investing into mining should realize that margins will only get tighter and at some point your new rigs will become obsolete.

dizzy1

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Quote from: Serge on June 26, 2012, 08:44:27 PM

development of bitcoin specialized hardware, ASICs = is a good sign that bitcoin moves in a right direction and is actually growing and expanding. a year ago it would have been considered a pipe dream what someone invests in producing specialized bitcoin chips and making them more or less affordable so soon, although obviously it is inevitable and only further proves that bitcoin technology is solid.
bitcoin ASICs mean that this digital currency experiment, this project can and will be taken seriously, it's growing out from kiddie, geeky hobby thing into a next level of mass adoption

if you want to cut off ASICs (which will not happen btw else the project doomed to fail) - you might as well dismiss all human and industrial progress so far and go back living in caves

How does cutting off asics doom bitcoin as a project to fail? Everyone who is mining has a vote in whether or not to allow asics to join the network. Speaking from my perspective as a gpu miner with cheap power, I don't want asics at the moment, especially only coming from one company. If everyone doesn't accept them then they won't happen.

Serge

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development of bitcoin specialized hardware, ASICs = is a good sign that bitcoin moves in a right direction and is actually growing and expanding. a year ago it would have been considered a pipe dream what someone invests in producing specialized bitcoin chips and making them more or less affordable so soon, although obviously it is inevitable and only further proves that bitcoin technology is solid.
bitcoin ASICs mean that this digital currency experiment, this project can and will be taken seriously, it's growing out from kiddie, geeky hobby thing into a next level of mass adoption

if you want to cut off ASICs (which will not happen btw else the project doomed to fail) - you might as well dismiss all human and industrial progress so far and go back living in caves

Topic: BFLs ASIC == BTC doomsday? (Read 7726 times)