There are many factors at play here
For example, the introduction of LN could give a massive boost to Bitcoin prices both due to hype, which is one thing, and actual gain in real life use due to lower fees and faster transactions, which is a completely different thing. And while I certainly with this Peter Boockvar that Bitcoin is mostly a speculative bubble, it is a special variety of it which can easily switch between its opposing states without any seeming "wear and tear". To put it differently, it is unlikely it will end up where it started
I find it unlikely too, even though the dip can come much lower than expected. Bitcoin historically has alrerdy corrected up to 90%, which is "almost" from "where it started".