How is the SegWit chain going to survive at significantly less than 50% hashpower when they can only mine 1MB blocks? Transactions will grind to a halt and miners will start leaving making it only worse.
That's your judgement, and that's fine. A segwit based main chain would make the blocks up to 4MB with segwit transactions
based on actual transaction data of real use cases expect at best 2.1mb..
that is if 100% of users use segwit keys to get 2.1mb of data for ~7tx/s only IF everyone does it.
yet since 2009 there has been the 'expectation' that bitcoin 1mb would have got 7tx/s yet in 8 years never achieved it.
so even after 8 years of averaging maybe 3.5tx/s all segwit is offering is a half gesture no guarantee best expectation of... 7tx/s
but spammers will still use native keys to spam so even if 99% convert to segwit. it only takes a couple people to spam the block with native keys to show no real visible difference.
dont you get it yet. after 8 years the expectation is still not even a guarantee of 7tx/s