Bitcoin: A safe haven in times of economic recession?

slaman29

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Quote from: justdimin on July 11, 2023, 10:01:49 AM

Quote from: slaman29 on July 10, 2023, 03:57:40 AM

I agree it's a "Safe haven" for a long period of time. Compared to currencies like my own and all the friends I know who struggle every day with daily expenses rising and costs of everything going up while salary remains the same and savings interest isn't matching inflation.

But BTC vs USD ever since the economic recession has been terrible, USD hit all time highs against so many currencies while BTC is still less than 50% of USD ATH. So what's this talk about safe haven? Why can't Bitcoin just be a normal long-term savings 10-year value going up deal?

That long period of time part is the most important part and yes I agree that it's a safe haven for a long period of time but not so much for the short term at all. I know that it's not going to be that easy to do something like this and then go ahead and just end up with a bad result in the first week and leave, that would be bad.

If you invest, you should invest knowing that bitcoin would be a good profit maker for you on the very long term, but you can't be expecting that to have a good return in the first month or two. I hope to retire by the time I am 40-45, which means I have a bit more time before that, and I base that on how much I am making right now with bitcoin profits by getting as much as I possibly could before I retire.

Yeah, that's why I wouldn't really call it safe haven at all. Gold is the literal definition of safe haven (and in my mind the only one other than a standard fiat like USD). Park your wealth there and it stays the same for a very long time.

Many years ago Swiss franc was the same because of the peg but after they changed it I remember in forex days you can't even rely on it as much now.

As much as I love Bitcoin, you honestly can't tell how much it will be in 5 or 10 years. I believe much more, but I gold is more certain to hold value safely.

Don Pedro Dinero

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Quote from: posi on July 10, 2023, 12:25:40 AM

Holding 4 years minimum can't be called a safe haven, I think it's an investment.

What you think does not define what a safe haven is.

Quote from: Blitzboy on July 10, 2023, 01:58:51 AM

A "safe haven" does not necessarily guarantee peace and quiet.

Yes, despite the fact that more than half of the respondents do not want to know and make categorical statements about it.

Quote from: Outhue on July 10, 2023, 02:03:33 AM

A safe haven? That's a very wrong way to put it OP.

Bitcoin is a very volatile digital asset,

Another one who doesn't get it

Quote from: Plaguedeath on July 10, 2023, 03:48:25 AM

I'd say there's no currency or asset is safe haven except agriculture.

Check Bitcoin, gold, real estate, stock etc during bad economy situation e.g. the recent is coronavirus pandemic, you will see all of them were declining.

Right. But there are those who talk nonsense about it, such as the following:

Quote from: Ever-young on July 10, 2023, 05:34:07 AM

Safe heaven mean the asset won't experience any form of negative impact on its price and value.

Yes? Give an example of those safe havens that according to you never go down in price.

Wimex

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Certainly the panorama that you illustrate is quite bleak... the volatility of the current economy is highly unpredictable, I had previously commented in the economics section that the possibility of globalized deflation can even be contemplated, different aspects that we see today in the economy have that unfavorable scenario plagued by fear and panic... and if for that reason it is better to look for alternatives that in one way or another make us feel that our capital is not going to be in the ground... and although you comment that Bitcoin is a great idea to counteract this, lately I have raised the hypothesis that keeping all my money in BTC is not such a good idea either, just a part of my capital… well as I said it is better than Fiat… but on the other hand I see an option of using gold even better, as some comment here, for many years it has always been the number one option to safeguard money. That's why one part in Bitcoin another in gold and... UST could also be an option in my opinion.

imamusma

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I still can't convince myself to make bitcoin a long-term store of value despite an economic recession. So far bitcoin is an investment asset that allows me to earn returns, nothing more. Certainly not because I don't believe in bitcoin, but because I haven't gotten to the stage of having that mindset making bitcoin a store of value.

I don't care what other people say whether they agree with my mindset or not, but it's a decision I have to make considering my own economic condition and one other thing.

Sayeds56

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Quote from: yazher on July 10, 2023, 06:02:42 AM

For some reason, the bitcoins price is increasing maybe because investors don't want their money to get affected by the recent economic recession. When they put their money into bitcoins the price will surely increase and will gonna attract more investors to change their minds also now wanted to buy some bitcoins not only to save their money but also to get a chance to multiply it when the bitcoin price will spike due to this event. this is in fact a good thing when they want to increase their money and choose bitcoins to convert it.

In my perspective, Bitcoin is a safe haven for all those who strongly believe in its characteristic of hedge against inflation and one of the best assets to hold for long term, with potential of substantial rewards. Bitcoin price is increasing due to ETT requests submitted by many financial institution including BlackRock. The market has welcomed this move and development has generated sense of optimism and driving increased interest among investors. Currently, Bitcoin is currently trading around $30,700 and next resistance level is around $31,600 which is a strong resistance. If Bitcoin surpasses this level then we may see strong buying momentum in the market.

justdimin

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Quote from: slaman29 on July 10, 2023, 03:57:40 AM

I agree it's a "Safe haven" for a long period of time. Compared to currencies like my own and all the friends I know who struggle every day with daily expenses rising and costs of everything going up while salary remains the same and savings interest isn't matching inflation.

But BTC vs USD ever since the economic recession has been terrible, USD hit all time highs against so many currencies while BTC is still less than 50% of USD ATH. So what's this talk about safe haven? Why can't Bitcoin just be a normal long-term savings 10-year value going up deal?

That long period of time part is the most important part and yes I agree that it's a safe haven for a long period of time but not so much for the short term at all. I know that it's not going to be that easy to do something like this and then go ahead and just end up with a bad result in the first week and leave, that would be bad.

If you invest, you should invest knowing that bitcoin would be a good profit maker for you on the very long term, but you can't be expecting that to have a good return in the first month or two. I hope to retire by the time I am 40-45, which means I have a bit more time before that, and I base that on how much I am making right now with bitcoin profits by getting as much as I possibly could before I retire.

Doan9269

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We are all investing on bitcoin because we want to make use of the chances of getting our digital asset more secured and profitable, when we invest in bitcoin, we can easily go to sleep with our eyes closed and leave the investment to stay long over the time to yield more of its kind, in this same way, we cannot concluded that bitcoin is a safe haven for financial crisis or scam, rather a means of having our investment secured for maximum profitability within some period of time, we can also consider how the market economy of the traditional currency is going, bitcoin isn't affected by inflation or any government implementation policy to determine how it works, the more the economy run under the fear or recession the stronger the bitcoin network becomes as a safe haven over recession because it is decentralized, profitable and inflation free.

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Quote from: Wend on July 09, 2023, 05:39:42 PM

No, how can a highly volatile asset become a safe haven? When it comes to a safe haven, it means that the asset is stable, unaffected by a recession or crisis. Gold will be our safe haven in times of crisis, not bitcoin. The proof is you look at what happened during the crisis in 2022 when inflation peaked due to covid and war, and bitcoin depreciated more than 80%, how can it be called a safe haven?

The original purpose of bitcoin was created with limited supply to fight crisis and inflation. But so far, it is being used as a highly volatile and speculative asset, so it is not yet a safe haven.

Perfectly elucidated mate. Bitcoin can never be a safe haven because of it’s high risk of losing due to highly volatile and unpredictable market. Although I would agree that it’s the best option for investment during recession or when inflation is high, but bitcoin cannot guarantee it’s full profitability despite of its high potentials as an investment. However, if you say safe haven, I would rather suggest investing in real estate or landed properties knowing its value will never depreciate but instead its value will consistently surge high.

Z390

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Not entirely a safe haven for everyone, if you plan to stay with Bitcoin for years to come then it's a safe haven for someone like you, but if you are the type that has many financial problems that needs to be solved, your first approach should be more income stream, and believe me, it's not Bitcoin, you need to come up with a service that people would need from you and you get paid in the process, fix your financial problem and when you start making enough then start thinking about investing in Bitcoin.

Don't Invest in bitcoin because someone told you that Banks are bad, you will start panicking once you see your 100$ that you aren't ready to see going down starts going down, it's because you are not making money through other means, Bitcoin investment is not for those that have no jobs.

Banks could be bad because you aren't making money when you keep your money in the Banks but if 100$ is all you get, you need to eat man, you need to survive, the solution is JOB, not Bitcoin.

yazher

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For some reason, the bitcoins price is increasing maybe because investors don't want their money to get affected by the recent economic recession. When they put their money into bitcoins the price will surely increase and will gonna attract more investors to change their minds also now wanted to buy some bitcoins not only to save their money but also to get a chance to multiply it when the bitcoin price will spike due to this event. this is in fact a good thing when they want to increase their money and choose bitcoins to convert it.

Ever-young

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Safe heaven mean the asset won't experience any form of negative impact on its price and value. But I don't see Bitcoin as such, Bitcoin happens to be volatile in nature which could even make the holders have a worst expirence compare to what the economic recession might have caused, this could be as a result of a heavy price drop on Bitcoin price. When the price of Bitcoin happens to drop very high which where investors could be recording up to 30-40% loses on their capital in such a case I don't see Bitcoin as a sure heaven.

The only difference between keepings your assets in terms of economy recession, is base on the fact that Bitcoin price could be one an either results which could either be positive or negative. And the user won't have to worry about bankruptcy providing that it's Bitcoin is being stored in an None-custodial wallet where full control is in his possession.

tread93

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The economic outlook for the US looks pretty rough ngl. The US has put some bandaids on by raising the debt ceiling but when the US defaults on its loans and can no longer delay it and inflation continues at this rate it will cause a huge effect on all global markets to the brink of collapse. One would think that in these conditions that BTC would have a chance to shoot up and find a new all time high, its certainly possible! Only time will tell what will happen.

slaman29

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I agree it's a "Safe haven" for a long period of time. Compared to currencies like my own and all the friends I know who struggle every day with daily expenses rising and costs of everything going up while salary remains the same and savings interest isn't matching inflation.

But BTC vs USD ever since the economic recession has been terrible, USD hit all time highs against so many currencies while BTC is still less than 50% of USD ATH. So what's this talk about safe haven? Why can't Bitcoin just be a normal long-term savings 10-year value going up deal?

Plaguedeath

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I'd say there's no currency or asset is safe haven except agriculture.

Check Bitcoin, gold, real estate, stock etc during bad economy situation e.g. the recent is coronavirus pandemic, you will see all of them were declining. It's because there's not many people have idle money to invest due to fired from the company or the business become not profitable.

But anyone will still need to buy foods to survive, this make agriculture has no impact with bad economy situation. It's not mean agriculture has no risk, every investment has always a risk.

WatChe

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Quote from: Outhue on July 10, 2023, 02:03:33 AM

A safe haven? That's a very wrong way to put it OP.

Bitcoin is a very volatile digital asset, it's not recommendable for those who want to store value for some time, if you want to do that I think CBDC is better if it's already functioning in your country, USD stable coins are good too but I can't say that they are completely safe either.

You can store your 30,000$ in Bitcoin right now and in a week time your 30,000$ turn into 27,000$, that means you are down 3,000$, it's better to store money that you are ready to use as investment in Bitcoin only, not a safe haven that can maintain your exact amount of dollar, you can lose some or gain some, that's why it should be treated as an investment asset.

Volatility is the main reason Bitcoin still is not getting mass adoption and is also the reason of its massive popularity. The volatility of Bitcoin is in both direction i.e. in up and down both directions. Even the currency rates these days are not stable as inflation is high all around the world. If one think that Bitcoin is not a safe place to store Bitcoin then neither is Fiat currency.
If you are keeping your money in Bitcoin for long term then surely you will get good ROI but if you are looking to invest for a week or two then you wont get real benefit of Bitcoin.

Outhue

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A safe haven? That's a very wrong way to put it OP.

Bitcoin is a very volatile digital asset, it's not recommendable for those who want to store value for some time, if you want to do that I think CBDC is better if it's already functioning in your country, USD stable coins are good too but I can't say that they are completely safe either.

You can store your 30,000$ in Bitcoin right now and in a week time your 30,000$ turn into 27,000$, that means you are down 3,000$, it's better to store money that you are ready to use as investment in Bitcoin only, not a safe haven that can maintain your exact amount of dollar, you can lose some or gain some, that's why it should be treated as an investment asset.

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Quote from: Wend on July 09, 2023, 05:39:42 PM

No, how can a highly volatile asset become a safe haven? When it comes to a safe haven, it means that the asset is stable, unaffected by a recession or crisis. Gold will be our safe haven in times of crisis, not bitcoin. The proof is you look at what happened during the crisis in 2022 when inflation peaked due to covid and war, and bitcoin depreciated more than 80%, how can it be called a safe haven?

The original purpose of bitcoin was created with limited supply to fight crisis and inflation. But so far, it is being used as a highly volatile and speculative asset, so it is not yet a safe haven.

A "safe haven" does not necessarily guarantee peace and quiet. Bitcoin doesnt have to conform to the textbook definition of a "safe haven" in order to serve that function.

Bitcoin's high return potential is a direct result of its volatility. While its true that Bitcoin's value fell during the financial crisis, a lot of so-called "stable" assets suffered, too. What counts most is development and growth after a catastrophe has occurred. Bitcoin's resilience suggests it may be used to weather economic storms.

Remember that Bitcoin is a technological breakthrough as well as a financial asset. The promise of blockchain technology is what gives it true value, not its current market price. Bitcoin's true strength lies in its potential to radically alter the monetary system in ways the world has only just begun to grasp.

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Well, we can only look at the history to see what will happen in the future... because it tends to repeat it self. What did people in Greece / Zimbabwe / Cyprus do when their economy nearly collapsed? The Banks closed their branches and ATMs to prevent a Bank run and they limited the withdrawals of the clients. (Hyper inflation nearly killed the value of their local currencies)

Then people realized that their wealth are being eaten by hyper inflation and they started to buy bitcoins. (Some people bought Gold and precious metals) .... so people saw the potential to use Bitcoin as a safe heaven.

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Quote from: Don Pedro Dinero on July 09, 2023, 10:59:23 PM

It is as simple as that to be a safe haven you have to HODL it for at least 4 year periods. Volatility has nothing to do with it. Look at the graph of gold at the time of hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic. Wasn't gold a safe haven then either?

Holding 4 years minimum can't be called a safe haven, I think it's an investment. Because in my opinion, gold is a safe haven because we can sell it whenever we need money, and we hardly lose value.
It is not entirely true to say that bitcoin is not a safe haven, but given what bitcoin has achieved so far, it is not yet a safe haven. Bitcoin remains a highly volatile speculative asset with an uncertain future. But over time, as it becomes widely recognized and accepted, bitcoin will become a hedge against inflation as well as a safe haven.

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Quote from: dothebeats on July 09, 2023, 02:03:18 PM

This has been talked about countless of times here in the forum. As I always say, bitcoin can be used as a means to safekeep the value of assets while the world around us is melting.

Yes.

Quote from: Wend on July 09, 2023, 05:39:42 PM

No, how can a highly volatile asset become a safe haven?

It is as simple as that to be a safe haven you have to HODL it for at least 4 year periods. Volatility has nothing to do with it. Look at the graph of gold at the time of hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic. Wasn't gold a safe haven then either?

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