Topic: Bitcoin, 2019 and next halving - page 2. (Read 741 times)
lol...I can just imagine what 2020 is going to be. The wait for it is really spiking up and people are anticipating for a price we have never seen before. Anyways, if indeed that's gonna be the case then I think we are gonna have a little rough year this year. In all these, one thing that I wish for most is that crypto stays for that long and I believe we can. I think now we've already gotten over the argument crypto is gonna die. We're here to stay.
that means the lowest point will occur at the end of this year? and the peak of the bull will occur at the end of 2023? oh this is too long, the bull happens every two years.
It is 4 years and not 2. And this time should happen earlier then in 4 because everyone expect it and they will want to be ahead of others.
You may be right, but there is always the unkown factor of whether bitcoin will pump again. Nobody knows for sure, and this fear of the unknown keeps people in the same mindset and keeps them from jumping the gun, or accumulating no matter the price.
Something unexpected may happen in any moment and such charts will have to be corrected very quickly. It's enough for Bitcoin to become the official currency of a medium-sized country, or Google and McDonalds will accept it, to completely change this lines. We have to remember, that this is just speculation.
I don't see how any of those things are possible with the current inability to scale.
that means the lowest point will occur at the end of this year? and the peak of the bull will occur at the end of 2023? oh this is too long, the bull happens every two years.
It is 4 years and not 2. And this time should happen earlier then in 4 because everyone expect it and they will want to be ahead of others.
You may be right, but there is always the unkown factor of whether bitcoin will pump again. Nobody knows for sure, and this fear of the unknown keeps people in the same mindset and keeps them from jumping the gun, or accumulating no matter the price.
Something unexpected may happen in any moment and such charts will have to be corrected very quickly. It's enough for Bitcoin to become the official currency of a medium-sized country, or Google and McDonalds will accept it, to completely change this lines. We have to remember, that this is just speculation.
that means the lowest point will occur at the end of this year? and the peak of the bull will occur at the end of 2023? oh this is too long, the bull happens every two years.
It is 4 years and not 2. And this time should happen earlier then in 4 because everyone expect it and they will want to be ahead of others.
You may be right, but there is always the unkown factor of whether bitcoin will pump again. Nobody knows for sure, and this fear of the unknown keeps people in the same mindset and keeps them from jumping the gun, or accumulating no matter the price.
The halving effect will start from May 2019 when people start to accumulate. The price starts to rise and miners will also return increasing the difficulty as a result. Dec 2019 will certainly be a good time for bitcoin hodlers (better than it was in 2018)
No. First off, halving effects don't happen before the actual halving, they happen afterwards as the market adjusts to the new lesser amount of newly mined coins being offered on exchanges. Secondly, accumulation periods are not marked by increased prices, they are marked by sideways prices after a true bottom is reached. I doubt very seriously if the true bottom of this bear market has been reached.
that means the lowest point will occur at the end of this year? and the peak of the bull will occur at the end of 2023? oh this is too long, the bull happens every two years.
It is 4 years and not 2. And this time should happen earlier then in 4 because everyone expect it and they will want to be ahead of others.
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The halving effect will start from May 2019 when people start to accumulate. The price starts to rise and miners will also return increasing the difficulty as a result. Dec 2019 will certainly be a good time for bitcoin hodlers (better than it was in 2018)
Maybe, maybe not, but certainly it looks like 3000 seems to be a great psychological support a lot has been waiting for and it falls on the long term support anyway. However, it is a market, and we cannot guarantee anything yet although, knowing what the pre and post-halving usually tend to bring, I guess there is still great hope long term. Looking at the situation of things, this year would really be a very boring one, but at least, not a bad time to be accumulating for those who are smart.So if $3000 is the support, we cannot do anything while we could only following the price. I think no matter how much the price will be, as long as we can keep making a profit, it doesn't matter for us and even I am sure that it will be a good time for the altcoin to rise back again. I see that if bitcoin is on the one point level, the altcoin can increase so high and there will be a jump of the altcoin price to break the next wall. The market will have many movements and the altcoin will alive again
The halving effect will start from May 2019 when people start to accumulate. The price starts to rise and miners will also return increasing the difficulty as a result. Dec 2019 will certainly be a good time for bitcoin hodlers (better than it was in 2018)
Maybe, maybe not, but certainly it looks like 3000 seems to be a great psychological support a lot has been waiting for and it falls on the long term support anyway. However, it is a market, and we cannot guarantee anything yet although, knowing what the pre and post-halving usually tend to bring, I guess there is still great hope long term. Looking at the situation of things, this year would really be a very boring one, but at least, not a bad time to be accumulating for those who are smart. 
I saved this picture and put it on my desktop. I keep it to see how accurate it could prove to be, or not.
So it says 2019 will be very mediocre, following the current trend and that 2020 could be very exciting.
I am starting this thread to ask for opinions, of course this chart looks too simplistic and extremely bullish in the long term, but any constructive opinion is more than welcome. Cheers.
So it says 2019 will be very mediocre, following the current trend and that 2020 could be very exciting.
I am starting this thread to ask for opinions, of course this chart looks too simplistic and extremely bullish in the long term, but any constructive opinion is more than welcome. Cheers.
the logarithmic growth theory is one school of thought about bitcoin price cycles. i think there's some validity to it but like you, i think it's a tad simplistic---those curves will definitely be adjusted to fit future price data.
one reason i lend the log trend idea some credence is that it explains why the cycles take longer and longer as time goes on.
Simplistic? But you can't deny how really simple those long term patterns are.
From a newbie's perspective. If the next curve up, more or less, follows where the price in the chart is going, would only be then that they accept it as, more or less, accurate? I believe it would be riskier not to take their opportunity to buy now.
I saved this picture and put it on my desktop. I keep it to see how accurate it could prove to be, or not.
So it says 2019 will be very mediocre, following the current trend and that 2020 could be very exciting.
I am starting this thread to ask for opinions, of course this chart looks too simplistic and extremely bullish in the long term, but any constructive opinion is more than welcome. Cheers.
So it says 2019 will be very mediocre, following the current trend and that 2020 could be very exciting.
I am starting this thread to ask for opinions, of course this chart looks too simplistic and extremely bullish in the long term, but any constructive opinion is more than welcome. Cheers.
the logarithmic growth theory is one school of thought about bitcoin price cycles. i think there's some validity to it but like you, i think it's a tad simplistic---those curves will definitely be adjusted to fit future price data.
one reason i lend the log trend idea some credence is that it explains why the cycles take longer and longer as time goes on.
that means the lowest point will occur at the end of this year? and the peak of the bull will occur at the end of 2023? oh this is too long, the bull happens every two years.
So it says 2019 will be very mediocre, following the current trend and that 2020 could be very exciting.
This chart actually state that 2019 will be very mediocre and 2020 very boring year. But I believe the chart is wrong and in reality 2019 will be very boring year and 2020 exciting.
Then that should give everyone more than enough time to buy as much "cheap" coins as they can in preparation for the next rally.
This chart might be the one closer to what you are saying.
Sorry nocoiners, no excuses, and we did not get lucky.
So it says 2019 will be very mediocre, following the current trend and that 2020 could be very exciting.
This chart actually state that 2019 will be very mediocre and 2020 very boring year. But I believe the chart is wrong and in reality 2019 will be very boring year and 2020 exciting.
The halving effect will start from May 2019 when people start to accumulate. The price starts to rise and miners will also return increasing the difficulty as a result. Dec 2019 will certainly be a good time for bitcoin hodlers (better than it was in 2018)
Longterm bullish but the trend for a bull market is still in and isnt showing any signs of ending in the near future.
All i cant take from the graph is we will be dancing around $3k - $4k most of 2019 and can expect a bull run from sometime 2020 onwards.
All i cant take from the graph is we will be dancing around $3k - $4k most of 2019 and can expect a bull run from sometime 2020 onwards.
Also, according to the chart bitcoin will not be going up in the next 2 years, 2020 ends with 3500 which is less than current price, I see NO possible way bitcoin doesn't go up at all in the next 2 years, that is impossible.
I don't see anything crazy about it if this happens, because it happened before.
Past performance does not predict future results. It is entirely possible, as you say, that the price doesn't dip any more and climbs up to $100k in the next 2 years. It is also entirely possible we fall back to $3k or lower and stay there for 2-3 years. The problems with charts like this, which try to retrospectively fit patterns to the data, is that they are only right until they aren't, and you have no way of predicting when they will stop being right. I could go and find 100 charts from this time last year which nicely drawn lines on them showing how the bull run is going to continue until $50k, which obviously didn't happen.
I'm obviously bullish long term, otherwise I wouldn't be here, but just be wary of pinning all your hopes on a guaranteed price rise within a set time frame, or reaching a target value by a target data. Prolonged bear markets have happened before, and they will happen again.
Welp. another 2 years stuck between 3000 and 4000. I don't believe that bitcoin can be stuck in that price range for so long (now that it is fairly well positioned in the public spotlight) only to then go on another big bull run like before. If we're going to see new heights it's going to need to start sometime in the next year.
You just to remember that everything works on cycle and because the market is still fairly young and we only have a small sample data, it makes sense to look at it and predict that we might see the price moving sideways this year. That's what the last cycle tells us if you look at the chart, it might give us a different pattern in 2019-2020, but lets look at it in the bright side. If the patterns holds true then at least we can prepare ourselves as early as this time so that we won't get disappointed.
On thing though about the last bitcoin block halving is that it took months (as far as I can remember) though before we finally see some reversal and the eventual all-time-high in 2017.
I can see that history suggests will have a long stagnant period but I'm not sure that history can keep repeating itself. Like bitcoin cannot keep going through 100x bubbles and 80%+ crashes it also probably cannot survive for multiple years of stagnancy now that so many people keep an eye on it.
Don't forget the halfing event sometime in 2020. If I remember correctly, about 6 months before the halfing, btc price will be locked in for the event, which means it will get interesting in Nov/Dec 2019.
I don't buy what you are saying for a second. I think it takes several months after the actual halving for the reduced new supply of coins to be felt so 2021 we will see the real effect of the halving. This has been the way it's gone for all previous halvings.
Don't forget the halfing event sometime in 2020. If I remember correctly, about 6 months before the halfing, btc price will be locked in for the event, which means it will get interesting in Nov/Dec 2019.
I think that in 2019 it is still not able to restore market conditions such as 2017, in 2019 it will be a recovery process and the jump will likely be seen in 2020.
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