I have read the post and have reflected some, here are some ramblings.
I think the point that bitcoin has an adoption problem is way over looked. Bitcoin has a huge adoption problem. If it was going to be big, it would have already done it by now. Seriously. It has been around for 5 years. In the tech world, it is a grandfather.
Here is a chart of M-Pesa verses Bitcoin. This is what it looks like when a successful platform takes off and gains traction.
What has M-Pesa done then? For starters, it has appeal to the points of interest that matter. As mentioned in the original post, bitcoin really only works for white, philosophically slanted, techno males. In Africa, M-Pesa appeals to all normal consumers. Furthermore, the governments and the large banks and the businesses all have a reason to adopt it. M-Pesa has taken over half of Kenya's economy by meeting the needs of the points of interest. Bitcoin just isn't meeting needs.
I don't need to explain why businesses and people don't really want to adopt bitcoin. It is slow, difficult to use.... and current existing systems for the average consumer work pretty well. For bitcoin to be bigger than Visa, it needs to be better and that simply isn't the case and won't ever be the case. Case 1: I need an extra computer, need to put special programs on it, need to put bitcoin in cold storage and if I ever spend a bitcoin, then transfer the money to a new account and have that in cold storage. Case 2: Ask my bank to mail me a credit card. It does, now I can pretty much make purchases around the world instantly, oh yeah, with insurance. Are you kidding me?
For bitcoin to become popular, it would need to be a platform that the government likes, the businesses like, and the people like. In this way, it isn't doing so well. Governments are weary, they should be. Governments are legitmized more or less by three factors. They control the money in that area and help regulate the economy. They provide security via police and army. They provide social services. Take away the money, and now governments aren't nearly as powerful.
But.... one thing about bitcoin is amazing. It is the blockchain. In this way, a much better financial system can be built. Lets think for a minute. In a thousand years from now, I gather we won't have money in the way we do know. Who knows? But think about 20 or 50 years from now. Can you imagine anybody using anything but a new and revolutionary technology to pay for things. It surely won't be what we have now. It will be digital, it will be safe, it will be instantaneous, it will be efficient and so on and so on. It will be better than the system we have now in every single way. The blockchain at some point very well might be a part of that.
With the advent of the blockchain, governments and banks are being faced with a dammed if I do, and dammed if I don't scenerio. Changes are coming. New forms of digital payment will be safer, faster, cheaper, and more efficient and the first one's to adapt will see benefits the first. But eventually, as I mentioned sooner or later they will be weakened.
Some people say bitcoin can't be beat, that it has the first mover advantage. I think that is silly. I have written about this before. Visa/Mastercard does more transactions in 5 minutes than bitcoin did in 2013. Furthermore, The bitcoin market cap right now at the point of writing this is a little less than 6 billion. That is nothing. Facebook paid 19 billion for whatsapp. Whatsapp!!!!! A free text messaging app has totally outclassed bitcoin in value. Essentially, what I am saying is bitcoin has a 0.001% market share in the world's economy (not sure on the numbers there, just made them up, but the point remains the same). Bitcoin hasn't been widely adopted and won't be, but it will lead to a 2.0 platform or 3.0 platform that will be much better than what we have now.
The 2.0 platform that wins is one that appeals to governments, appeals to businesses, and appeals to the consumer. For instance, bitcoin needs to beat the credit card model. Right now my credit card gives me money I don't have! It gives me insurance if a purchase is bad, and it gives me miles I can use to buy free plane tickets! And it does it all in seconds. I pay my balance each month and pay no interest. It is a big win for me as a consumer. (Now, I realize that businesses are sticking it to me with higher prices because of this, but that isn't what they average consumer sees). The government wins with credit cards because now there is a digital trail in which businesses have to pay taxes on. Businesses ultimately win because some people spend money they wouldn't have had in the first place. Please tell me how bitcoin can make the consumer, the business and the government happy? I am guessing it can't or it already would have. In someways it provides some anonymity, but we all know that isn't exactly the case. It is good for sending money overseas for sure, but that isn't going to be enough.
Now let me give you a hypothetical 2.0 system. It would be one that allows the US government to act like coinbase and sell it's dollars into cryptocurrency. It would be a system that charges no fees so that businesses would like it, and it would have to be one that consumers would like, maybe giving them anonymity and security. We simply don't have that right now, but I think there are lots of people working hard to make that come true. If such a platform is made, but with even more appeal to business, government, and consumers, it will be widely adapted. If that platform can even get a 1% market share, it will be much larger than bitcoin hands down.
happened to my birth country. Good riddance!