Bitcoin Addresses: What happens after 20 years? - page 2.

tertius993

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Quote from: S4VV4S on June 17, 2014, 12:32:00 PM

Quote from: tertius993 on June 17, 2014, 12:28:48 PM

Or as my brother puts it "The lottery is a tax on imbeciles."

And as true as what you said may be, a lot of people "gamble" on it and quite a few actually become (multi)-millionaires from it....
If your lucky then your lucky.....
That being said, I don't gamble.

Of course, and I'm happy to be an imbecile myself from time to time, but it's still worryingly true ...

S4VV4S

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Quote from: tertius993 on June 17, 2014, 12:28:48 PM

Quote from: DannyHamilton on June 17, 2014, 12:22:00 PM

Quote from: Eotnak on June 17, 2014, 12:16:13 PM

Quote from: DannyHamilton on June 17, 2014, 11:59:06 AM

If you are trying to find a private key that will allow you to spend the bitcoins associated with a particular bitcoin address...

There are 2¹⁶⁰ possible addresses.
2¹⁶⁰ = 1.46 X 10⁴⁸

So, the odds of finding such a private key are 1 in 1.46 X 10⁴⁸

The odds of winning the NY lottery 6 numbers Y times in a row are:
1 in 45,057,474^Y

45,057,474⁶ = 8.37 X 10⁴⁵

45,057,474⁷ = 3.77 X 10⁵³

So the odds of finding such a private key are a bit better than winning the NY lottery 7 times in a row.

Math is awesome, thanks!! I wish I was better at it. I thought the odds were actually going to be a lot more distant than that...but then when I thought about it, Those are the odds of a single person buying a single ticket on 7 different drawings and winning every time. That person cannot ever have purchased a ticket in the past, or ever again in the future...Or as you put it, 7 times in a row.

This would be why I generally don't bother playing the lottery. People don't realize how much the odds are stacked against them. Winning multiple times on a single ticket each time multiplies those already astonomical odds to dizzying heights.

The best description I've heard of for government run lotteries is:

"A lottery is a government tax levied on the absence of mathematical skills."

Or as my brother puts it "The lottery is a tax on imbeciles."

And as true as what you said may be, a lot of people "gamble" on it and quite a few actually become (multi)-millionaires from it....
If your lucky then your lucky.....
That being said, I don't gamble.

tertius993

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Activity: 1029

Merit: 712

Quote from: DannyHamilton on June 17, 2014, 12:22:00 PM

Quote from: Eotnak on June 17, 2014, 12:16:13 PM

Quote from: DannyHamilton on June 17, 2014, 11:59:06 AM

If you are trying to find a private key that will allow you to spend the bitcoins associated with a particular bitcoin address...

There are 2¹⁶⁰ possible addresses.
2¹⁶⁰ = 1.46 X 10⁴⁸

So, the odds of finding such a private key are 1 in 1.46 X 10⁴⁸

The odds of winning the NY lottery 6 numbers Y times in a row are:
1 in 45,057,474^Y

45,057,474⁶ = 8.37 X 10⁴⁵

45,057,474⁷ = 3.77 X 10⁵³

So the odds of finding such a private key are a bit better than winning the NY lottery 7 times in a row.

Math is awesome, thanks!! I wish I was better at it. I thought the odds were actually going to be a lot more distant than that...but then when I thought about it, Those are the odds of a single person buying a single ticket on 7 different drawings and winning every time. That person cannot ever have purchased a ticket in the past, or ever again in the future...Or as you put it, 7 times in a row.

This would be why I generally don't bother playing the lottery. People don't realize how much the odds are stacked against them. Winning multiple times on a single ticket each time multiplies those already astonomical odds to dizzying heights.

The best description I've heard of for government run lotteries is:

"A lottery is a government tax levied on the absence of mathematical skills."

Or as my brother puts it "The lottery is a tax on imbeciles."

DannyHamilton

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Activity: 3416

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Quote from: Eotnak on June 17, 2014, 12:16:13 PM

Quote from: DannyHamilton on June 17, 2014, 11:59:06 AM

If you are trying to find a private key that will allow you to spend the bitcoins associated with a particular bitcoin address...

There are 2¹⁶⁰ possible addresses.
2¹⁶⁰ = 1.46 X 10⁴⁸

So, the odds of finding such a private key are 1 in 1.46 X 10⁴⁸

The odds of winning the NY lottery 6 numbers Y times in a row are:
1 in 45,057,474^Y

45,057,474⁶ = 8.37 X 10⁴⁵

45,057,474⁷ = 3.77 X 10⁵³

So the odds of finding such a private key are a bit better than winning the NY lottery 7 times in a row.

Math is awesome, thanks!! I wish I was better at it. I thought the odds were actually going to be a lot more distant than that...but then when I thought about it, Those are the odds of a single person buying a single ticket on 7 different drawings and winning every time. That person cannot ever have purchased a ticket in the past, or ever again in the future...Or as you put it, 7 times in a row.

This would be why I generally don't bother playing the lottery. People don't realize how much the odds are stacked against them. Winning multiple times on a single ticket each time multiplies those already astonomical odds to dizzying heights.

The best description I've heard of for government run lotteries is:

"A lottery is a government tax levied on the absence of mathematical skills."

Eotnak

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Activity: 117

Merit: 10

Quote from: DannyHamilton on June 17, 2014, 11:59:06 AM

Quote from: Eotnak on June 17, 2014, 11:52:06 AM

Quote from: DannyHamilton on June 17, 2014, 10:56:17 AM

Quote from: Eotnak on June 17, 2014, 10:54:15 AM

Page 3 and no sphere pic.

I always enjoy the analogies of these threads. They're different every time. I'd like to know the actual odds of creating duplicate addresses vs. 1000 people winning the lottery everyday for a year. Give me some time and I'll do it myself...

Which lottery? There are hundreds of them, and they each have different odds.

Fair enough. NY Lottery 6 numbers, chances of 1 person winning 1 time is 1 in 45,057,474

If you are trying to find a private key that will allow you to spend the bitcoins associated with a particular bitcoin address...

There are 2¹⁶⁰ possible addresses.
2¹⁶⁰ = 1.46 X 10⁴⁸

So, the odds of finding such a private key are 1 in 1.46 X 10⁴⁸

The odds of winning the NY lottery 6 numbers Y times in a row are:
1 in 45,057,474^Y

45,057,474⁶ = 8.37 X 10⁴⁵

45,057,474⁷ = 3.77 X 10⁵³

So the odds of finding such a private key are a bit better than winning the NY lottery 7 times in a row.

Math is awesome, thanks!! I wish I was better at it. I thought the odds were actually going to be a lot more distant than that...but then when I thought about it, Those are the odds of a single person buying a single ticket on 7 different drawings and winning every time. That person cannot ever have purchased a ticket in the past, or ever again in the future...Or as you put it, 7 times in a row.

DannyHamilton

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Quote from: Eotnak on June 17, 2014, 11:52:06 AM

Quote from: DannyHamilton on June 17, 2014, 10:56:17 AM

Quote from: Eotnak on June 17, 2014, 10:54:15 AM

Page 3 and no sphere pic.

I always enjoy the analogies of these threads. They're different every time. I'd like to know the actual odds of creating duplicate addresses vs. 1000 people winning the lottery everyday for a year. Give me some time and I'll do it myself...

Which lottery? There are hundreds of them, and they each have different odds.

Fair enough. NY Lottery 6 numbers, chances of 1 person winning 1 time is 1 in 45,057,474

If you are trying to find a private key that will allow you to spend the bitcoins associated with a particular bitcoin address...

There are 2¹⁶⁰ possible addresses.
2¹⁶⁰ = 1.46 X 10⁴⁸

So, the odds of finding such a private key are 1 in 1.46 X 10⁴⁸

The odds of winning the NY lottery 6 numbers Y times in a row are:
1 in 45,057,474^Y

45,057,474⁶ = 8.37 X 10⁴⁵

45,057,474⁷ = 3.77 X 10⁵³

So the odds of finding such a private key are a bit better than winning the NY lottery 7 times in a row.

Eotnak

member

Activity: 117

Merit: 10

Quote from: DannyHamilton on June 17, 2014, 10:56:17 AM

Quote from: Eotnak on June 17, 2014, 10:54:15 AM

Page 3 and no sphere pic.

I always enjoy the analogies of these threads. They're different every time. I'd like to know the actual odds of creating duplicate addresses vs. 1000 people winning the lottery everyday for a year. Give me some time and I'll do it myself...

Which lottery? There are hundreds of them, and they each have different odds.

Fair enough. NY Lottery 6 numbers, chances of 1 person winning 1 time is 1 in 45,057,474

http://nylottery.ny.gov/wps/portal/!ut/p/c4/04_SB8K8xLLM9MSSzPy8xBz9CP0os_jggBC3kDBPE0MLC0dnA09vT0fLQDNvA0dfU_2CbEdFALm-TnU!/?PC_7_SPTFTVI4188AC0IKIA9Q6K0QS0_WCM_CONTEXT=/wps/wcm/connect/NYSL+Content+Library/NYSL+Internet+Site/Home/Jackpot+Games/LOTTO/Lotto+-+Chances+of+Winning

DannyHamilton

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Quote from: Syke on June 17, 2014, 11:06:02 AM

It's simple, really. If you somehow had vast amounts of computing power, you could mine all of the rest of the bitcoins faster than you could crack a single address.

All you need to do that is to maintain more than 50% of the total network hashing power for the next 125 years or so.

It's often called a 51% attack.

Syke

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It's simple, really. If you somehow had vast amounts of computing power, you could mine all of the rest of the bitcoins faster than you could crack a single address.

DannyHamilton

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Activity: 3416

Merit: 4658

Quote from: Eotnak on June 17, 2014, 10:54:15 AM

Page 3 and no sphere pic.

I always enjoy the analogies of these threads. They're different every time. I'd like to know the actual odds of creating duplicate addresses vs. 1000 people winning the lottery everyday for a year. Give me some time and I'll do it myself...

Which lottery? There are hundreds of them, and they each have different odds.

Eotnak

member

Activity: 117

Merit: 10

Page 3 and no sphere pic.

I always enjoy the analogies of these threads. They're different every time. I'd like to know the actual odds of creating duplicate addresses vs. 1000 people winning the lottery everyday for a year. Give me some time and I'll do it myself...

AuroraHF

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Merit: 500

It'll take literally forever to run out of unique addresses. So don't worry about it, it won't even be used up even after hundreds of years.

maok

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Quote from: Timmmaahh on June 17, 2014, 07:42:48 AM

There are currently around 200.000 adresses in use:

https://blockchain.info/de/charts/n-unique-addresses

The chance to hit a address in use is about:

1.34*10^-43 %

0.000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,013,4 %

the number you give is the daily count which is more likely ~150.000 addresses used daily. The number of users on blockchain.info alone is approaching 2 millions( https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users), if you count all other wallets users its a figure of nearly 5 millions users or more. Nevertheless he chance of address collision is still vvvvvvvery low.

S4VV4S

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Activity: 1582

Merit: 502

Quote from: Lauda on June 17, 2014, 08:33:48 AM

Quote from: nkocevar on May 28, 2014, 06:47:34 PM

At my current calculations it would take all 7 billion people in the world to use 2,087,859,481,901,289,883,148 addresses. in other words, they would all have to generate 114,403,259,282,262,459 a day for 50 YEARS to run out of addresses. Running out of addresses is unfathomable.

Or in other words, that will never happen.

One shouldn't worry about this, these is enough room for everyone to have many addresses.

I am not worried anymore. I was working on something that uses a new address each time.
That's why I was asking Wink

Quote from: ljudotina on June 17, 2014, 08:36:27 AM

Add adresses and wallets that are intentionaly deleted after some time etc. Not only there is shitload of them, they recicyle too. Cool stuff if you ask me. It's really hard to express how large this numbers are to someone not close to mathematic and phisics. For example i tryed to explain this to my father and i just gave up after some time. Now that i have this block of text (name of number) i think it's gonna be much closer to him....just to see how freaking long does it take to pronounce it

It is quite long innit? Grin

ljudotina

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Add adresses and wallets that are intentionaly deleted after some time etc. Not only there is shitload of them, they recicyle too. Cool stuff if you ask me. It's really hard to express how large this numbers are to someone not close to mathematic and phisics. For example i tryed to explain this to my father and i just gave up after some time. Now that i have this block of text (name of number) i think it's gonna be much closer to him....just to see how freaking long does it take to pronounce it

Lauda

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Activity: 2674

Merit: 2965

Terminated.

Quote from: nkocevar on May 28, 2014, 06:47:34 PM

At my current calculations it would take all 7 billion people in the world to use 2,087,859,481,901,289,883,148 addresses. in other words, they would all have to generate 114,403,259,282,262,459 a day for 50 YEARS to run out of addresses. Running out of addresses is unfathomable.

Or in other words, that will never happen.

One shouldn't worry about this, these is enough room for everyone to have many addresses.

S4VV4S

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Activity: 1582

Merit: 502

Quote from: rarkenin on June 17, 2014, 08:29:42 AM

Quote from: Timmmaahh on June 17, 2014, 08:21:45 AM

1 Point 46 Quindecillion

Let me provide more significant figures in my wording:

One quindecillion, four hundred sixty-one quattuordecillion, five hundred one tredecillion, six hundred thirty-seven duodecillion, three hundred thirty undecillion, nine hundred two decillion, nine hundred eighteen nonillion, two hundred three octillion, six hundred eighty-four septillion, eight hundred thirty-two sextillion, seven hundred sixteen quintillion, two hundred eighty-three quadrillion, nineteen trillion, six hundred fifty-five billion, nine hundred thirty-two million, five hundred fourty-two thousand, nine hundred seventy-six.

Or, http://tts.imtranslator.net/TYni

^^^ We have a winner and it is a paragraph Grin

S4VV4S

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Activity: 1582

Merit: 502

Thanks guys, I was actually expecting to hear the full number Roll Eyes

I am pretty curious to know how long it will be, like a paragraph or so.

rarkenin

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Quote from: Timmmaahh on June 17, 2014, 08:21:45 AM

1 Point 46 Quindecillion

Let me provide more significant figures in my wording:

One quindecillion, four hundred sixty-one quattuordecillion, five hundred one tredecillion, six hundred thirty-seven duodecillion, three hundred thirty undecillion, nine hundred two decillion, nine hundred eighteen nonillion, two hundred three octillion, six hundred eighty-four septillion, eight hundred thirty-two sextillion, seven hundred sixteen quintillion, two hundred eighty-three quadrillion, nineteen trillion, six hundred fifty-five billion, nine hundred thirty-two million, five hundred fourty-two thousand, nine hundred seventy-six.

Or, http://tts.imtranslator.net/TYni

Timmmaahh

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Activity: 98

Merit: 10

1 Point 46 Quindecillion

Cheesy

Topic: Bitcoin Addresses: What happens after 20 years? - page 2. (Read 3930 times)