Topic: Big picture.. - page 2. (Read 4702 times)

If USA enters another war they will collapse.

And things are bad in middle east and in other parts of the world.

And the debt is over 18 trillion dollar, so I can't say that US is doing everything to keep the carnival doing forever

Some things already had a sharp decline: oil, gold stocks (70-80% decline in the last 3-4 years), bitcoin.
Bonds (TLT) already corrected 14% from the peak. Germany's bunds are in sharp decline (although only for about a mo)
All that remains are stocks and RE. For how long?

The world's major powers (USA, EU, Japan) have never been more united in keeping this carnival going. I'm not worried about a 2015 collapse.

I feel no empathy for the miners for their expensive ASICs that will become worthless if we changed the protocol accordingly. The only thing that has any value in any debate about bitcoin's future is the number of coins you have because you can sign your opinion/vote with the private key to your coins and we can calculate the sum of votes in a democratic way. That said, I'd prefer to see bitcoin evolving and competing rather than stagnating.

Bitcoin should switch to PoS mining because then miners and stakeholders would be the same people and it would help to come to a consensus with much less effort in the future. Stakeholders would then be the owners of Bitcoin and it would solve every fucking problem we currently have due to not having a clear authority to decide which way to go.

The major weakness of bitcoin is that most of the coins were already distributed/mined in the first 5-6 years.
The system gives little incentive to continue mining as rewards are scarce PLUS initial distribution might be to people that current elite does not trust (mostly not one of "them").
This gives impetus to talk about "blockchain" vs "bitcoin" as they can invest in the former via new companies and software development, but not really in the latter (without it going sky high at the first serious accumulation attempt).
The fact that mining is 2/3 finished gives very low $$ value to mining: just $330 mil in revenue can be had this year-these are miniscule numbers for large companies.

Honestly, I don't see how it could be solved and current bitcoin becoming a major currency.
The best bet would be that bitcoin 2.0 will sprung with some link to bitcoin 1.0 and we will be able to do an exchange into the "new bitcoin"

Those who think that mining will prevent it, I present two facts to consider:
1. As most mining manufacturers are mining by themselves instead of selling miners to individuals, most mining will be concentrated in 3-4 major players (at best). it is easy for a few large players to switch to a new compatible coin.
2. Paycoin experience shows that miners are a fickle bunch. As long as you allow them to easily switch to a more lucrative coin (where they can get more $$ RIGHT NOW), they would do so, as long as their miner is compatible.

While I like this chart, to be completely honest the placing of bitcoin is very arbitrary. Red squiggle could be placed almost anywhere

It can in a sense that if a drone gets hacked and is sent to kill some civilians, for example.

That chart about underestimating the future is an underestimate However, not everything can be applied to it.

no, we need to wait for someone to starts to invest in this asset(talking about big investment in the form of trading, billion of dollars into the market), instead of useless news that are not doing nothing to the price, and while many think this not so important, having a better price it is essentially a form of trusting more the market and remove the depression around it

One more fraud,hack and bitcoin will fail below 200$,even without that can be like that,for serious rise weneed to wait for really big news

^^ Yes, the reverse graph reality. We are living it. Now lets hope we keep this reverse graph dimension and the price will rise again in a few months. I mean, everyone is so negative. So it must head positive. 

If you go back 2 years estimates would have put bitcoin well over a $1000 right now, that is the "estimate" that we are currently below. His graph is saying that while the actual current price is lower than the old estimated price, we could be at the point where the actual growth starts increasing up to the estimate and then surpassing previous estimates.

That is the idea behind the graph. Only time will tell what the truth is.

And fonzie, stop being a douce already. It's only cool when you're a child.

Surely it couldn't be purely a cyber event that results in human causalities....right?

Nice thread!

To me looks quite likely that bitcoin rise will coincide with stock market crash and the halving thrown in will add fuel to the rocket.

Obvious in retrospect 

Former NSA intelligence analyst John Schindler says a senior NATO official warned him, "we'd probably be at war by the summer, if we're lucky it won't be nuclear."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUYx6kLZeK4

Also, some Texan dude from Ixia said in CyCon last week that there will be a major cyber conflict event this year with human casualties.

All this in alignment with Jade Helm, NATO military exercises, California drought (possibly geoengineering) and chemtrails appearing as far as in the sky of eastern Europe lately.

If bitcoin's price was to go to the Moon again then I'm pretty sure it would correlate with some other grand scale events.

Absolutely not trolling. I get how the yellow and green lines relate, and I understand the curve of development. As I said, the point at which the Bitcoin price history plot (that is what that red line is, right?) was placed on the technological S-curve is arbitrary. How can you say that the function of the curve is absolute for that piece of price data? There are no X/Y coordinates so it is just stuck there. What's to say that the entire history of Bitcoin wouldn't fit into one pixel on that pic? Or that the price is not already past the start of the rise of the curve and needs to catch up? Indeed where I stuck it is arbitrary, but I guess what I want to know is, how did you come to your conclusion?

waiting down at under 200$

This original pic is not useless, it's a fact. Bitcoin's infrastructure and technological productivity developing goes hand in hand. i mean, do you look more than just the Bitcoin price?

You blue line is pure trolling beceause the price is dropping? Ppl do strange things when the're depressed.

I can arbitrarily place the little historical plot too! Except mine portrays the failed exponential trend line and the space below.


The point is, this picture as well as the original is completely useless. It is basically an opinion (hope?)

The markets should go into bear territory later this year when interest rates rise.  However for a crash to happen you need a catalyst like a major war or other political event, or for a major company to fail.  It is not inevitable.  I hope it doesn't happen even though it might benefit me in some ways.  Lots of people will get hurt in the process.

The bitcoin price is dropping fast right now.  I think it is because of the 20mb feud.  People who don't understand what is going on think that the sky is falling and pull all of their money out.  This is fine for me because i am patient and I love a chance to buy low.  When this thing is resolved expect the price to shoot back up.