Topic: Bitcoin 2013 vs bitcoin 2017 - page 2. (Read 722 times)

Probably $20k for 2019 high, and well past $100k for 2020 high, then averaging around $50k in 2021.

indeed. i'd say a capitulation wick into the $2000s or $3000s is totally possible. i wouldn't base anything on that "channel" though. it's only got two tags on the lower bound, and none on the upper bound, so it's really just a trendline that's never been tested. it also looks a lot different on a line chart vs bar or candlestick chart, due to price averaging on line charts.

Looks pretty believable to me - the top line is the top of the next peak and the bottom line is the price after the crash. Something approximating this chart needs to happen for bitcoin's survival in my opinion. It's either going to continue much higher price floors every 4 years or it's going to totally collapse.

The fundamentals in 2013 were insanely different and more pessimistic compared to 2018.

2013 was still a big mess exchanges wise. If you think it's bad now, well in 2013 it was still amateur hour big time, nowadays things are getting more profesional even tho there's still big question marks out there with tether and whatnot, but the main point is there isn't a big single point of failure exchanges wise like in the Gox days.

Also the scaling drama is over. Now we've got LN already live and being improved, we have Schnorr sigs on the pipeline and other cool stuff.

We have institutional money about to come in next month with Bakkt... in 2014 we had nothing to be honest, just the hardcore holders and smart people that knew the fundamentals of bitcoin make it a winner no matter what the ponzi fiat scheme that is being priced in is valued at.


This one I like:



Big gap on that channel.. adjust accordingly.

that only happened once, from 2014-2017. you make it sound like it's an established pattern. i'd certainly say people should temper bullish expectations, but i also think it's naive to assume things will play out exactly like the 2013 bubble.


you got a chart to support that theory?

We will probably only see $6k for a 2019 high, 2020 probably $10k for a high, and 2021 well past $100k.

Absolutely. Bitcoin prices usually move in such cycles of bull/bear markets.

I don't think this should be surprise anyone and more experienced speculators because this has happened before many times, including the 2013 bear market. It also happens quite frequently outside of the bitcoin realm, with bear and bull market sentiment affecting prices regularly in stock markets as well as real estate as well.

Since market sentiment is so low and bearish, we are seeing a period of dips and sluggishness in general, quite similar to the 2013 scenario. To me, I think that the recovery may take less time this time round due to the fact that bitcoin is more mature and institutional investors, but it will still take a while before bullish reversal actually happens. 2020's halving will be an interesting phase for the recovery of BTC for sure.

This was repeated a thousand times already.

Bitcoin have a four-year cycle. We are in the worse year of the new cycle. Its a bear year, followed by a year of recovery, then the year of the halvening, and then the bull year.

We will see 20k again only in 2019. And in 2020 we might see 50k, due to the halvening.

Because of the halving of rewards, the bitcoin price must go up every 4 years, otherwise it's growth can be said to be halted and the failure/death of bitcoin is imminent. This is pure economics. You can see this happening every halving so far, and its a perfectly logical expectation for it to happen again in 2021. If the price does not respond in a positive way (significantly higher price than the previous ath in 2017) within a year of the next halving in 2020 expect total collapse.

The cycles might appear to be very similar but they're actually not. As always, the adage "history repeats itself" doesn't ring true in volatile markets such as bitcoin. You see, if it ever repeats itself, we would have expected or have predicted rightfully when will the next bull run be, but right now we're only coming up with biased guesses and 'guesstimates' as to when will the hysteria and FOMO begin again. As more and more people are participating in this open market, the harder it is for the whales to actually control it and make their moves similar to what happened a few years back.

Just because it has happened once doesn't really mean it will happen again. This "history repeats itself" is not true at all, we had so many things happen in history that is absent in today's world (thankfully) and this is one of them. Yes there is a chance that bitcoin will increase in price however it doesn't have to do it at all.

Bitcoin is improving every single year and just like the post says there is more people in bitcoin now than ever and this could make it a quicker return instead of waiting until November of next year. Also the price can't increase at the same rate again because the marketcap would go above the stock exchanges of the USA which is really unlikely for now to achieve in crypto world.

We are big but nothing close to that big. Stock exchanges have been around for decades and we have been here only for 10 years now.

As what they have said it is hard to predict the market price, comparing the price in the past it is impossible to happen.
A lot of things happen and probably it won't happen again, just like what in cryptocurrency we don't know when the exact time bull run will happen. If I know, I won't tell to anyone and I'm sure I have a lot of profit. Just like that scenario, we must be thankful that bitcoin existed in 10 years as a digital currency.

You can't just copy and paste one cycle onto the next one. This bear market was very different than the last one, including being quite a bit shorter. OP you are just copy and pasting the timeline from the last cycle onto the current cycle, that makes no sense, no cycle has been the same. So far this cycle is shorter so likely by October 2019 we'll be well into the next bull run for probably like half a year by then.

it is very difficult to predict the price of bitcoin but I am very happy with what you say, because you talk using data.
I am very fed up with people who say bitcoin will reach $ 50k at the end of the year, they talk without facts.

Bitcoin will rise regardless of what you think it will do based on past movements. Institutional presence is a factor to take into consideration, because where in the previous years it was largely a retail driven orgy, we're now marching towards a market with much more professional parties that are involved.

They value the $100 billion market cap, and it's no surprise that the main support is very close to that number, and will likely remain that.

Main support is around ~$5800 x 17.35 million circulating coins = ~$100 billion.

Well this is just his speculation and I really think we should not get harsh on anything wrong he might have said because that is totally what he used to really know, Any many are simply looking at the past movement of bitcoin and comparing the movement with just that in mind, But Bitcoin price can always move regarding the demands and news it have whether it is a positive one or a negative one, no one can really predict it 100% accurate it would always have a inaccurate forecast of the movement, Well OP had just trying to put a good speculation and I really think that the year of 2020 can be a good set back for the price to make a new all-time high.

At least, OP is trying. In this market we don't have anything to look into other than what happened in the past during similar cycles, and while I agree that they don't offer any guarantees, there are some useful aspects to it.

Most of the newbies don't come further than the price will either go up or down (mostly up). Many even think this is the first time that Bitcoin is going through a correction like this and for that reason it's going to implode.

Everything better than the ignorant $50k before the end of the year newbies. They still don't know what the heck is going on, and probably never will. They would learn a lot by opening charts to look at historical cycles.......

I completely disagree with your speculation because you have some wrong statements but mostly because you are not looking at the whole thing which is both similarities and "differences" between two time periods. you can't just find some similarities and then stick to them to force a certain conclusion that you like!

for example 2013 rise took about 2 months and was mostly a pump rather than a rise, mainly because of the control that Mt Gox had over the whole market and the fact that there practically was no other big exchanges. and as "pumps" go they always end badly.
in comparison 2017 rise took more than a year and even if you wanted to compare the two trends you can only compare the 2013 rise with the rise from $10k to $20k and say the drop should be down to $10k and then rise back from there!

as for the drop part, the drop of 2014 was because of the bubble AND a lot of other factors. the biggest ones were Mt Gox scam which was the biggest hit the market could take since as I said it controlled almost all the market. also the SilkRoad drama and a lot of other smaller negative factors against bitcoin.
in comparison 2018 drop is only because of the $20k bubble and the fact that speculators kept comparing the two scenarios with each other that convinced themselves it should be similar and did a panic sell.
if you compare two charts the current trend looks more like the bottom in 2015 @$220 with its perfect horizontal line.

I disagree with the rise speculation too. because that is also flawed. you are basically saying just because it has risen before after the drop it should rise again after this drop too! but that is wrong. the past rise after the drop does not guarantee the rise this time.

History never repeats. It might rhyme, but it never repeats. This is why fractal analysis is viewed as useless voodoo by most experienced traders. New traders love it because it's visually intuitive. But over time, they find out history never actually repeats, and that predictive TA isn't accurate.

If history does repeat, then we should get a strong bull trap soon that mirrors the April-June 2014 period.

Not totally true. Back in 2013 or 2014, the price doubled during the spring-summer period. Your post is giving few true facts but the conclusion still stays a speculation, and we all have our own.
I just hope you're wrong and we will see a significant move before October.