You can't just do a straight division.
That's why I wrote, "the next address generated", not "probability that any two addresses collide".
Approximate probability of collision between any two addresses can be calculated the following simple way:
obviously, the first address can't collide with another address, probability for the second to collide with the first is 1/2^160, for the third it is 2/2^160, 4'th 3/2^160, it is easy to see, that it is an arithmetical progression.
Total probability that any two addresses collide approximately equals the sum of the progression, and can be written as: P = n^2/2^
161, where n - is the amount of bitcoin addresses in use.
For 2.1*10^15 addresses it gives us: 1.5*10^-18
This calculation is simplified a bit. However, the result should be very close to the exact result.