Topic: Bitcoin Analysis: Are We Going Up Or Down? (Read 380 times)

Well, honestly, I don't feel like 3k and 4k are any more important than current levels

As there is nothing significant about them either. We have already broken out of the 4k resistance level a few times in the last couple months and so what? If it comes to real resistance and support, I think it would be more like 1k as a support level and 5k as an ultimate ceiling. And I'm not sure about 1k being the final support at all. Indeed, it may take a few months as well as a few dead-cat bounces down the road till we get there (if we ever get there in the first place), but once we are there, there is not much that could prevent us from going lower because all support will already be crushed on the way there

Bitcoin may still be going down. As to what i've read in the news, due to clear lack of major buying interest and fundamental support, this cryptocurrency may see significantly further losses on large time frames. Moreover, the postponement of much awaited events for the month of January [ETF debut, Bakkt platform and Ethereum Constantinople] plays a part to the bearish influence on the broad market. As there are no major events or market updates expected in near future, this trend is likely to continue through the first half of February.

After a long dragging drop since the year 2018 until this day and it has a range of 3k-4k dollars, no speculation was right even though those well-known people out there they didn't guess the market. They probably used technical analysis but nothing happens, because the market is still unpredictable. So, why we just having a meaningless analysis that we expect the wrong speculation or the best thing to do is let the time can tell and patiently wait the market will grow, no TA's involve.

there is nothing significant about $3500, it is just a random number and going up and down above and below it is just the daily changes or fluctuations of this market which are also meaningless. what matters most is the major numbers that shape up supports and resistances. in current state the $3000 and $4000 are the support and resistance respectively and if we break either of those then it becomes important.

5k is our new ceiling like 12k had been before and 8k became soon thereafter, so get used to it. I remember that short-lived reversal in October last year when Bitcoin rose from its then current 6-7k range to almost 8k (but didn't touch that mark). And in a couple of weeks the price started its free fall down to 3k. In the same manner, 5k will be our new resistance near which we should expect quite a lot of bagholders to leave the crypto scene calling it a day for good. In actuality, though, it will be anywhere around 4.5k as most people will be undercutting each other on their way out. This is a pessimistic scenario

What an optimistic one might look like is beyond my imagination

No doubt. It's quite long time Bitcoin price fails to remain above $3500, most likely to reject that level. But, anything is possible so far there is no parameter. Bitcoin is completely unpredictable likely possible anything would happen in just overnight.

actually the chart looks like it is flat lining also known as the stable phase which accompanied by the high volume shows the accumulation that is taking place in the background and is ongoing still.

as for analysis, it is hard to analyze anything at times like this. we know that there has been a large drop so far, we also know that the $3k buy support is very strong and we also know that bitcoin is s till very new, unpredictable and also growing. all of which means that the chances of price starting to rise soon is pretty high. if I were a gambling man I would start placing my bets about it.

I don't know if bitcoin going up or down, but as you can see in the chart looks like it will going down, but it can go up anytime. Well time can tell when will pump the bitcoin price.

We just crossed the second month of this year so it's hard to say that there's no good news coming around in the next eight months. So I'm still bullish that something will happen and even try to retest the $5k'ish price again.

I'm assuming that you are taking about the 2020 bitcoin block halving. Yes, this is one good news that we all have been waiting for, so why not take the opportunity this year to accumulate and take advantage either short or long term profits?

Like in headline, bitcoin price is going up or down, there are not many others way where bitcoin can go. I think we are holding a good position, and there are many good news about bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, things are moving, summits, conventions, new deals, big names, in one moment all hard work will pay off and we will see price moving up again, until that point there is not much to do except to continue to work even harder, and to not stop believing.

My analysis of the current condition of bitcoin is still going to go down, to be able to make the condition of bitcoin prices rise then there must be good news and it looks like good news will only occur in 2020 according to the good news that might occur with Bitcoin

mainstream commentators and technical analysts alike have been getting increasingly bearish. most people are expecting darker days ahead and everyone generally seems pessimistic. compare that sentiment to when we were trading in the $6000s---almost everyone was bullish and we were commonly seeing predictions for a new ATH. that should tell you that we're near the bottom.

when everyone is a pessimist or a skeptic, the tide is probably turning. bulls need patience though. this bottom could take months to flesh out.

Bulls and bears are both getting chopped up in this short term noise. My bias is still slightly bullish, with sights on $5K+. The ultimate target depends on timing. Over the mid term, I'm looking for a test of the 20-week MA area, so anywhere sub-$5,500 seems possible for a major top. That's what the chart tells me anyway.

Sentiment seems a pretty bullish right now though. We may need to retest the bottom first.

I think people get too caught up in the idea of bitcoin only having a limited supply based on how many coins are mined each day. That's not entirely true. What should be considered is market demand and market supply. that is how many people are willing to sell at any given price. Supply can fluctuate greatly just as demand can when considering it in this way.

I agree with this, the price does not seem to be trending it is just ranging, and when the price is moving close to a certain level and not doing much that is the perfect moment for long term holders to buy bitcoin, but even if I think that is what we are seeing it seems some traders are predicting new lows during the next weeks, something which obviously I do not want to see but I cannot deny there is a chance that could happen.

I'm also expecting that the price will go to at least 2430, because of the ascending long term support line crossing there now on the weekly graphic. But I wouldn't be surprised if it went to the next support ascending line now at 2100.
Buying at those values and holding long term might be a smart move, but only with a part of the capital.
Because if these two lines are breached, we can have a flash crash to values below 1500. There are very long term lines on the weekly graphic passing at around 1400 and 1150.
At these values, we will see real panic. Usually, the best moments to buy and hold.
Because forget about guessing the right precise best moment to buy. Waiting for that means losing all opportunities. These are always risky decisions. It's just a matter of balancing risk and reward.
One thing is probably right: even if bitcoin was heading to its end, it wouldn't go down without at least a final strong rally which would fail to make a new high, but would be a powerful movement, most likely above 10000.
But don't trust me. This isn't a recommendation. Do your homework.

no one can confirm when the price of bitcoin rises or falls ... we can only predict based on previous experience ... hopefully this year the price of crypto will rise ...

i doubt 3.5-3.6 is the bottom.

change is not very fast and tends to undergo changes that are not too drastic. we are still in an uncertain phase, the price of bitcoin will never be able to survive the exact price. changes occur, decreases and increases will always be there every minute. when more people need bitcoin then the price will increase and when more people sell bitcoin then it will reduce the price of bitcoin. Such a scheme will always occur because the price of bitcoin is very much determined by the demand factor.

just drawing lines and triangles on the price chart are meaningless.. thats not bitcoin analysis. thats not even technical analysis.
thats just dumb "trend" analysis. which i refer anyone who does this as trend anals.. not TA's(technical analysts)

but just using price data and thinking the price is the price because only the price is not anywhere close to technical analysis
anyone can draw any lines on a chart and randomly change the first point of a line to be 1 month or 12 months ago which will result in a different angle, leading to different results. so it becomes meaningless to base numbers on just lines drawn randomly on a price chart

instead do some technical analysis.
think about the mining:market dynamic which has always been at play. for the last 9+ years
its the game theory of "how to get BTC at the cheapeast price.. mining it or buying it"
even hal finney mentioned it in his first post on this forum.

heres a tip
look at the hashrate
(hashrate in october 2013(asics birth) sparked a upward movement that sparked the 2013 price movement)
(hashrate in october 2018(asics next gen 28thash swaps) sparked a downward movement that sparked the november 2018 price movement downward)

yes after the spark (reaction) alot of FOMO over extended the movement direction too much, which is called speculation. so dont expect to use hashrate as a guarantee minute by minute predictor.. speculation (volatile price) is varied compared to the underlying VALUE support

in short
unless we see a large hashrate dump. dont expect a supported price dump. as it cost X to mine btc, meaning if prices got too cheap people will buy more coin and correct the price back up to the mining:market dynamic

for the last 9+ years the price has always had a healthy price at or above the mining:market dynamic