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Topic: Bid Walls Melting (Read 2992 times)

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
January 09, 2012, 05:07:09 PM
#30
they are rebuilding and dwarfing the asks.
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
January 09, 2012, 05:01:55 PM
#29
Bid walls building, Ask walls melting.  17K BTC to $5.80, but only 3K to $6.50.  Looks like we are heading the other way.

How much can you really depend on the order book though?  It seems like most walls are not real - just ways to prime pricing in one direction or another.

If reflects sentiment, and so far it's been a good indicator of momentum for me.
It's a self-fulfilling prophecy if enough people use them as indicators...

As with any indicator.
legendary
Activity: 1400
Merit: 1005
January 09, 2012, 04:56:17 PM
#28
Bid walls building, Ask walls melting.  17K BTC to $5.80, but only 3K to $6.50.  Looks like we are heading the other way.

How much can you really depend on the order book though?  It seems like most walls are not real - just ways to prime pricing in one direction or another.

If reflects sentiment, and so far it's been a good indicator of momentum for me.
It's a self-fulfilling prophecy if enough people use them as indicators...
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
January 09, 2012, 04:54:17 PM
#27
Bid walls building, Ask walls melting.  17K BTC to $5.80, but only 3K to $6.50.  Looks like we are heading the other way.

How much can you really depend on the order book though?  It seems like most walls are not real - just ways to prime pricing in one direction or another.

If reflects trading momentum, and so far it's been a good indicator for me.
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
January 09, 2012, 04:41:34 PM
#26
Bid walls building, Ask walls melting.  17K BTC to $5.80, but only 3K to $6.50.  Looks like we are heading the other way.

How much can you really depend on the order book though?  It seems like most walls are not real - just ways to prime pricing in one direction or another.
hero member
Activity: 740
Merit: 500
Hello world!
January 09, 2012, 04:25:41 PM
#25
Up and down the prices go, I keep my coins, hoho-hoho!
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
January 09, 2012, 04:21:57 PM
#24
Bid walls building, Ask walls melting.  17K BTC to $5.80, but only 3K to $6.50.  Looks like we are heading the other way.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
January 09, 2012, 04:14:52 PM
#23
it's quite normal to see some corrections and they can start anytime, particularly when you saw a 350% rally in a matter of days or a couple of weeks like we saw from the bitcoin price low of 1.994 $ up to 7.22 $...

That is *exactly* why nobody should be surprised at how deep this correction might go, a drop 1/10th the size of the rally puts us as $4.70 (which would still be 235% up from the lows). I rarely, if ever short, but I just could't let this one go.

I am annoyed that I shorted at 6.25 before the rally to 7.25, and then backed out for a loss. If I make that back I'll be happy, any more and I'll be ecstatic, whilst filling up (unleveraged) on the way back down!
legendary
Activity: 1615
Merit: 1000
January 09, 2012, 03:24:43 PM
#22

Traditional TA can be handy, but Bayesian analysis is actually useful.

Science is your friend.

Do you have any experimental data on that?
legendary
Activity: 2100
Merit: 1000
January 09, 2012, 03:16:53 PM
#21
it's quite normal to see some corrections and they can start anytime, particularly when you saw a 350% rally in a matter of days or a couple of weeks like we saw from the bitcoin price low of 1.994 $ up to 7.22 $...
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
January 09, 2012, 01:58:13 PM
#20
That's a very familiar story.  This is actually my third attempt at trying to accumulate a nice long term position.  Twice now I've been in that same boat of thinking that it just can't go any lower, or thinking that there can't be a downward spike when someone puts in a huge sell order.  I'm still quite new to technical analysis, but I've seen several times where it looked like things were lining up well and it was time to accumulate, only to see the patterns disintegrate and go a completely different direction.

With my current position, I'm slowly reducing the leverage, bringing in more and more bitcoins to back it.  Leverage isn't necessarily a bad thing, but you really have to understand what you're doing.  You have to know what you're willing to lose (potentially everything) and at what price(s) you're going to be in trouble.  For me, and probably many others, the only way to truly learn those lessons is through the pain of loss.  No matter how much you read and analyze, you won't have that deep emotional drive to be cautious until you've lost hard.

Cheers to those to have lost and have the courage (and/or stupidity) to dust themselves off and give it another try!
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087
January 09, 2012, 01:31:26 PM
#19
I remember carefully accumulating gold on the dips in september, using leverage. By october, i'd lost more money than i care to remember, because hey its gold it can't possibly go down any further than this, opportunity of lifetime to load up cheap....

Day after day, I watched in disbelief as it made new low, after new low. I backed off and at the end of september the price looked like it had stabilised. I "knew" it was going back up, I loaded up again - too much leverage and as october unfolded, I started taking losses again. Who could this be... this is GOLD and the market is in turmoil, why isn't this unfathomable safe haven not outperforming in this market???

I sat out for a few weeks in november, I needed to recover. I was hurt badly, as december approached, everything was telling me this was a new base. So December I opened up long again... right into a downspike that took us right back down to 1500's again it was september all over again.

I figure this is it, the double bottom, just a retest of september.... but I'm low on funds I can't afford to take another hit so I sit it out. Wow, I made (was forced to!) make the right decision, even lower lows end of december.

The last 4 months have been the most harrowing, most hurtful, but probably the most useful months of my life. I've read all the stories about how the market can keep being irrational for longer than you think, but you never know just how hot the plate is until you touch it for yourself!

I'm still long on gold (unleveraged) for the long term, and that's how I am playing bitcoin. Trading on leverage on BTC is insane (for sure I am still gonna do it with my play money heh) but at least now I feel like I am ready for whatever it decides to do!

hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
January 09, 2012, 12:49:52 PM
#18
The BTC market price is resilient I will give you that. After every major dump off, we have spiked back up fairly strong.  Be interesting to see if we go back up past $7 again today.

I really hope this is the case.  I've been trying to carefully accumulate, but I have to admit my purchases had an emotional element of "I don't want to miss out," and that drove me to leverage more than I should have.  This morning's drop down to $6.12 brought me very close to maintenance minimums and scared the crap out of me.  Hard reminder that I really need to be cautious.  This is still a very small and volatile market.
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
January 09, 2012, 11:31:25 AM
#17

maybe the giant leap to $7 was smart money manipulating the market for a pump and dump scheme, but what happened to all the talk about CES on Tuesday and the word 'Bitcoin' on people's TV when that show airs? stop being so moody Tongue the only thing that happened between today and last night was one giant dump. the market seems to be rebounding alright... the dump took us lower than $6 and the market absorbed it back into a healthy $6-$7 range, with 10k to $6 and almost 25k to $5.80. a correction was overdue anyway.

The BTC market price is resilient I will give you that. After every major dump off, we have spiked back up fairly strong.  Be interesting to see if we go back up past $7 again today.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
January 09, 2012, 11:23:46 AM
#16
I smell mania. That's a down-signal for me, because it only pays for bids until things go sideways for the first time.

We had almost 2 months of rallies. A step down wouldn't hurt. Another instant rally would take us back into bubble territory, and what's the point of that? Everybody has made this experience by now, it's unlikely to repeat itself.

this is so silly. the indicators were all bullish. we had an ascending triangle, bouncing off of the wall at $7.20 for days. nothing happened due to low weekend volume, one guy got spooked and dumped coins down to sub $6.90, which started panic sells and more giant dumps. Sure, we needed a correction but we could have gotten over the resistance at $7.20 and sailed to the next level before this happened easily. Notice how the cheap coins were gobbled up instantly? We won't see prices <$6.00, we're on our way up, and since the correction happened early I wouldn't be surprised if we sail to $10 before another major correction.

I wish I could feel your bullish optimism, and that we could rally past $7.20.

But these middle of the night dump offs have me thinking this is more of a Pump and Dump scenario.

maybe the giant leap to $7 was smart money manipulating the market for a pump and dump scheme, but what happened to all the talk about CES on Tuesday and the word 'Bitcoin' on people's TV when that show airs? stop being so moody Tongue the only thing that happened between today and last night was one giant dump. the market seems to be rebounding alright... the dump took us lower than $6 and the market absorbed it back into a healthy $6-$7 range, with 10k to $6 and almost 25k to $5.80. a correction was overdue anyway.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
January 09, 2012, 11:16:49 AM
#15
Yes, it may indeed be the correction many have been expecting...

Gotta' love the optimism -- yes, it's only a correction... let's just wait it out, and then BUY, BUY, BUY!  Roll Eyes
It's just not true that Smart Money simply decided to take another stab at unsuspecting bitcoin speculators.

I am optimistic as in the long run it appears that bitcoin will climb in price based on TA. Corrections and panic/manipulated sell offs come with the territory.

Who is to say that TA was not concocted by the Smart Money as well?
It can be said that in a small market like BTCex, such tactic is a no-brainer.
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
January 09, 2012, 11:11:25 AM
#14
Yes, it may indeed be the correction many have been expecting...

Gotta' love the optimism -- yes, it's only a correction... let's just wait it out, and then BUY, BUY, BUY!  Roll Eyes
It's just not true that Smart Money simply decided to take another stab at unsuspecting bitcoin speculators.

I am optimistic as in the long run it appears that bitcoin will climb in price based on TA. Corrections and panic/manipulated sell offs come with the territory.

I think small profit plays between $6.20 to $7.10 are the way to go for now. That's where we've been gyrating the last few days.

Of course if someone were to make a huge buy, guess we could ride the train pass the vaunted $7.20.
legendary
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
January 09, 2012, 11:07:10 AM
#13
Yes, it may indeed be the correction many have been expecting...

Gotta' love the optimism -- yes, it's only a correction... let's just wait it out, and then BUY, BUY, BUY!  Roll Eyes
It's just not true that Smart Money simply decided to take another stab at unsuspecting bitcoin speculators.

I am optimistic as in the long run it appears that bitcoin will climb in price based on TA. Corrections and panic/manipulated sell offs come with the territory.
sr. member
Activity: 392
Merit: 250
January 09, 2012, 11:05:37 AM
#12
I smell mania. That's a down-signal for me, because it only pays for bids until things go sideways for the first time.

We had almost 2 months of rallies. A step down wouldn't hurt. Another instant rally would take us back into bubble territory, and what's the point of that? Everybody has made this experience by now, it's unlikely to repeat itself.

this is so silly. the indicators were all bullish. we had an ascending triangle, bouncing off of the wall at $7.20 for days. nothing happened due to low weekend volume, one guy got spooked and dumped coins down to sub $6.90, which started panic sells and more giant dumps. Sure, we needed a correction but we could have gotten over the resistance at $7.20 and sailed to the next level before this happened easily. Notice how the cheap coins were gobbled up instantly? We won't see prices <$6.00, we're on our way up, and since the correction happened early I wouldn't be surprised if we sail to $10 before another major correction.

I wish I could feel your bullish optimism, and that we could rally past $7.20.

But these middle of the night dump offs have me thinking this is more of a Pump and Dump scenario.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
January 09, 2012, 10:59:43 AM
#11
Yes, it may indeed be the correction many have been expecting...

Gotta' love the optimism -- yes, it's only a correction... let's just wait it out, and then BUY, BUY, BUY!  Roll Eyes
It's just not true that Smart Money simply decided to take another stab at unsuspecting bitcoin speculators.
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