My predictions?
1. The USD will stay around forever as a measurement device. Much of today's wealth worldwide is measured in US Dollars, and I think as things get even more globalized, this will increase. Prices for goods and services, salaries, people's measurement of their own wealth and company's cash flows will be measured in US Dollars.
It will depend on whether the us dollar can maintain or improve their position. Many are trying to make dollar fall in act of dedollarization and other nations are very well intentioned to do this. So if their currency falls, it might not be the global currency anymore.
What does it mean to be a "global currency" though? I am talking of its use purely as a
measurement device in order to figure out how much money to charge for things, or how much money you "have". Inflation of the USD wouldn't change this. The USD has inflated probably 3x in my lifetime, but I still know what I should personally pay my gardener per hour. I wouldn't know how much Bitcoin unless... I converted the value to USD.
To me, USD is akin to.. the English language as a standard "common tongue" means of communicating.
2. Digital currencies (not blockchain-based) will replace today's cash transactions for "small" things and online content, and these transactions will partially replace credit cards and payment services (PayPal et. al.) as well.
This is already happening. Many people are already cashless but it does not pertain to credit cards or such.
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I'm pretty much cashless these days, but I wish I didn't have to use my CCs or PayPal for any purchase under say $100. Right now it's ludicrous that buying something from a vending machine requires an exchange or personal information--and I don't even dare trust the average content charge e.g. for a news story. All of that stuff really needs
digital currency that can operate without identity just like cash. No digital currency has crossed over into the mainstream yet (although some of us are working on that
).
3. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin et. al. will remain as high-end meme investment instruments and stores of wealth. Non-blockchain digital currencies will take over the low end of the meme investment market.
What do you mean meme? Bitcoin is far from being a meme investment.
I mean an investment people make purely based on the name and how it makes them feel. For most people who invest in Bitcoin, the investment is in the name, "Bitcoin". They don't know what "decentralized" means, and their investment is actually just an entry in some central database at a broker. They are buying the word, "Bitcoin" because they think the word, "Bitcoin" will be worth more in the future.
Bitcoin's
actual utility is extremely narrow since it isn't even a very good means of clandestine value transfer because of chain analysis. And it's absolutely unthinkable as a mainstream means of transacting. Most will pay more for Bitcoin than they do for Ether for the same reason they pay more for the same exact shirt with a Gucci logo on it versus a Nike logo versus Fruit of the Loom.