Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022 - page 4. | Bitcointalksearch.org

ImThour

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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k

Quote from: el kaka22 on May 10, 2022, 02:26:35 PM

I 100% agree that it is similar now. I used to say that it wasn't that much similar, but now I agree that it is quite similar to that year. I know that we are not down 90% or something like that just like we were in 2018, but there are some coins which are down that much, and the ones who aren't down that much, aren't far off, and the drop may not be over just yet, maybe it will fall even more.

I remember 2018 and we were down from 20k to 3k levels in a week, it happened in a whole year, we were around 6*8k until November and then it dropped under 4k levels, so maybe after the summer we would have another strong fall, who says we won't? There is no way of knowing.

Glad someone is willing to accept that they were wrong in the past and now wants to follow the correct idea.
I made a post on 26th Jan 2022 saying BTC will touch the 200 Weekly moving average, I remember it was laughed off by "Legendary" members lol.
As always, I post what I see, IDC about others perspective. Let's see where we go.

el kaka22

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I 100% agree that it is similar now. I used to say that it wasn't that much similar, but now I agree that it is quite similar to that year. I know that we are not down 90% or something like that just like we were in 2018, but there are some coins which are down that much, and the ones who aren't down that much, aren't far off, and the drop may not be over just yet, maybe it will fall even more.

I remember 2018 and we were down from 20k to 3k levels in a week, it happened in a whole year, we were around 6*8k until November and then it dropped under 4k levels, so maybe after the summer we would have another strong fall, who says we won't? There is no way of knowing.

cabron

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Quote from: Lubang Bawah on May 09, 2022, 01:47:00 AM

The current price of bitcoin which is around $ 33k certainly surprised me, I did not think that the price continues to fall, the other side that makes me surprised is that at this time more and more countries open tenders to legalize bitcoin like Panama and the Republic of Central Africa, of course this has become a big test for us.

Just when we thought another country adopting BTC as legal tender and the price will go up, seem doesn't count now because in TA this bear is testing the lowest support in 2021. And if it breaks out, everybody might just jump out panicking to sell. This test is not for the holder with weak constitution.

The price this morning when I wake up I think was still $35k. Just think about it if this bear market continues another year before we see the light, how much will the price be?

Lubang Bawah

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The current price of bitcoin which is around $ 33k certainly surprised me, I did not think that the price continues to fall, the other side that makes me surprised is that at this time more and more countries open tenders to legalize bitcoin like Panama and the Republic of Central Africa, of course this has become a big test for us.

Nrcewker

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Quote from: BitcoinHodler on May 08, 2022, 09:11:05 AM

Quote from: ImThour on May 08, 2022, 06:37:14 AM

I am expecting another 40% drop in the price and will call that bottom of the cycle.

last year people drew charts comparing bitcoin in 2017 with bitcoin in 2021 and expected price to reach all kinds of high prices all above $100k.
it didn't happen.

what i'm trying to say is that history does not repeat. and these two charts don't really have that much in common either.

People are doing all here is just assumptions.
They don’t really see the real trend that Bitcoin is following.
Don’t know about the History, but when Bitcoins have fell the market, soon within shorter period of time it recovers and sometimes it breaks his all time high.
This might be the indication from Bitcoins to buy, as it’s the perfect time when Bitcoins will start pumping again.
I too don’t see much similarities between 2018 and 2022, but yes I feel Bitcoins will break the record this year.
Let’s see what other people think about my opinion.

pooya87

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I've said this a million times now and will repeat it again each time another person makes the same mistake again.
You don't get to compare the dump part if you are not comparing the rise part. The huge drops in 2018 happened because price had gone up 13233% you can't expect the same drops and claim the charts are the same while you haven't even looked at the whole cycle to see that this time price only went up about 2056%.

That is 11000% smaller.

This is how the rise part of the cycle looks in comparison:

Paul Pogba

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If we compare bitcoin 2018 and 2022 we see almost the same trend, namely the price drops significantly after reaching ATH, of course there is still a lot of time to see if 2022 will repeat 2018, but I hope it doesn't happen again.

Biodom

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Sorry, all of the predictions above may happen, indeed, which then would makes bitcoin just an oscillator (if at or below 20K happens).
It would violate ALL prior history, and would make this asset a stochastic one (random walk), diminishing it's future to a large degree.
I would dare to say that IF below 20K happens, then above 100K would NEVER happen.
The world would just move on to new things.

So, ladies and gents...buy..buy buy somewhere between 20K and current 33.7K or say bye-bye to it as an investment.
jmho

Fundamentals Of

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Quote from: ImThour on May 08, 2022, 06:37:14 AM

I am expecting another 40% drop in the price and will call that bottom of the cycle.
Let's see how it executes in upcoming weeks.

40%? Is that expectation more likely to happen? Or is it simply because small portions of the chart are suggesting so? If Bitcoin is expected to lose 40% more of the price right, the price would still nosedive until lower than $20,000. To me, that's too low and this current bear market might not really pull us back to that price level. Or I hope so. But things are not looking good right now. Supports are broken as if they're the softest of all. So anything could happen. Let's see.

adaseb

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There were a lot of indicator that pointed bearish that year, it wasn’t only the MACD. What was brutal about 2018 is that most people were bullish. Many were expecting November 2018 to be the month where crypto will take off since it was usually a bullish month and the complete opposite happened.

Right now I don’t think anyone is bullish at $33K, so most likely it won’t break like everybody expects. However i the real battle will be when we get to the $28k area in a few months. If that breaks most likely the previous ATH will get tested.

Scripture

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Quote from: BitcoinHodler on May 08, 2022, 10:28:08 AM

Quote from: Kemarit on May 08, 2022, 10:01:30 AM

But you have to realized that there is a pattern between the two, of course it could rise again, but the question is when since we are in a bear market already.

it has never been possible to predict when a downtrend is going to stop.

Though looking at the comparison, there's a higher chance that 2022 will form the same chart trend and that could be the best sign to know the bottom but of course its not guaranteed and hundred percent sure. I just confirmed that the history will repeat itself because of this chart, I'll stay put for now while waiting for the bottom price, the market will rise again for sure and for you to enjoy that better to buy during bear market.

STT

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Quote from: BitcoinHodler on May 08, 2022, 10:28:08 AM

it has never been possible to predict when a downtrend is going to stop.

Its not possible in an absolute way but you can determine when there is a strong trend and when volume is lacking for example. If we repeatedly attempt but fail to pass a point it can be surmised as a reason to consider we might be encountering a point where the market might turn. The 2018 low came year end into a time of holidays and possibly reduced volume in that time, price can go anywhere but the quality of trading action varies. Right now price is near to the year low, it cant be said to be everything but its worth noting how we react to the recent low prices.

serjent05

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Quote from: BitcoinHodler on May 08, 2022, 09:11:05 AM

Quote from: ImThour on May 08, 2022, 06:37:14 AM

I am expecting another 40% drop in the price and will call that bottom of the cycle.

last year people drew charts comparing bitcoin in 2017 with bitcoin in 2021 and expected price to reach all kinds of high prices all above $100k.
it didn't happen.

Predictions and TA is always shamed by the BTC market.

Quote from: BitcoinHodler on May 08, 2022, 09:11:05 AM

what i'm trying to say is that history does not repeat. and these two charts don't really have that much in common either.

The cycle repeats itself but of course in a different pattern. Whether history repeats or not depends on the subject being presented.

, In the case of Bitcoin market cycle history it does repeat several times now.

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on May 08, 2022, 04:41:32 PM

40% drop right now would put Bitcoin at $20,000.

Would be a great Bitcoin sale price of the year if that happens

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on May 08, 2022, 04:41:32 PM

That's the top of the previous cycle. Bitcoin never fell to the price level of the top of the previous cycle. Of course there's a first time for everything, but purely from the long-term trend, it is unlikely. The bottom of this cycle should be much higher than $20,000 - somewhere at $27-29,000. Maybe it will briefly touch $25,000 if there's some foreseen event that could cause such panic.

It is too early to tell where the bottom of this bear market is since the Bitcoin price is greatly affected by the upcoming events and prediction is easily nullified if there is a piece of strong news or events that can have a great impact on the Bitcoin demand.

Quote from: stomachgrowls on May 08, 2022, 12:40:09 PM

Whether these indicators could really be that precise or not(always) then let's just be prepared and make ourselves ready on getting in on that possible bottom or you do make yourself ready to catch on.

Best to accumulate Bitcoin when many holders is panic selling.

hatshepsut93

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40% drop right now would put Bitcoin at $20,000. That's the top of the previous cycle. Bitcoin never fell to the price level of the top of the previous cycle. Of course there's a first time for everything, but purely from the long-term trend, it is unlikely. The bottom of this cycle should be much higher than $20,000 - somewhere at $27-29,000. Maybe it will briefly touch $25,000 if there's some foreseen event that could cause such panic.

uneng

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The 2022 market is much more mature than it was in 2018. Right now there are more investors (especially institutional ones), more traders, more merchants, more social promoters, more gamblers... All these factors contribute for raising the support level of bitcoin, so we can expect smoother and smoother corrections along the time. 40% looks too much considering those currently market conditions.

So far bitcoin has dropped about 14% since the last stable price in the 39,000$'s range. Next days must be decisive.

However, things can get really bad for bitcoin once US Federal Reserve increases interest rates again (it's expected). On that case I believe a sharp correction could happen leading bitcoin to the mentioned 40% decline in price, although it's a real chaotic possibility, worst of the cases.

stomachgrowls

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Quote from: cabron on May 08, 2022, 11:56:33 AM

40% dip which $25K may not be the very bottom of it scares the moon bois for sure. I'm wondering what other indicators have OP been using that provides same signal besides the MACD?

It took a year from $20K in 2018 to dip to its bottom in 2019 on $3k. This month of May is also a year since its $62K peak. I'm just thinking maybe the cycle will change this time as it hasn't break that $30K support. That may be the signal to wait before turning the coins to stablecoin.

Questions would really boggled up our mind considering that we could really make out some patterns basing on previous high and lows but it's true that the price is really still tanking in 30k+ price but still not an assured thing since everything could really make out some breakout of support which is something very plausible on this market.

Whether these indicators could really be that precise or not(always) then let's just be prepared and make ourselves ready on getting in on that possible bottom or you do make yourself ready to catch on.

cabron

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40% dip which $25K may not be the very bottom of it scares the moon bois for sure. I'm wondering what other indicators have OP been using that provides same signal besides the MACD?

It took a year from $20K in 2018 to dip to its bottom in 2019 on $3k. This month of May is also a year since its $62K peak. I'm just thinking maybe the cycle will change this time as it hasn't break that $30K support. That may be the signal to wait before turning the coins to stablecoin.

BitcoinHodler

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Quote from: ImThour on May 08, 2022, 11:15:02 AM

to see if 2018 and 2022 are common or not. I bet, it is.

i don't think you read my post so i say again: 2017 and 2021 were also looking identical at the time yet the peak didn't form.

price is falling, and it may fall a lot more but it will not be because of repetition of some pattern. it is all about the current ongoing crisis in the world in energy and food that gets worse every day. as long as that crisis is ongoing and people are panic selling, we continue seeing a bear market and as soon as the crisis ends or panic sell stops things will reverse.

we had the same in 2020 when a virus crisis started and people started panic selling and it only ended as soon as the panic sell ended before the crisis even began to end!

ImThour

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Bitcoin Bottom was at $15.4k

Quote from: BitcoinHodler on May 08, 2022, 09:11:05 AM

what i'm trying to say is that history does not repeat. and these two charts don't really have that much in common either.

You surely need to go through my charts here at https://www.tradingview.com/u/ImThour/ to see if 2018 and 2022 are common or not. I bet, it is.
I am not interested to post details here or prove it.

BitcoinHodler

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HODLing is an art, not just a word...

Quote from: Kemarit on May 08, 2022, 10:01:30 AM

But you have to realized that there is a pattern between the two, of course it could rise again, but the question is when since we are in a bear market already.

it has never been possible to predict when a downtrend is going to stop.

Topic: Bitcoin 2018 vs 2022 - page 4. (Read 822 times)