Mpcoin supporters have announced that they will sell their gavincoins and buy mpcoins instead. Gavincoin supporters have not announced anything. So one can suppose that, at the beginning, the price of gavincoin will tank.
This will attract more people who had no opinion but who want to earn easy money, especially if at least one Bitcoin/fiat exchange exists on both chains.
This will also send a signal to miners : if Mpcoin has more value than Gavincoin, some miners will have an incentive to switch back to Mpcoin.
During the whole time of the operation, the chain with the lower hashrate will be vulnerable to 51% attacks.
The fiat price of both will probably tank also, because people will not know if any of them will survive.
In the end, if MP wins, there will probably never be another hard fork proposal.
That's despicable. Bitcoin was never meant to be a permanent 1 MB block size network. Caveden's warning from 2010 sounds prescient now:
Hello all,
Recently I just posted on another thread to express my concern about this subject, but I thought it might deserve a topic of its own.
This block size rule is something really "dangerous" to the protocol. Rules like that are almost impossible to change once there are many clients implementing the protocol. Take SMTP as an example. Several improvements could be done to it, but how? It's impractical to synchronize the change.
And, well, if we ever want to scale, such limit will have to grow. I really think we should address this problem while there is only one client used by everyone, and changes in the protocol are still feasible, because in the future we may not be able to.
As far as I understand, one of the purposes of this block size limit was to avoid flooding. Another purpose as well, as mentioned
here, is to keep the transaction fees not "too small" in order to create an incentive for block generation once the coin production isn't that interesting anymore. (if only a limited number of transactions can enter a block, those with the smallest fees won't be quickly processed...)
So, if we really need a block size limit, and if we also need it to scale, why not making such limit so that it adjusts itself to the transaction rate, as the difficulty of generation adjust itself to the generation rate?
Some of the smart guys in this forum could come up with an adjustment formula, taking in consideration the total size of all transactions in the latest X blocks, and calculating which should be the block size limit for the next X blocks. Just like the difficulty factor.This way we avoid this "dangerous" constant in the protocol.
One of the things the smart guys would have to decide is how rigorous will the adjustment be. Should the adjustment be done in order to always leave enough room to all transactions in the next block, or should blocks be "tight" enough to make sure that some transactions will have to wait, thus pushing up the transaction fees?
Okay, I do realize that it would allow flooders to slowly increase the limit, but, what for? As long as generators aren't accepting 0-fee transactions, a flooder would have to pay to perform his attack.
So, what do you think?
Anyway, I'll use the real Bitcoin, that doesn't try to make permanent a temporary anti-spam measure, no matter what.