Bitcoin all time high, is it ETF effects or pre halving cycle

philipma1957

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Quote from: Wiwo on March 04, 2024, 06:25:46 AM

Today bitcoin started the week reaching at $65,000 a near former all time high price, and this new stabilized bitcoin 65k price indices make alot of presumptions and many bitcoin price speculators are in bullish mode to state an obviously possible reality that bitcoin may break the former all time high price (ATH) of $69,000+ previous record before the bitcoin halving cycle to occure.

Although if bitcoin make a new all time high before the next bitcoin halving, it makes it the second time in bitcoin history and chart 📉📈 where bitcoin attain all time high prior few days to the next halving.

The question now is, are we going to see that happening very soon and what is you expected benchmark before the next halving cycle.

So we hit an alltime high.

I believe in ETF a “different” ½ ing it is more like a 35-42% drop not 49-51% drop.

Lastly no covid which helps supply chain allowing many miners and good supply chain.

Troytech

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Quote from: STT on March 10, 2024, 07:25:02 PM

ETF effects are long term and halvening is a diminishing effect but also is mostly an impact over time not just an event. Both of them are probably something applying over a year or more like vice being wound not an explosive change like some might hope. Obviously the market jumps around and tries to guess ahead, we are positive no doubt but outside of speculation the actual changes are over time and year plus also.

I think it's quite obvious about now, the ETF approval has done quite the job of bringing new money into bitcoin and fast, they are sure behind the price surge and bitcoin has broken its normal historical record of reaching a new ATH after halving but this time it happened so differently and yeah you can see recent consolidation around 73k to 70k and I think some investors that bought at 35k are already cashing out profits or most persons are expecting a prehalving dip, but from what you have said the ETF approval would have a more lasting effect on bitcoin and might bring us into a new ear of market steam where we might rarely have very long bulls and bears after this one cause if they continue buying from the current supply it would continue to lump the bitcoin price and the halving news is just to create a tension for people not to sell too early cause of the hype of halving and what it does to the price but what has happened so far is all ETF

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Quote from: Lucius on March 04, 2024, 07:49:44 AM

Quote from: Oshosondy on March 04, 2024, 06:31:20 AM

The more reason is that people have waited until 2024/2025 which they think would be the bull period and we are in 2024 already. The bitcoin ETF that United States SEC approved is also part of the reasons for the bull run. The greed has increased significantly and people are just holding.
~snip~

Spot ETFs are not part of the reason, but actually the main reason why the price is rising. If you look at the amount of BTC they buy every day and if we consider that in less than two months they bought a little less than 350 000 BTC, then it is clear that the law of supply and demand is at work.

Doesn't the speculation about the future activity of Spot ETF affects this current demand in the Bitcoin market? Spot ETF might not have given a huge volume in terms of purchase but the psychological effect of the speculation made by the hype greatly influence the market.

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It is true that many are now waiting for their exit point, and I am sure that the price of $100 000 when it is reached will very likely be the trigger for many to sell.

Or another trigger for the price to explode further since reaching $100k can even hype the market due to having a new milestone achievement by Bitcoin market. We know how crazy the Bitcoin market is, it often performs things that we are not expecting.

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Bitcoin all time high, is it ETF effects or pre halving cycle

Maybe I'm wrong, but the pre-halving effect has never had such a strong influence on the price, and I don't know why it's hard for people to accept the real truth? It seems to me that many still do not understand the difference between futures BTC ETFs and spot ETFs, but the difference is astronomical in terms of price impact.

I agree, we never had witnessed a pre-halving ATH breaking activity of Bitcoin, this is the first time if I am not mistaken. We often experience that surge some months after the Bitcoin halving, and often times the Bitcoin market movement during pre-halving is sideway, so this current market activity of Bitcoin is really something else, as if the gear is set to its maximum, making me think how crazy would be the price of Bitcoin after the halving.

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Quote from: ololajulo on March 14, 2024, 09:20:55 AM

The current price of Bitcoin is certainly high, which could make it challenging to delay a bull run until after the halving. Investor sentiment would need to stay very positive for a long time to accumulate enough capital to fuel a significant price increase. There will likely be price drops along the way, and the bull run could end unexpectedly like the last one, potentially causing losses for even wealthy investors.

I think it is still possible to accumulate even in the bull run, obvious our profits is not that big if we have accumulate much earlier. But if the end goal is to make profits then I will advise everyone to still continue to DCA no matter what the price is. If there is a correction before the halving then good, if the price continue after the halving then still just stack sats.

ETF though, I read before that the effect is already price in, but where are we right now? New all time high again and again. So we have so many speculations about the ETF but I think we are now just feeling the effect and it could really be one factor why the price is soaring high, because institutional money is flowing in.

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Quote from: ololajulo on March 14, 2024, 09:20:55 AM

The current price of Bitcoin is certainly high, which could make it challenging to delay a bull run until after the halving. Investor sentiment would need to stay very positive for a long time to accumulate enough capital to fuel a significant price increase. There will likely be price drops along the way, and the bull run could end unexpectedly like the last one, potentially causing losses for even wealthy investors.

With the bullish sentiments surrounding in this market, no doubt the price is now at the 70k level and still rising. I have the feeling there are so many newcomers trying to get a hold of some satoshis thinking that it will skyrocket very soon. But knowing this market, one should be very cautious of what they are jumping onto especially if they don't know the market well.

Quote from: STT on March 10, 2024, 07:25:02 PM

ETF effects are long term and halvening is a diminishing effect but also is mostly an impact over time not just an event. Both of them are probably something applying over a year or more like vice being wound not an explosive change like some might hope. Obviously the market jumps around and tries to guess ahead, we are positive no doubt but outside of speculation the actual changes are over time and year plus also.

There is a roller-coaster ride in this market because of the high volatility of the crypto market. The contributing factors are combination of various sources. And so we can't pinpoint the major factors influencing the market.

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The current price of Bitcoin is certainly high, which could make it challenging to delay a bull run until after the halving. Investor sentiment would need to stay very positive for a long time to accumulate enough capital to fuel a significant price increase. There will likely be price drops along the way, and the bull run could end unexpectedly like the last one, potentially causing losses for even wealthy investors.

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Quote from: EL MOHA on March 11, 2024, 01:01:11 PM

Quote from: wxa7115 on March 11, 2024, 12:12:38 AM

But if we are honest, going above the previous ATH is not really that impresive, as almost all the forum members expected for this to happen, the surprising thing during this cycle is the speed at which this is happening, since the halving has not taken place yet and a new ATH has been reached already.

It wasn’t surprising because the hype that would drive the whole trend was spotted right from the long term. If you look at the whole of last year it was overall a bullish year which wasn’t the case for other previous year to the bitcoin halving year. The most obvious reason was when the hype was at its peak in the end of 2023 which base on past trends was supposed to be a bearish period but ETF saga pumped the market and it continue until it’s approval this year. Some investors like myself were expecting a heavy correction then especially with the $50k price broken but it was just a day correction. After That I was definitely expecting ATH before halving

But what surprises us all is the rate or how fast it happened, never we have seen this kind of run before the halving and that's what majority of us didn't expect. But it happened and now it's hard to stop and it could go as high as we want maybe $80k before the halving itself.

Of course there will be some correction, there is no such thing as parabolic growth, but we have seen it already and so I think it will still continue and it will be massive once we go pass the halving next month. So my only advise is to brace ourselves for a huge bull run this year and the following year.

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Quote from: EL MOHA on March 11, 2024, 01:01:11 PM

Quote from: wxa7115 on March 11, 2024, 12:12:38 AM

But if we are honest, going above the previous ATH is not really that impresive, as almost all the forum members expected for this to happen, the surprising thing during this cycle is the speed at which this is happening, since the halving has not taken place yet and a new ATH has been reached already.

It wasn’t surprising because the hype that would drive the whole trend was spotted right from the long term. If you look at the whole of last year it was overall a bullish year which wasn’t the case for other previous year to the bitcoin halving year. The most obvious reason was when the hype was at its peak in the end of 2023 which base on past trends was supposed to be a bearish period but ETF saga pumped the market and it continue until it’s approval this year. Some investors like myself were expecting a heavy correction then especially with the $50k price broken but it was just a day correction. After That I was definitely expecting ATH before halving

Well alot os happening with bitcoin price already after Bitcoin have broken the last bitcoin all time high price, which is a significant milestone achievement for this season and as a pro bitcoin halven gift for it holders, Bitcoin have consistently continue to push toward and uptrend market arena until the halving when we may see a real bull run that will take the market and investors by surprise.

This time around, bitcoin may double it all time high price and at some point even going close to somewhere around $200k before the end of the year 2024.

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Quote from: wxa7115 on March 11, 2024, 12:12:38 AM

But if we are honest, going above the previous ATH is not really that impresive, as almost all the forum members expected for this to happen, the surprising thing during this cycle is the speed at which this is happening, since the halving has not taken place yet and a new ATH has been reached already.

It wasn’t surprising because the hype that would drive the whole trend was spotted right from the long term. If you look at the whole of last year it was overall a bullish year which wasn’t the case for other previous year to the bitcoin halving year. The most obvious reason was when the hype was at its peak in the end of 2023 which base on past trends was supposed to be a bearish period but ETF saga pumped the market and it continue until it’s approval this year. Some investors like myself were expecting a heavy correction then especially with the $50k price broken but it was just a day correction. After That I was definitely expecting ATH before halving

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Quote from: wxa7115 on March 11, 2024, 12:12:38 AM

We barely broke the 70k level, however the correction has been so mild so far, I expect for the bulls to make another attempt to try to break that level once again and firmly establish the price of bitcoin above that level.

But if we are honest, going above the previous ATH is not really that impresive, as almost all the forum members expected for this to happen, the surprising thing during this cycle is the speed at which this is happening, since the halving has not taken place yet and a new ATH has been reached already.

That's right, even though there is a lot of drama and fud that we will see which will make us emotional and stressed, we don't need to rush to conclusions about the market because I think the market correction will one day be able to make prices rise even higher, which if Market capitalization continues to increase and will definitely create new things. record high.

Regarding price, many people believe that after the halving the price of bitcoin will rise where the market will decide which is the ideal bitcoin price.

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Quote from: Ndabagi01 on March 10, 2024, 01:49:31 PM

Quote from: Wiwo on March 04, 2024, 06:25:46 AM

Although if bitcoin make a new all time high before the next bitcoin halving, it makes it the second time in bitcoin history and chart 📉📈 where bitcoin attain all time high prior few days to the next halving.

The question now is, are we going to see that happening very soon and what is you expected benchmark before the next halving cycle.

When you wrote this post, bitcoin had not yet reached its new all-time high, which broke the previous ATH set in November 2021. The bitcoin market's performance and entry into a bullish mode prior to the halving, as well as the market's new all-time high prior to the halving, provide a strong indication of the impact of the spot Bitcoin ETF on the market. People are holding, and no one wants to sell for a loss. Everyone claims to be smart and not miss out on the large profit that awaits them. Bitcoin has yet to break the $69K resistance; when it does, I believe it will rise above $75K before the halving takes place.

We barely broke the 70k level, however the correction has been so mild so far, I expect for the bulls to make another attempt to try to break that level once again and firmly establish the price of bitcoin above that level.

But if we are honest, going above the previous ATH is not really that impresive, as almost all the forum members expected for this to happen, the surprising thing during this cycle is the speed at which this is happening, since the halving has not taken place yet and a new ATH has been reached already.

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Quote from: naikturun on March 07, 2024, 05:02:17 AM

I think if bitcoin reaches a new ATH before the halving this will be the first because in 2017 and 2021 bitcoin reached ATH when it was past the halving period, if this happens will there be a very high mass increase, I mean there will be a lot of money flowing in the crypto market.

An event that is highly anticipated because this is a good sign because, as you said, it is the first thing that ATH occurs before the halving period, hoping that there will be a significant increase.

I believe it is an initial surprise to be able to provide an ATH in 2025 that is higher than in 2021.
Hopefully, that sign will come with $100K being reached by the end of this year, making it easier to raise again.

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ETF effects are long term and halvening is a diminishing effect but also is mostly an impact over time not just an event. Both of them are probably something applying over a year or more like vice being wound not an explosive change like some might hope. Obviously the market jumps around and tries to guess ahead, we are positive no doubt but outside of speculation the actual changes are over time and year plus also.

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Quote from: EL MOHA on March 07, 2024, 07:12:49 PM

Quote from: _BlackStar on March 07, 2024, 06:55:09 PM

-snip-

I actually second your suggestion and I think even the OP himself knows that, bitcoin long term investment is not only about just holding till eternity but also applying the strategy of taking profits from the investment. The whales that actually we see not taking profits also do have targets of a long term to take profits too. Holding of bitcoin also involves the ability to sale at the right time. A clear example was when bitcoin broke the ATH it immediately had a very flash dump which signifies many have placed a withdrawal at that point. This people might be waiting again for may be a dump to get into the market back again. So when people talk of long term holding they definitely have plans of selling

Of course - every bitcoin investor has a plan to sell regardless of whether they want to sell everything or just get their capital back while keeping their profits in bitcoin. Selling at a high price is the plan of all investors in general - but the average experienced investor probably has no plans to sell all of his holding because they really hope for bitcoin's huge long-term potential.

If I have 150 btc that I bought with a budget of $3.75M at an average price of $25K per bitcoin - then it makes sense to sell 54.34 btc to secure the capital budget now instead of hold it all in bitcoin. I will leave profits in bitcoin that I will maintain in the long term without fear of losing my main capital budget again.

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Everything is being frontrun clearly by now:
1) ETF narrative: This was a sell the news event but then the mass buying started, I think nobody predicted so much of an inflow activity and they were expecting the GBTC exodus to dwarf actual demand thus creating another dip but it went 2x instead
2) The halving: The 4 year cycle is still at play, but due the ETF, it is being accelerated at an insane pace. Is this sustainable? we shall see. Who knows, maybe it's the first time ever that we do get an ATH before the halving BUT also the first time we crash below the ATH, so we have to remain vigilant. In my opnion one should be invested anyway just in case it just keeps going higher and there are no more chances to get it below current prices.

I think the market will remain overall bullish unless there is a recession that crashes the sp500, or unless there is some newer drama with BTC being banned at the wallet level, or something with miners, something like that which im sure will come sooner or later.

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Quote from: Wiwo on March 04, 2024, 06:25:46 AM

Although if bitcoin make a new all time high before the next bitcoin halving, it makes it the second time in bitcoin history and chart 📉📈 where bitcoin attain all time high prior few days to the next halving.

The question now is, are we going to see that happening very soon and what is you expected benchmark before the next halving cycle.

When you wrote this post, bitcoin had not yet reached its new all-time high, which broke the previous ATH set in November 2021. The bitcoin market's performance and entry into a bullish mode prior to the halving, as well as the market's new all-time high prior to the halving, provide a strong indication of the impact of the spot Bitcoin ETF on the market. People are holding, and no one wants to sell for a loss. Everyone claims to be smart and not miss out on the large profit that awaits them. Bitcoin has yet to break the $69K resistance; when it does, I believe it will rise above $75K before the halving takes place.

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Quote from: Wiwo on March 07, 2024, 12:44:21 PM

~snip~
Take example those that bought bitcoin below 20k or even $30k there are already in 2x profit's in less than 1 year timeframe, so I support any ability to buy more bitcoin and hodle for long.

If you are doing it only for profit, then the right moment is also a very important factor. It is true that those who bought one or two years ago have already profited today, but the truth is that those who bought during the last bull run may have just had the opportunity to return what they invested, not to mention that they practically haven't yet made no profit.

It is ideal to invest when the price is at the bottom, and then wait for a big bull run to achieve maximum profit - but a lot of people don't even think of buying BTC when the price is in the red because they don't want to wait for years to earn something.

I would say that it is a good financial move to invest part of your regular monthly income in BTC, especially if such an investment is long-term. Of course, you should always keep in mind that such an investment is risky, not only because the price of BTC is volatile, but also because our investment is lurking with other risks that we should be aware of.

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Quote from: _BlackStar on March 07, 2024, 06:55:09 PM

Bitcoin is certainly a great choice for long-term investment - that's because of its potential to grow in price. But maybe you need to realize that the price of bitcoin will not always be high, there are times when the cycle will make the price go down. You need to have a good plan about when to buy and hold and when you should sell - essentially you need to plan when to take advantage of it.

After all – you don't have to imagine things like what happened in the past. Prices could rise 2x to 4x from now - but could also fall lower than expected. Nothing is certain so no matter how great the potential – you still have to consider the risks too.

I actually second your suggestion and I think even the OP himself knows that, bitcoin long term investment is not only about just holding till eternity but also applying the strategy of taking profits from the investment. The whales that actually we see not taking profits also do have targets of a long term to take profits too. Holding of bitcoin also involves the ability to sale at the right time. A clear example was when bitcoin broke the ATH it immediately had a very flash dump which signifies many have placed a withdrawal at that point. This people might be waiting again for may be a dump to get into the market back again. So when people talk of long term holding they definitely have plans of selling

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Quote from: Wiwo on March 07, 2024, 12:44:21 PM

Quote from: Lucius on March 07, 2024, 07:42:52 AM

-snip-

I think at this point, with the relevant cash flow one can effortlessly invest in bitcoin regardless of how long he intend to keep his holdings, since we already have a background understanding that bitcoin is better off with time, which means the longer you hold bitcoin the better it gets since it supply keep getting limited and scarce at certain blocks size which assured investors and increasing rewards.

I bet I will jump on getting more bitcoin if I have the chances to, because it far more better and safer than every other form of investments lately.

Take example those that bought bitcoin below 20k or even $30k there are already in 2x profit's in less than 1 year timeframe, so I support any ability to buy more bitcoin and hodle for long.

Bitcoin is certainly a great choice for long-term investment - that's because of its potential to grow in price. But maybe you need to realize that the price of bitcoin will not always be high, there are times when the cycle will make the price go down. You need to have a good plan about when to buy and hold and when you should sell - essentially you need to plan when to take advantage of it.

After all – you don't have to imagine things like what happened in the past. Prices could rise 2x to 4x from now - but could also fall lower than expected. Nothing is certain so no matter how great the potential – you still have to consider the risks too.

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Quote from: Lucius on March 07, 2024, 07:42:52 AM

Quote from: Ultegra134 on March 07, 2024, 02:23:19 AM

I'm not sure if upset is the right word here, but we had plenty of time and opportunities to acquire more Bitcoin. The bear market lasted quite long, with prices even below $20,000 that lasted months. Opportunities were endless, but unfortunately, I wasn't in the best situation to purchase and stuck to signature campaign earnings. I guess you're right about my approach; the truth is that with an average purchase price of $29,000, I've more than doubled my money and will possibly even triple it in the near future.

The only thing I'm missing is earning more than 3 mBTC per week. Due to the lower value, accumulation was a lot faster than it is now, but that's okay.

Everyone can get into specific life situations where some other things prevent them from doing what they really want in life, but it's good if such things are transient and we can return to our daily routines. I personally had some ideas regarding this bull run that would include some somewhat crazy moves that would allow me to invest a slightly larger amount of BTC that I would keep for at least two years and then sell since I don't pay taxes then - but still I gave up at the last minute because I don't want to gamble with things that simply shouldn't be gambled on.

You always have a chance to add a little extra income, you just need to try to be a little more active in some other places Wink

I think at this point, with the relevant cash flow one can effortlessly invest in bitcoin regardless of how long he intend to keep his holdings, since we already have a background understanding that bitcoin is better off with time, which means the longer you hold bitcoin the better it gets since it supply keep getting limited and scarce at certain blocks size which assured investors and increasing rewards.

I bet I will jump on getting more bitcoin if I have the chances to, because it far more better and safer than every other form of investments lately.

Take example those that bought bitcoin below 20k or even $30k there are already in 2x profit's in less than 1 year timeframe, so I support any ability to buy more bitcoin and hodle for long.

Topic: Bitcoin all time high, is it ETF effects or pre halving cycle (Read 495 times)