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Topic: Billionaires Quietly Preparing for Market Plunge - page 2. (Read 1908 times)

sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
A simple forecast of what corporate earnings will be with normalized interest rates shows their future.  These companies are all riding on low rates, just like the FED wanted.  That's going to come to a screeching halt.  

Why? When central banks finally decide to raise rates, they are likely to do it very slowly and gradually.

then that would mean the economy would probably start sputtering a bit, which would reflect in the stock prices. my point is that artificial fed money and lower interest rates are in place in order to create an artificial "demand" which makes companies more valuable. the long-term trend is that the middle class is cratering, while the upper tier of earners is rising. weakening middle class = weakening economy = weakening stock market.
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
A simple forecast of what corporate earnings will be with normalized interest rates shows their future.  These companies are all riding on low rates, just like the FED wanted.  That's going to come to a screeching halt.   

Why? When central banks finally decide to raise rates, they are likely to do it very slowly and gradually.
legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 1386
Actually if you look at P/E ratio and similar ratios, the S&P500 is near historical averages in terms of these metrics. It's not overvalued like it was in 2000 and prior to other major crashes. The US market is at all time highs right now, but corporate earnings support these valuations.
A simple forecast of what corporate earnings will be with normalized interest rates shows their future.  These companies are all riding on low rates, just like the FED wanted.  That's going to come to a screeching halt.   And with it, comes a halt to the profitability of many companies.

Also higher rates will cause a restructuring of the real estate market.  People that have $1000 per month will buy less house.
sr. member
Activity: 420
Merit: 250
Actually if you look at P/E ratio and similar ratios, the S&P500 is near historical averages in terms of these metrics. It's not overvalued like it was in 2000 and prior to other major crashes. The US market is at all time highs right now, but corporate earnings support these valuations.
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 250
i've always thought this. with the fed pumping out all that money and creating artificial "demand," the stock market bubble seems about ready to pop. i don't know how the market could reach all-time highs when the economy is nowhere near there, as well as the middle class.
legendary
Activity: 3752
Merit: 1217
The stocks are pretty expensive right now... so experts might be right when they say that a market crash is very near. The P/E ratios are getting bigger and bigger, and I don't think this can be sustained in the long term. It will be hard on the global economy though, especially after the recession we had during the 2008/09 period.
legendary
Activity: 1568
Merit: 1001
Quote
"The stock market is at an all-time, but economic activity is not at an all-time," explains billionaire investor Sam Zell to CNBC this morning, adding that, "every company that's missed has missed on the revenue side, which is a reflection that there's a demand issue; and when you got a demand issue it's hard to imagine the stock market at an all-time high." Zell said he is being very cautious adding to stocks and cutting some positions because "I don't remember any time in my career where there have been as many wildcards floating out there that have the potential to be very significant and alter people's thinking." Zell also discussed his view on Obama's Fed encouraging disparity and on tax inversions, but concludes, rather ominously, "this is the first time I ever remember where having cash isn't such a terrible thing." Zell's calls should not be shocking following George Soros. Stan Druckenmiller, and Carl Icahn's warnings that there is trouble ahead.

More good stuff...http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-03/icahn-soros-druckenmiller-and-now-zell-billionaires-are-all-quietly-preparing-market
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