Topic: Bit coin difficulty by end of year, asic (Read 3544 times)

BFL is picking up steam -- at their current pace by the end of 2013 they will have shipped all preorders.

Currently the only actual and accountable ASIC is Avalon, others are vaporware. BTC garden may be a surprise of 100T. BFL is way behind and almost negligible.
So I predict that by the end of 2013. There will be around 650T hashing power.

that is different. avalon was the first asic machine. now you have to fight against all the preordered asics that were backlogged coming online now.
not to mention the manufacturers using avalon chips to produce asic modules that are hitting 200+ g/hash.

avalon only had to kill gpu's by offering 30x the power at 1/4 the power costs.

now the best that can come is 4x the power @ slightly more power costs and cheaper up front costs.

the gap between gpu--->asic 1st gen is much larger then the coming gap of asic 1st gen to 2nd gen. which means its less profitable for asics overall.

i think an asic NOW, 60g/hash, would be profitable now. but getting a 60g/hash machine a month from now is very risky.

My spreadsheet which doesn't try to time when any particular asics are being deployed forecasts 400,000,000+ difficulty by January 1st.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dG9fRkpXdFJtT1dNX0VCU1F0VFFUX3c&usp=sharing

Again, this is purely an extrapolated exponential forecast which trends to past difficulty fairly well, but will break down as the exponential is not permanently sustainable.

mostly scarey talk by those who has bought the asic miner and those jealous of those who own this miner because they can't afford them...this kind of conversation was going on when Avalon was about to launched their asic miner and this same group make the same conversation and they go on and on ...

Groovy

Im seeing double! 

Around 200 million.

If the newest asics aren't worth running then no one will run them and the difficulty won't be what you predict.

Higher price leads to higher difficulty.  Higher difficulty does not lead to higher price.

I've read many people's estimates and ran some of my own and I would guess about 200 million by end of year.

... but electricity is - so I believe there is a connection. I believe it is very tough race,decided not to invest now.
re - asumptions : see " bitfury ... not included yet !!"
... but those are the ones I would say could work for a while.

Difficulty is not measured in dollars.

$230 easy... remember what happened on my last prediction:)

Assumptions:
- Most Avalon chips are shipped by ~July.
- Chip users are able to build their clones and ship the majority of their products by September.
- KNCMiner is successful with their 28nm process and does not run into any major delays with any part of the design, engineering, construction, production, and shipping processes.
- BitFury isn't a scam, does not run into problems with the chips or design of their modules
- The rest of Avalon B2 and B3 are received and up and running

.. And I probably forgot some.


Assumption:
- The market value of BTC is not high enough to make up for the increased difficulty

If you have an asic on preorder, cancel it! By the time you recieve it your rig will be way outdated.

my guess (valid around September : over 1,000,000 Ghps,probably twice as much) - feel free to amend :

# HashSpeedNet:30.3.:60Thps - 30.5.:110Thps => 50Thps/61d=> +820Ghps/den (=3000 cips/day[280Mhps])
daysFrom20130330=180 # end of September
## 1500 Batch 2-3 Avalons represent ~100TH alone. Even assuming the most optimistic delivery time of 2 weeks from now
## 2013/06/10 : kncminer.orderID=1840 ? say half 175gh and half 350gh
## ?? bitfury ?! 5Ghps,6w chip - not included yet !!
#avalon +avalon71+ asicMinerUsbErupter+asicMinerBlade+BFL+knc175
addASICS=88*10000*0.282 + 1500*71.0 +0.336*5000 + 10.0*1000 + 12.0*500 + 12.0*500 + 175*1000 + 350*1000
def HashSpeedNet(daysFrom20130330): return daysFrom20130330*820+6e4+addASICS # Ghps
allBTCperDay=24*6*25.0 # BTC
chipsMining=100 # chips bought and crunching
chipHashSpeed=0.280 # Giga hash per sec
def myHashPower(): return (chipHashSpeed*chipsMining) # Ghps
def dailyReward(daysFrom20130330): return myHashPower()/HashSpeedNet(daysFrom20130330)*allBTCperDay  # I get proportional part of all mined BTCs
## reward through X days
daysRunning=75 #days
START=180 # days after 30.3.
def reward(): return reduce(lambda x,y:x+y,map(lambda q:dailyReward(q),range(START,START+daysRunning))) # BTC
## costs
usdPerBTC=109.0
btcPerChip=.09 # btc
def costsAround1(): return(130*1.3/usdPerBTC+15.0*1.3/usdPerBTC)/chipsMining # pcb+other parts(130eur),postal(15 eur all),...? BTC
powerConsPerChipPlus=3.0 # watts including parts around
btcPerKWh=0.15/usdPerBTC
def costs(): return (btcPerChip+costsAround1())*chipsMining+powerConsPerChipPlus/1000.0*chipsMining*btcPerKWh*daysRunning # in BTC
(reward(),costs())
## kncminer 175GHps
chipsMining=1
chipHashSpeed=175.0
btcPerChip=3795.0/usdPerBTC
powerConsPerChipPlus=500
daysRunning=71
def costsAround1(): return 280/usdPerBTC #postal ups next day
(reward(),costs())

Silly me, got confused with hashrate and difficulty chart.

So, 200 million+ with current steep trend.

the newest ASICS today will be worth nothing by end of year

Around 100 million.